Good evening and welcome to a new week.
I am wayyyyyyy behind on emails again!
Forgive me if you are waiting for a reply, I will get back to you, but I am snowed under lately!
On with the show.
EURUSD.
EURUSD 1hr.
EURUSD 4hr.
EURUSD daily.
The downside bias is still intact tonight after another ‘net zero’ trade today!
The price did rally early on this morning and completed a further lower high below the wave (ii) high at 1.1349.
But that rally still keeps the overall three wave rise off wave ‘i’,
and since making the high at 1.1287,
the price has again spiked lower.
This fresh decline is now viewed as wave ‘iii’ of (iii) now underway,
and the decline is expected to continue for the rest of the week.
Tomorrow;
wave ‘iii’ will be confirmed with a break of 1.1190 again.
And the larger wave (iii) in grey will be confirmed with a break of 1.1168.
This cluster of levels should now act as the point of acceleration into wave (iii).
GBPUSD
GBPUSD 1hr.
GBPUSD 4hr.
GBPUSD daily.
Cable continued lower today which has forced my hand this evening!
The action off 1.2541 at wave [b] has developed into an impulsive form.
So I think it is safe to assume that wave [c] of ‘D’ is now underway.
I have switched to the alternate count now for wave [b].
And the target for wave [c] lies in the same area near the previous wave [b] at 1.2067.
Wave [c] will reach equality with wave [a] at 1.2060.
so that gives us a nice tight target zone to aim for over the coming days.
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘iii’ of [c] to continue lower.
Any correction in wave ‘iv’ should hold below the previous wave [a] low at 1.2328.
USDJPY.
USDJPY 1hr.
USDJPY 1hr.
USDJPY daily.
USDJPY has rallied in five waves off the low at 106.07 now.
So the pattern in wave [b] now has a completed 3,3,5 internal structure.
This classifies wave [b] as an expanded flat correction,
by the fact that the price has broken above the previous wave (a) low at 107.63.
If wave [b] is now completing,
then we should see a return lower over the coming days in wave [c].
And the minimum target for wave [c] lies at 106.07 again.
As we have now completed a five wave rally off last weeks low,
this could be interpreted as the initial move higher of a new uptrend.
So I am also watching the alternate count for wave ‘C’ of (E).
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave [b] to complete and then turn lower into wave [c].
A break of 106.07 again will confirm the main wave count.
DOW JONES.
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DOW 4hr
DOW daily.
After an initial break below 25000 again this morning the market is back in the green at the close.
The action is hard to pin down as a corrective rally off the early lows,
so I am considering again the larger wave ‘ii’ alternate count as shown.
This count will allow for either a running flat correction that will complete very soon,
or an expanded flat where we make another high above 25769 at last Thursdays high.
Either way,
I think we are staring down the possibility of a decline in a third of a third acceleration now.
So the risks are running quite high now.
The main count views todays rally as an internal second wave correction higher within the larger wave (iii) down.
In that case we are already in the the danger zone.
Tomorrow;
watch for wave ‘iii’ down to gain strength with an early reversal.
The low at wave ‘1’ blue is critical support now.
If that level breaks as the market accelerated lower,
then we are in for an extended decline phase over the next month.
GOLD
GOLD 1hr.
GOLD 4hr.
GOLD daily.
Gold is holding steady above the 1764 highs at wave [iii] this evening.
This level is beginning to act as support now as we enter the next leg up in wave (iii) of [v].
The action throughout the day was choppy and corrective,
At the moment I am looking at this action as the beginning of wave ‘v’ of (iii),
with a further extension higher expected over the coming week as wave ‘v’ traces out five waves up.
Last weeks low at wave ‘iv’ came in at 1747,
this level is key support in the short term as a break of that level will favor either the short term alternate count shown circled in red,
or the larger wave [iv] idea that I have kept one eye on over the last while.
Tomorrow;
1747 must continue tho hold.
Watch for wave ‘v’ to continue higher and trace out a five wave pattern over the next few days.
The ideal target for wave ‘v’ of (iii) still lies up at the upper trend channel line at about 1810.
CRUDE OIL.
CRUDE OIL 1hr.
CRUDE OIL 4hr.
CRUDE OIL daily.
Crude completed three waves down overnight to close out wave (b),
and then the price put in a rapid rally in wave (c) throughout the day.
That action completes a three wave correction in wave [ii] green as we were expecting.
The high of the session just touched the 62% retracement level at 39.90.
And now we are seeing some weakness off the top as we close.
So as it stands;
The market fell in five waves off the recent highs to complete wave [i] down.
And now we have a three wave correction to the upside in wave [ii],
with a top in place at the 62% retracment level.
This action is pretty text book in terms of a bearish signal.
And now the scene is set for a decline to begin in wave [iii] over the coming days.
Tomorrow;
I want to see a drop off todays highs in five waves labelled wave (i) of [iii].
A further lower high below wave [ii] will signal wave [iii] has begun.
S&P 500.
S&P 500 1hr
S&P 500 4hr
S&P 500 daily.
The futures actually broke the 3000 level again this morning before the market staged a comeback later in the session.
Interestingly,
todays action does fit a three wave pattern pretty well so far.
So while the possibility exists that we could see wave ‘ii’ trace out a larger expanded flat pattern as per the alternate count.
I am equally prepared for an acceleration lower to begin in wave ‘iii’ of (iii) as shown.
And in that case,
todays lower high is viewed as a correction higher within wave ‘iii’.
Tomorrow;
Watch for a drop back below 3000 to confirm wave ‘iii’ down.
only a break of 3093 will trigger the alternate count for wave ‘ii’.
SILVER.
SILVER 1hr
SILVER 4hr.
SILVER daily.
Silver is holding another higher low after Fridays spike up to 17.95.
So the bullish pattern still holds and gains strength today.
Another break above 18.06 again will favor the idea that wave ‘i’ of (iii) is now underway.
I have changed the alternate count slightly this evening also.
The sideways action is possible to read as an ongoing triangle in wave [b] of ‘2’.
If we see another spike higher to break 18.20 again that will rule out this alternate count completely.
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘i’ of (iii) to take us back above the 18.00 handle at least tomorrow.
17.36 must hold in order to stick with the bullish short term pattern.
A break of that level will trigger the alternate count.