Good evening to you all my brothers and sisters.
If nothing else,
this week has proven to me that the euphoric mood still has a grip on stock market.
The underlying assumptions that are begin used as justification for the rally are falling away day by day.
And the sustainability of this rally is even more shaky than it was back in February.
While we wait for the final few deck chairs to be positioned on the Titanic deck,
The ship is drifting underwater day by day.
And it will not be long before the boat splits in two.
Women and children first please
EURUSD.
EURUSD 1hr.
EURUSD 4hr.
EURUSD daily.
EURUSD has now traced out a small lower high off the wave (ii) high earlier this week.
Despite all the evidence favoring the alternate count,
the main count still manages to hold onto preference for the moment.
I have labelled this decline as wave ‘i’ and ‘ii’ of (iii).
But this count does require a large drop early next week in wave ‘iii’ of (iii).
And wave ‘iii’ should drop into support in the 1.1000 area.
Monday;
watch for wave ‘iii’ down to pull the price lower again.
A drop below 1.1217 will signal wave ‘iii’ has begun.
GBPUSD
GBPUSD 1hr.
GBPUSD 4hr.
GBPUSD daily.
The same is true for cable tonight.
The price is holding below the wave [b] high.
And that should lead to a drop in wave [c] over the coming days.
The alternate count in cable also calls for a drop to begin but at one degree higher than the main count.
in both cases the price must hold below 1.2811 next week.
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave [c] to drop below 1.2438 at a minimum.
USDJPY.
USDJPY 1hr.
USDJPY 1hr.
USDJPY daily.
USDJPY is lower again today also and we now seem to be moving into wave (iii) down.
The main count can only be confirmed with a drop below 106.07.
So until that happens,
the alternate count is still very much a possibility.
If the price reverses higher on Monday and breaks above 107.78,
that action will trigger the alternate count.
Monday;
Watch for wave ‘iii’ of (iii) to push lower and break 106.07 at a minimum.
DOW JONES.
DOW 1hr.
DOW 4hr
DOW daily.
Despite a promising start to the week,
the rally today has thrown the short term count up in the air again.
The move lower off the recent high is in three waves so far.
This can be viewed as a series of impulse waves off the high,
or possibly a running flat wave (i) and (ii).
In this case Mondays trade must be a sharp move lower again into wave (iii).
The alternate count has not been ruled out yet which allows for a larger wave [c] of ‘2’ to complete above 26611.
Monday;
It is make or break time for this short term count.
A break above 26297 cash again will trigger the alternate count.
GOLD
GOLD 1hr.
GOLD 4hr.
GOLD daily.
Gold has fallen in three waves off the high at 1817 this week.
This action is corrective so far.
And it should lead to a reversal higher again next week to begin wave (v).
I have labelled the decline so far as a complete wave (iv).
But I also must remain vigilant the fact that this structure can develop into a larger combination wave.
Monday;
If the price holds above 1789 next week,
then this bullish interpretation will remain the favor count.
A break above 1817 again will signal wave (v) is underway.
CRUDE OIL.
CRUDE OIL 1hr.
CRUDE OIL 4hr.
CRUDE OIL daily.
The rally in crude has again defied the downside and postponed the inevitable.
I have had a rethink of the recent action and am now looking at the possibility of a triangle wave [iv].
And then todays rally can be viewed as wave [v].
I do not want to see this rally continue much above the recent price range
before turning lower again into the the next phase.
So next week should allow enough time to complete wave [v] and then begin wave [i].
Monday;
41.47 marks the target for wave [v].
Any weakness after a break of that level will be considered the beginning of wave [i] down.
S&P 500.
S&P 500 1hr
S&P 500 4hr
S&P 500 daily.
The S&P charged higher today and has ruled out the recent count.
The market seems intent on creating that last hurrah this evening in wave (v) of [c] of ‘2’.
This new count is not much different that the previous count I was working on this week,
only now we have a larger fourth wave in place at this weeks lows.
And the rally off that low today is wave (v) of [c].
Monday;
Wave [c] of ‘2’ must hold below the recent June high at 3231.
It is about time that we have another large leg down in this market after a solid month of grinding hikgher in wave ‘2’.
So it is crunch time for the S&P next week.
We have a clear initial support low at the wave (iv) low now in place.
So a break of that level will signal wave [i] down has begun.
SILVER.
SILVER 1hr
SILVER 4hr.
SILVER daily.
I am looking at the action in silver over the last few days
and I am wondering if we have a triangle in play now for wave ‘iv’ of (iii).
This count will allow for another few days of stagnant sideways trading before moving higher again into wave ‘v’ of (iii).
The price must hold above 18.40 for this count to remain valid now,
so we are cutting it close after the sharp drop early Thursday.
Monday;
watch for wave ‘iv’ to continue sideways and hold above 18.40 early next week.
That brings another week to a close.
God Bless you all this weekend.
Until wee meet again on the other side,
farewell,
enda.