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Good evening folks.

If you have time,

James Aitken is really worth a listen.

https://ttmygh.podbean.com/e/teg_0002/

 

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EURUSD.

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EURUSD 1hr.

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EURUSD finished wave (ii) as a running flat by failing to make a new high above 1.1352 last night.
The price is off the highs today and the chances are that we are now turning down into wave (iii) finally.

The confirmation of wave (iii) will come with a break of 1.1168 at the recent low,
But I think a break of 1.1211 at wave (i) again,
will signal that we have topped again.

Tomorrow;
watch for wave ‘i’ of (iii) down to break 1.1211 at a minimum.
Ideally the initial drop in wave ‘i’ will break 1.1168 if wave (iii) is going to accelerate lower.
1.1348 must hold.

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GBPUSD

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GBPUSD 1hr.

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Cable never reached the 50% retracement level today,
and instead turned down sharply.
That leaves me in a bit of limbo now.

At then moment I can’t tell if wave [b] green is complete at todays highs,
And todays drop is the beginning of wave [c] down.

Or;
if this drop is just an expanded flat wave (b) now complete,
and wave (c) of [b] is left to come.

If the price reverses back above 1.2500 tomorrow,
that will favor the main wave count shown.
And a break below 1.2328 will favor trigger the alternate count.

Tomorrow;
watch for wave (c) to reverse higher and complete a larger wave [b] pattern at the 50% retracement level.

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USDJPY.

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USDJPY 1hr.

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In true typical wave [b] form,
this pattern refuses to be nailed down at all.

The reversal higher in USDJPY is definitely causing a rethink today.
The price has retraced enough of the earlier decline to revisit the wave count.

I am looking at the larger wave [b] expanded flat idea again.
This count calls for wave (c) of [b] to hit 107.63 again before wave [c] returns lower again.

Tomorrow;
Wave (c) should break 107.23 to confirm this new count.
And then continue higher in five waves to break 107.63 again.

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DOW JONES.

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DOW 1hr.

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The DOW is down today off a possible wave (ii) high created at yesterday.

The market is actually off by about 1000 points at the low,
which is a sizable fall indeed.
but in terms of where we need to go,
it really is nothing to write home about yet!

The price is holding above the lows of the session right now after the close,
but I would like to see a continuation lower tomorrow,
in order to put some distance between wave (iii) and wave (i).

The ideal target for wave (ii) lies at the 162% extension level which comes in at 24563.
This level just so happens to match the previous low at wave ‘1’.
So if the market does continue lower tomorrow,
that level will likely offer support to complete wave (iii) and begin wave (iv).

Tomorrow;
Ideally todays selloff in wave (iii) will continue,
but I am not ruling out the idea that we get another step lower again,
in a lower degree ‘i’ ‘ii’ wave to begin wave (iii) down.
Either way, 26420 must hold.

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GOLD

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GOLD 1hr.

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Gold made a high at 1779 in the overnight trade last night.
That high brought wave (iii) up to match the size of the rally in wave (i) blue.

While this is a good starting point for wave (iii),
it is much below what I am expecting wave (iii) to achieve.

So, 1779 now marks the high of wave ‘iii’ of (iii) as shown on the hourly chart.
Ideally a correction in wave ‘iv’ should prove to be a shallow affair.
Wave ‘ii’ was a pretty deep correction,
and by the guideline of alteration between corrective waves,
wave ‘iv’ will not exceed the size of the correction made in wave ‘ii’.

I would like to see another consolidation in wave ‘iv’ as a triangle,
which will give way to a rally in wave ‘v’ of (iii).

The rally so far off the low at wave [iv] is in three waves.
That fact alone requires that we consider the possibility of a larger wave [iv] flat 3,3,5 correction.
I would obviously prefer that we avoid a return to that 1670 low again,
but I can’t dismiss this possibility out of hand.

Tomorrow;
watch for wave ‘iv’ to complete or at least to drift sideways in a triangle over the next few sessions.

The wave (i) high should offer support at 1745 again.

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CRUDE OIL.

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CRUDE OIL 1hr.

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Crude oil stepped lower off the high again today,
and not a moment too soon!
At the moment I am calling this decline wave (iii) of [i] to the downside.
Wave (iii) may be complete at todays lows,
but I favor another drop to create a clear five wave pattern within wave (iii) and a clear break below 37.00
it all depends on the size of the correction we get early tomorrow,
to indicate if wave (iv) has already begun.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave (iii) to push below 37.00 to complete a five wave pattern.
Wave (iv) will then take us into the weekend.

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S&P 500.

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S&P 500 1hr

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The S&P is moving lower today in a nice impulsive pattern so far.
I am not completely convinced of this pattern yet,
The drop off wave ‘2’ is messy so far.

But if we do see a follow through selloff tomorrow
which takes us back down below 3000 again,
that will be a big vote in favor of the current bearish count.
So we have work to do on the downside yet!

Tomorrow;
At this point 3075 marks the wave (i) low.
I would like to see price hold below that low and for wave (iii) to continue the push lower.

It is equally true that we might see wave (iii) extend into a larger pattern.
In that case we will see a three wave correction in wave ‘ii’ of (iii)
and then an acceleration lower into wave ‘iii’ of (iii).

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SILVER.

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SILVER 1hr

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Todays action has really thrown a spanner in the works of the short term count.
Some heavy selling emerged before the open in the US,
and that pushed the price back down to recent support at 17.30 again.
That level seems to have stopped the bleeding for now,
but the selloff has invalidated last nights count.

Tonight I am looking first at a larger wave (i) and (ii) scenario.
This is a bullish impulsive wave off the recent lows.
And should be followed by a rally into wave (iii) over the coming days.

The alternate count for wave ‘2’ is definitely staring at us now tonight.
This involves a larger flat correction in wave ‘2’ which could pull the price back into the 16.70 area again before we rally again in wave ‘3’.
Watch this space!

Tomorrow;
The price needs to rally and regain the losses soon,
in order to stick with this short term bullish count and rule out this alternate.

Watch for wave ‘i’ of (iii) to push back above 18.00 again to get this rally back on track.

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