Good evening to you folks, and the Lord’s blessings to you all tonight.

I posted an update earlier on my summer holiday plans, you can find that here, https://bullwaves.org/summer-holidays-are-here-again/

EURUSD.

EURUSD 1hr.

EURUSD 4hr.

EURUSD daily.

It is another confusing day in the USDFX market.
The price action has not quite chosen a path yet in the short term pattern.
So I really am just waiting for a decisive move to happen
in order to confirm which is the correct way to view this pattern now.

Wave (iv) blue is getting more complex by the day here,
but so far this action has not ruled out the short term pattern yet.

There is a possibility that wave ‘c’ of (iv) is tracing out an ending diagonal pattern here.
And as long as the price holds below 1.0677,
then I think we can stick with the idea that wave (v) is yet to come to complete wave [v] down.

The alternate count for wave [iv] will be favored if we see a break of 1.0677.

Tomorrow;
Watch for that low at 1.0677 to hold.
If that breaks then we can look towards 1.0790 for a top in wave [iv].

A drop back below 1.0444 will signal wave (v) is underway.

GBPUSD

GBPUSD 1hr.

GBPUSD 4hr.

GBPUSD daily.

I have shown another possibility for the correction in wave (ii) today.
This involves a triangle wave ‘b’,
and another three wave pattern to a new high today in wave ‘c’.
So,
a complex combination wave may be complete at todays high.
A sharp decline tomorrow to break below 1.2160 will signal wave (iii) of [v] is underway.

Tomorrow;
1.2405 must hold.
Watch for wave (iii) down to begin.
A break of 1.2161 will signal wave ‘i’ of (iii) is underway.

USDJPY.

USDJPY 1hr.

USDJPY 4hr.

USDJPY daily.

The evidence for a top in wave (3) is building slowly now.

We are watching a possible correction in wave (ii) top out today.
If this is correct,
then we will see a return lower into wave (iii) of [i] by Wednesday at the latest.
A break of 134.25 add weight to this bearish count,
but overall I want to see a five wave pattern lower build this week to complete wave [i] down.
A break of the wave [iv] low at 131.48 will be the icing on the cake.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave (ii) to hold below 136.72.
wave (iii) should begin to fall again and break the wave (i) low at 134.25.

DOW JONES.

DOW 1hr.

DOW 4hr

DOW daily.

Todays small decline is more corrective in nature than the beginning of a large decline.
I have labelled this correction as wave ‘4’ of ‘c’ of (ii).
and if that is correct,
then we will see another small pop to the upside tomorrow to complete wave ‘5’ of ‘c’.
That will give us a clear three wave pattern higher in wave (ii).
The internal pattern of wave (ii) is 3,3,5,
so that classifies this wave as a flat correction.

All the pieces of the puzzle are pretty much in place now.
A three wave rally into the 50% retracement level.
And slowing momentum to the upside.
On the 4hr chart the price is holding below the 200ma again.
Another failure here could spell disaster for this market and kick off wave (iii) of [iii] of ‘3’.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘c’ of (ii) to top out by Tuesday evening.
We should see the initial moves lower into wave (iii) down by Midweek.
A break of 30000 later this week will begin wave (iii) down.

GOLD

GOLD 1hr.

GOLD 4hr.

GOLD daily.

Gold has been lost over the last few weeks I will admit that freely,
there is very little in the action to confirm or deny the bullish outlook.

One thing has changed for me though,
I am not confident anymore regarding the main bullish count.

I cannott rule it out completely yet,
but that key low at 1804 is getting close again after another decline today.
And a break of that low will favor the bearish alternate count.

The action over the last week is still counted as a correction.
And as such,
there is likely to be a rally this week to counter act the sluggish decline.

The question remains,
will this next rally kick off a big move higher into wave (iii).
Or will this simply be a short rally to close out the alternate wave (ii).

We will be able to answer this question over the coming few sessions.
so at least this week should return some valuable information to us.

Tomorrow;
Watch for that wave ‘ii’ low to hold at 1816.
Wave ‘iii’ up must begin by Wednesday to stay with this count.
1804 must hold.

CRUDE OIL.

CRUDE OIL 1hr.

CRUDE OIL 4hr.

CRUDE OIL daily.

Crude oil is racing to finish a correction in wave ‘2’ sooner than I thought.

The price rallied this afternoon again and broke above 107.00 again.
This action has opened up another possibility for wave [c] of ‘2’.
The price may now be completing an ending diagonal pattern in wave [c].
That pattern does explain the very choppy nature of the rally so far.
Also the rally today has pushed us close enough to the 50% retracement level of wave ‘1’ to be looking for signs of a top now.
All together,
I think we are closer to finishing this correction in wave ‘2’ than I did even last Friday.

Tomorrow;
WAtch for signs of a top forming in wave [c] of ‘2’.
If we see a five wave decline off a nearby top,
that will be a strong signal of the beginning of wave [i] of ‘3’.

S&P 500.

S&P 500 1hr

S&P 500 4hr

S&P 500 daily.

The S&P popped above the 50% retracement level if wave ‘i’ today,
and with that,
we have hit the upper end of the target range for wave ‘ii’ now.
The rally today was weak and is fading again this evening.
Also,
the price is very close to closing out that trend channel again.

In general the signs are mounting now that the top is near for this correction.
And if I am correct here,
then the next wave down will be a third of a third of a third.
This is the most dangerous part of a wave structure as it is usually the point where capitulation happens,
and the market tends to accelerate into the wave and stretch the pattern lower.
We should know soon enough if this is about to happen this week.
A quick reversal off that wave ‘ii’ top will be a sign that wave ‘iii’ of [iii] is about to begin.

Tomorrow;
WAtch for wave ‘ii’ to top out and reverse the gains made in wave ‘c’ of ‘ii’.
A break of 3800 again will signal that wave ‘iii’ has topped and wave ‘iii’ down is underway.

SILVER.

SILVER 1hr

SILVER 4hr.

SILVER daily.

Silver has turned lower with a reasonable spike today,
and with that I am beginning to rethink the alternate count tonight.
I can’t be certain until we get a break of the recent lows again at 20.60,
but if this decline continues tomorrow,
that will signal an early start to wave [iii] down.

AS for the main count.
This pattern has not been ruled out yet.
Only a break of 20.60 again will do that.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave [ii] to find a low above 20.60.
Wave (iii) of [c] will be confirmed with a break above 21.54 again.