Good evening to you folks, and the Lord’s blessings to you all tonight.

Here I go again on my own!

Bon soir from sunny France, mes amis!

I am back in action this weeks folks, I am sitting out front of our little cabin in a campsite in Brittany France.
I am red and roasted like a tomato,
and we are all pretty happy swimming in the pool and eating ice-cream and baguette’s for the last week.
All is well in my little world,
the same can’t be said for so many people around the globe tonight,
but I am thankful to the Lord almighty that my family is taken care of today.

I want to thank all of you for your patience last week in allowing me to remove myself from the world of markets and political machinations for a while.
It was refreshing to not think about those things for a while at least.
So, thank you again.

I am still on holidays,
and because of that I will be keeping the nightly updates short and sweet this week. (hopefully)
But I suspect that something from me each night, is better than nothing from your perspective!
So on we go into the charts to see what the patterns have been up to over the last week.

EURUSD.

EURUSD 1hr.

EURUSD 4hr.

EURUSD daily.

EURUSD is flirting with a negative print to start the week.
I suspect we will get there to complete wave [v] as shown by the end of the week.
And at that point I do think we will see a more sustainable low form in wave ‘C’ of (B) over the following week.
At this point is looks like wave (iii) of [v] is completing with a little more downside left.
Wave (iv) will correct higher by midweek.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘v’ of (iii) to complete with a dip below the 100.00 level again.

GBPUSD

GBPUSD 1hr.

GBPUSD 4hr.

GBPUSD daily.

Cable is forming a larger wave (iv) blue now, with a three wave drop into a double bottom today.
This pattern suggests a new low will form in wave (v) close to the 1.1600 area when complete.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘c’ of (iv) to hit 1.2050 again to complete a flat correction in wave (iv).
Wave (v) will wait until after midweek to fall again if this pattern proves correct.

USDJPY.

USDJPY 1hr.

USDJPY 4hr.

USDJPY daily.

USDJPY pushed to a new high again and broke the previous topping pattern.
It seems the action over the last weeks has formed a triangle.
I have labelled this wave (iv) of [v].
And now we have a new high in wave (v) of [v] today.

A triangle is always indicative of a topping pattern in play.
So my outlook is not changing here longer term.
I think we will see a five wave rally to a new high in wave (v).
and then I will look for that reversal lower high to begin next week.

DOW JONES.

DOW 1hr.

DOW 4hr

DOW daily.

The DOW has managed a few more days of buoyancy over the last week,
to form a more complex lower high in wave ‘ii’ as shown.
I am not changing my outlook here either.
This pattern looks corrective to the upside.
And with that,
it should be retraced fully over the coming weeks as wave ‘iii’ of (iii) takes over.

The only viable alternate that will allow for some more upside is that wave (ii) is tracing out a larger flat.
In that case wave ‘c’ of (ii) will push towards 32000 again before turning lower into wave (iii) again.
I do not favor this idea at the moment.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘1’ of ‘iii’ of (iii) to drop back below the wave ‘b’ low at 30350 again.
A break of 30000 again will signal wave ‘iii’ of (iii) is underway.

GOLD

GOLD 1hr.

GOLD 4hr.

GOLD daily.

Gold is going full bear this week and now it looks like wave ‘C’ of (4) will form a new low near the 1650 area to complete in a few weeks from now.
The action before last week was very indecisive,
and I found it very hard to call that the beginning of wave ‘iii’ down.
However,
last week brought a new acceleration lower to confirm wave ‘iii’.
And now we are looking at a low forming in wave ‘iii’ of (iii) of [v].

This week will be dominated with a consolidation in wave (iv) if this count is correct.
and then wave (v) will do the final damage to complete that larger pattern next week.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘iii’ of (iii) to find a low with a break of 1720.
Wave ‘iv’ of (iii) will likely correct higher into the 1750 area again.

CRUDE OIL.

CRUDE OIL 1hr.

CRUDE OIL 4hr.

CRUDE OIL daily.

Crude did finally accelerate lower last week as the pattern suggested,
but the rally on Friday and today have ruled out the previous pattern I was working with.

I am now looking at last weeks low as the new low for wave ‘1’ blue.
And the rally off that low is tracking higher in three waves into wave ‘2’.
Wave ‘2’ should reach that 110 area again to complete three waves up.
and then wave ‘3’ of (3) down will come our way with a shocking decline on the cards for that one.

Tomorrow;
I am looking at todays sideways action as wave [b] of ‘2’.
There is a three wave pattern complete in wave [b],
but I am not sure at all if wave [b] is complete yet.

Watch for todays lows at wave (c) of [b] to hold at 98.70.
Wave [c] of ‘2’ should trace out a five wave rally from here to the end of the week.

S&P 500.

S&P 500 1hr

S&P 500 4hr

S&P 500 daily.

The S&P has avoided destruction in wave ‘iii’ of (iii) of [iii] so far.
But I am still pretty confident that large more lower will come our way sooner rather than later in that third wave acceleration.

Todays lower high is viewed as wave ‘2’ of ‘iii’.
And wave ‘3’ of ‘iii’ is looming large dead ahead if this short term count is correct.

What needs to happen here is for a renewed decline to take the market below 3690 again to signal wave ‘iii’ is actually in force here.
Wave ‘iii’ should hit 3380 at a minimum,
That level marks the point where wave ‘i’ and ‘iii’ reach equality.
But ideally wave ‘iii’ will extend lower than that.
We should know soon enough where we stand regarding wave ‘iii’.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘2’ of ‘iii’ to hold that lower high.
A break below 3737 again will signal wave ‘3’ of ‘iii’ has begun.

SILVER.

SILVER 1hr

SILVER 4hr.

SILVER daily.

Silver put in a new low for wave [iii] of ‘5’ at 18.90 last week.
The price has basically flat lined off that low since that point.
I am looking at this action as a correction in wave [iv].
And wave (b) should form a small higher low above 18.90 over the next few sessions.
Wave (c) of [iv] will rally back above 18.50 again to complete this consolidation.
WAve [v] is saved for next week,
and that wave could see a break of 18.00 again to complete.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave (b) to complete above 18.90.
Wave (c) could be underway by Wednesday evening at this rate.