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Good evening everyone,
As I mentioned last Friday,
I will not be able to upload tomorrow night as I will be floating across the ocean towards home sweet home!
So the next upload will be Wednesday night.
without further adieu.
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EURUSD
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We have the same problem this evening as on Friday evening!
The action today was generally expected,
with a fall off a possible wave (ii) high to begin wave (iii).
But the decline is not sufficient yet to confirm that view.
We need a break of 1.1193 in five waves to strengthen the short term count.
A break of 1.1106 would pretty much confirm the bearish count.
Tomorrow;
Watch for 1.1280 to hold and further declines to begin wave 'i' of (iii).
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GBPUSD
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Todays action has shifted the form of wave [ii] in favor of a 3,3,5 flat correction.
Wave (a) is in three waves,
and wave (b) fits a three wave form best.
So we should expect a five wave rise in wave (c) of [ii] to complete this correction.
From this point on,
the price should trace out a small head and shoulders pattern around the wave [ii] high.
This will signal the beginning of wave [iii] down.
Tomorrow;
watch for wave (b) to hold above 1.2382
and wave (c) to begin.
Wave (c) will be confirmed with a break of 1.2578.
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USDJPY
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USDJPY is holding above the recent low at 107.20 so far.
And the action today was very corrective looking to the downside.
We do not have confirmation of a turn up into wave (iii) yet,
but this is a good start.
If the price breaks above 109.00 this week,
that will likely confirm the trend has turned into wave (iii).
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave 'i' of (iii) to continue higher to break 108.37 at wave 'b'.
107.20 must hold.
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DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS
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The DOW opened lower this morning,
and then traded only marginally above that level throughout the day.
It is too early to get excited about a crash scenario just yet,
but we are getting there slowly but surely!
Over the coming week,
I want to see five waves lower develop in wave (i) down.
Along with a break of 26650 at wave (iv).
this type of action will strengthen the bearish case once again.
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave (i) down to continue.
The recent all time high must hold now.
If we do get a new high again it will likely be short lived,
as the alternate count will only allow for a rally to a top at about 27500
before turning down to begin the bear-market.
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GOLD
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Gold is holding above the 1400 level at wave 'iv' today,
this strengthens the case for another high to develop in wave 'v' of (i),
as shown on the short term count.
This extended wave 'v' pink should reach up to the 1500 level again
to bring price up towards the upper trend channel line at wave (i) blue.
Wave (ii) should then correct back to 1400 again in three waves.
If the price continues lower from here
and we get a break of the 1400 level sooner,
that will trigger the alternate count, and wave (ii) will simply begin sooner.
Tomorrow;
1400 must hold to stay with the current count.
Watch for wave '3' of 'v' to continue higher and break 1453 again.
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U.S CRUDE OIL
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The action off Fridays lows has a three wave form to it,
this action suggests the rise is corrective in nature
rather than the beginning of a new five wave rally in wave [c] of '2'.
With this in mind I have switched to the bearish short term count this evening.
If I am correct here,
We are about to see a fresh decline begin in Crude oil,
which should carry the price back towards 40.00 again in wave '3' blue.
But first we need a clear impulse wave in place before that begins.
Today three wave rally is labelled as wave (ii) complete.
Or a larger wave (a) of [ii] as shown in the short term count.
If the price falls below 54.84 tomorrow,
that will favor the current count.
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave 'i' of (iii) to begin and break support at 54.84.
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US 10 yr Treasuries.
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The drop off Fridays high seems to be in a three wave form.
So this action is more likely corrective,
and is best viewed as part of wave (c) still underway.
That marks todays low as wave 'iv' of (c),
with another high in wave 'v' of (c) left to complete the bearish signal.
Wave (c) must complete below 128.43.
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave (c) to complete in the area of 127.90.
then we should see a return lower to begin wave (i).
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SILVER
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The idea of a three wave decline in wave 'iv' is holding up today.
The market is retracing to a lower high below wave 'iii' this evening.
This should be followed by another drop below 16.04 again
to complete a three wave correction in wave 'iv'.
Then I will be looking higher again in wave 'v' of (iii).
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave 'iv' to drop again below 16.04.
Wave 'iv' should hold above 15.55 as shown.
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S&P 500.
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The S&P is correcting higher in three waves today off Fridays lows.
This action is in line with the bearish count for sure.
And this three wave correction is viewed as wave 'ii' of (iii) to the downside.
A further decline tomorrow which breaks 2973 cash again will signal that wave (iii) has begun.
We did not get a new low today,
so there is a possibility that wave (ii) will create a larger three wave pattern and complete at 3000,
and then decline in wave (iii) later in the week.
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave (iii) to begin with a break of 2973.
If the market falls significantly this week
and takes out the previous wave [ii] level at 2864,
that will signal that the top is in for the stock market.
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