Good evening folks,
the market is closed tomorrow so there will not be any update tomorrow night,
but I will post the video update in the afternoon anyway.
Here are some really interesting charts that have crossed my path this week.
All of which suggest buyer beware in terms of the stock market.
EURUSD.
EURUSD 1hr.
EURUSD 4hr.
EURUSD daily.
EURUSD just pipped above the previous high at 1.1287 this afternoon.
this completed a three wave expanded flat correction in wave ‘ii’.
Immediately after breaking the high,
the price then reversed lower quite sharply.
This action is a good signal that wave ‘iii’ down is now underway.
And a break of this weeks low at 1.1184 should confirm that count.
Monday;
Watch for todays high at 1.1301 to hold and wave ‘iii’ of (iii) down to take over next week.
Wave (iii) should push back below 1.1000 at a minimum.
GBPUSD
GBPUSD 1hr.
GBPUSD 4hr.
GBPUSD daily.
Cable seems to have completed the larger running flat correction in wave [b] at todays high.
Wave (c) of [b] reached 1.2528 which is 13 pips below the wave (a) high.
And off that high the price dropped in a possible wave (i) of [c].
Monday;
Ideally wave (i) will drop below 1.2400 before correcting higher again.
We should know early next week which wave count is more fitting.
USDJPY.
USDJPY 1hr.
USDJPY 1hr.
USDJPY daily.
USDJPY has corrected to a lower high below wave [b] at 108.17 today.
The price seems to be setting up for a de line next week in wave [c].
This wave should trace out a five wave decline,
with a minimum target at 106.07.
The alternate count can only be ruled out if we get a break of that minimum target.
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave (iii) of [c] to continue lower into that initial target area.
DOW JONES.
DOW 1hr.
DOW 4hr
DOW daily.
This holiday weekend has given the animal spirits a poke in the behind all week,
and allowed the market to rally into todays highs!
The DOW is ending the day with a downward spike off the session high.
Unlike the S&P,
the DOW did not trigger the alternate count yet,
and this move in the last few hours shows up the real reluctance to do so.
While wave (ii) has pushed hard against a headwind it seems,
upward momentum in the last week has continued to decline.
4hr momentum is now putting in a very weak further lower high below the last extreme reading on June 8th.
That June 8th Momentum high is itself a lower high,
reading below the March 27th high in both MACD and RSI.
The big picture is still showing a sustained momentum divergence to the downside.
Monday;
Watch for wave (iii) to take over next week.
26200 must hold,
and this evenings small decline should continue lower to create wave ‘i’ of (iii).
GOLD
GOLD 1hr.
GOLD 4hr.
GOLD daily.
It is interesting that Gold is trading at 1776 on the last day of trading for July 4th weekend!
Take from that what you will!
The price bounced off a small lower high at 1757 just before the US open.
And we are holding this level so far this evening.
There are two main ways that I can read the wave ‘iii’ and ‘iv’ patterns now.
Wave ‘iii’ of (iii) can be taken as the June 24th high as per the alternate count.
Or This weeks high at 1788.
Both interpretations are equally valid now.
And both should lead to a rally back into the upper trend line above 1800.
so far the low at wave (i) blue at 1745 has held.
And this level should continue to hold for the forseeabove future.
Monday;
Wave ‘v’ of (iii) is expected to push higher into that 1800 level over the next few sessions.
A break of 1788 is the minimum target for wave ‘v’.
CRUDE OIL.
CRUDE OIL 1hr.
CRUDE OIL 4hr.
CRUDE OIL daily.
The euphoric surge in the stock market this week has spilled over into the crude oil market.
And both markets are in absolute denial of the fact that the most recent financial bubble has actually popped.
the bubble went on for years into the February highs,
and it was looking for a pin to pop the madness.
So here we are,
crude has rallied about $80USD a barrel since that negative price crash low.
This is the biggest two month price rally in history if I’m not mistaken.
And it is time to leave this high behind and turn once again into the abyss.
Monday;
Wave (c) of [ii] is now shown as an ending diagonal.
I think this pattern accounts for the choppy action quite well.
And this should be followed by a decline next week into wave [iii].
watch for wave [iii] down to begin with a break back below 39.00.
S&P 500.
S&P 500 1hr
S&P 500 4hr
S&P 500 daily.
People couldn’t help themselves this week!
They simply had to bid up the market to form a larger wave ‘2’ blue.
Although we have a new wave count triggered in the S&P now,
We also have a bearish non confirmation in place,
with the DOW failing to make a new high today.
The price is actually showing some weakness this evening again.
So I will have to wait and see on Monday if this develops into the expected decline in wave [i] as shown.
Monday;
Another three wave correction is now done in wave ‘2’ blue.
So I am waiting for the inevitable decline in wave ‘3’ to come in soon.
Wave [i] of ‘3’ should be a short sharp shock to the system,
and I would expect it to retrace much if not all of the recent rally in wave [c] of ‘2’.
Watch for an initial five wave decline off the high to signal wave (i) of [i] is underway.
SILVER.
SILVER 1hr
SILVER 4hr.
SILVER daily.
Silver is back up off the lows of the session this evening.
The market dropped in three waves and hit the lower trend channel line early in the session,
but the spike higher off that low is again in line with a possible move into wave ‘iii’ as shown.
As I mentioned before,
as long as the market keeps printing higher lows off wave ‘2’,
then the bullish case is intact.
Monday;
We do need to see wave (iii) take control now and push back above 18.43.
Watch for 17.74 to hold at wave ‘ii’.
That does it this week folks.
I hope you guys and galls over in the states have an enjoyable celebration.
God’s Blessing to you all.
until next week.
enda.