Daily Elliott Wave Analysis – 07-11-19 – COT sends us a warning!

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Hello everyone.

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EURUSD

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It seems like the wave (ii) correction is on track now for EURUSD.
Wave 'a' of (ii) topped out at the previous fourth wave.
And wave 'b' of (ii) is now underway,
this should complete above 1.1193 after a small three wave decline.
Wave 'c' should then carry higher to about 1.1325.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave 'b' to hold above 1.1193.

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GBPUSD

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The correction in wave [ii] green reached up to the previous fourth wave at 1.2590 today,
and immediately sold off without breaching the level.
I am counting this failure as wave 'a' of (a) of [ii].
The price should continue to hold above 1.2438 in wave 'b'
and wave 'c' of (a) is expected to reach above 1.26 to complete.

Tomorrow;
Watch for a three wave pattern to complete in wave (a) of [ii].
So far I am counting wave [ii] as a flat correction,
but this may change as we proceed!

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USDJPY

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USDJPY took a hit this morning,
which brought us close to invalidating this wave count.
But the price has rebounded so far this evening off the session low at 107.85, keeping the current interpretation alive for now.

I am open to the idea that wave (ii) was a running flat as shown in the alternate count.
either way,
price must now hold above 107.85 and continue higher into wave (iii).

Tomorrow;
watch for wave 'iii' of (iii) to begin with a push up towards 108.80 again.
107.85 must hold.

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DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS

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The DOW actually broke above 27000 for the first time ever today.
The market is off a little this evening,
and this new all time high fits with a rally in wave 'iii' of (v).
The price has reached the minimum requirement for wave (v),
but I think there is a little room for another rally tomorrow to end the week.
We will see how that goes.

Wave (v) is nearing completion now,
and we may even get the initial turn down early next week.

For tomorrow;
Watch for another possible rally in wave 'v' of (v) to complete this lunatic rally!

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GOLD

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Gold is still stuck in a sideways formation after falling again today.
This decline more or less rules out the counts shown last night.
So tonight,
I have shown another interpretation of this action.

Wave 'b' of (ii) may be tracing out a triangle before falling again in wave 'c' of (ii).
The series of lower highs and higher lows surely points that way for now.

so for tomorrow;
Watch for wave 'b' to continue to contract in range.
wave 'b' should stay within 1389 on the low side,
and complete below 1426 on the high side.
Wave 'c' should begin next week.

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U.S CRUDE OIL

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No major movement today in crude oil.
The current interpretation still stands,
and wave [c] of '2' will likely follow the stock market higher over the coming days.
IF this count is to remain valid,
then price must hold above 57.60 as wave [c] continues.
A break of that level will rule out this count.
While a break 56.08 will signal that wave '3' down is beginning.

Tomorrow;
watch for wave (iv) to hold above 57.60.

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US 10 yr Treasuries.

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Bonds nose dived today in wave (b) of [ii].
The price has reached a new low below wave (v),
but I suspect this is part of an expanded flat wave [ii],
in this case wave (b) is expected to create a new low.
Wave (c) should continue higher tomorrow with the minimum target being the wave (a) high at 127.61.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave (c) to push higher again to complete a three wave correction in wave [ii] green.
A brak of 126.47 will signal that wave [ii] has already completed.

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SILVER

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The recent bounce in silver has proved corrective today,
the price has dropped again and ruled out last nights bullish count.
As a result,
I have now shown a larger wave (ii) underway,
this allows for another low to form in wave 'c' of (ii) in the area of wave 14.80.
This is also where the price reaches the 62% retracement level of wave (i) blue.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave 'c' of (ii) to continue lower and hit 14.88 at a minimum.

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S&P 500.

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The S&P has failed at 3000 again today.
Is the market sending us a message?

The COT data shows a lopsided market again,
with money managers now holding the largest net long position since the highs of January 2018.
This does not bode well that is for sure.
https://www.tradingster.com/cot/futures/fin/13874%2B

The short term count allows for another slight new high in wave (v) to occur.
the current action looks corrective in a small fourth wave.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave 'v' of (v) to turn higher and reach about 3020.
support at 2958 must hold for now.

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