Good evening folks.
EURUSD.
EURUSD 1hr.
EURUSD 4hr.
EURUSD daily.
After another rally today I have now committed to the alternate count for EURUSD.
This involves a large and ongoing triangle in wave [B].
And this is best viewed on the daily chart.
EURUSD is riding higher today in wave (iii) of [v] of ‘C’.
Wave [v] grey should trace out a five wave pattern higher,
and over the next few days this rally will likely hit 1.1494.
And by breaking this level,
that will confirm the new wave count.
Tomorrow;
We are still very close to turning lower in EURUSD in this new count also.
And wave ‘D’ of the triangle will bring prices back into the 1.0850 area in three waves.
Watch for wave [v] to complete soon,
and then watch for any weakness in the area of 1.1490 to begin wave ‘D’ down.
GBPUSD
GBPUSD 1hr.
GBPUSD 4hr.
GBPUSD daily.
Cable is falling today in line with wave [c] of ‘D’ as shown on the short term cart.
The pattern off the high so far shows todays declines as a developing wave (iii) of [v].
This should unfold in five waves also,
therefore the rise off the low this evening should only be corrective,
and wave (iii) should continue lower tomorrow.
Tomorrow;
The wave (i) low should act as resistance at 1.2565.
And wave ‘iii’ of (iii) must turn lower again tomorrow.
USDJPY.
USDJPY 1hr.
USDJPY 1hr.
USDJPY daily.
USDJPY has risen in a five wave form off the wave [ii] low at 106.64.
This can be viewed as wave ‘i’ of (i) now complete.
Wave ‘ii’ should again create a higher low above 106.64,
and wave ‘iii’ up should confirm the new wave count by breaking above 108.17 at the wave [i] high.
This action will signal wave wave [iii] up is now in force.
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘ii’ to hold above 106.65.
Wave ‘iii’ of (i) should then turn higher again.
DOW JONES.
DOW 1hr.
DOW 4hr
DOW daily.
The DOW is attracted to that upper trend channel line as a moth to the flame these days.
The rapid selloff yesterday has been full retraced again today,
so the decline into wave [i] of ‘3’ has been postponed once again.
Overall the pattern remains the same as it has for the last month.
Wave ‘2’ of (C) is still in force.
Wave ‘2’ is tracing out a three wave pattern to the upside.
And wave [c] of ‘2’ is now completing as a possible ending diagonal as shown.
Tomorrow;
If this short term count is correct,
then wave [c] should end very close to the upper convergence line and that is not far away now.
The wave (ii) low at 25400 is now the main focus to signal a major turn lower off the wave ‘2’ high.
Watch for any weakness off that upper trend line tomorrow to begin wave [i] down.
GOLD
GOLD 1hr.
GOLD 4hr.
GOLD daily.
Wave ‘c’ of (iv) made a slight new low below 1793 this afternoon
and then rebounded with some vigour off that low.
Todays rally should be enough to confirm that wave (v) of of [v] is now underway.
And this rally should carry up towards the 1850 level in five waves.
Lets look at the daily chart for a moment.
Once the next rally in wave (v) of [v] of ‘5’ of (3) completes,
then we could well be in for a sharp reversal in gold that has the potential to fall back into the 1550 area.
This decline will be a correction in wave (4) within the larger trend wave [3] up.
Once wave (4) is complete,
the rally should resume and carry gold to new highs in wave (5) of [iii].
I just want to raise that flag now,
and if we see a decline back below 1745 again,
that will be the first signal that wave (4) has begun.
Tomorrow;
Wave (v) of [v] should continue higher in five waves.
Wave (v) must hold above 1789.
CRUDE OIL.
CRUDE OIL 1hr.
CRUDE OIL 4hr.
CRUDE OIL daily.
Even though we have another small rally in place today,
the price is failing to break out above the 41.00 handle continuously over the last week.
With this in mind,
I am still open to the alternate count which shows to top in place for wave (4) at the recent highs at 41.47.
This whole sideways range that has been in play for the last month
can still be viewed as a large head and shoulders pattern.
The margin for error is small on this one,
but if we fall back below 38.00 again,
that action will favor the bearish alternate count.
So keep that in mind.
Tomorrow;
back to the main count.
A break of 41.10 will confirm that wave [v] up is underway.
watch for wave (iii) of [v] to push higher tomorrow.
S&P 500.
S&P 500 1hr
S&P 500 4hr
S&P 500 daily.
Todays reversal to a lower high is viewed as wave (ii) of [i] now in place at the high of the session.
Yesterdays high came in at 3235,
That level must hold in order to build a new impulsive structure to the downside.
It is crunch time for the S&P now,
If we see a clean impulsive decline back below 3100 again,
that will be a good signal that wave (iii) of [i] is underway.
The larger goal from here is to build that bearish impulse wave as shown labelled wave [i] and [ii].
And that action will spell and end to the relentless rally that we have endured over the last few months.
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave (ii) to hold below 3235.
Wave (iii) down will break 3100 easily and should continue lower to the next support at 2995.
SILVER.
SILVER 1hr
SILVER 4hr.
SILVER daily.
I am showing todays rally in silver as part of a larger corrective wave (iv) blue.
The initial decline off the high is wave ‘a’,
wave ‘b’ rallied to a lower high today so far.
And wave ‘c’ should then fall again into about 18.70 to complete the three wave pattern.
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘c’ to begin with a drop below 19.00 again.
Wave (iv) must hold above 18.06 on the lower end.
Although I expect 18.40 should offer significant support.