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Good evening folks.

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EURUSD.

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EURUSD 1hr.

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The rally today has shifted EURUSD to the alternate count for wave (ii).
The price stopped just below the previous high at 1.1352
and has reversed off that level so far.

Right now this pattern is a running flat to the upside.
If wave (iii) down is about to start,
then we must see a decline begin now in wave ‘i’ of (iii).

Tomorrow;
1.1211 marks the wave (i) low,
a break of that level will signal wave (iii) has begun.
1.1423 must hold.

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GBPUSD

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GBPUSD 1hr.

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GBPUSD is cycling through wave [b] at an accelerated pace now it seems.
The overnight high at wave (a) came in at 1.2506.
This gave way to a flat correction in wave (b).
And now the price is rallying again in wave (c).
The target area remains the same starting at 1.2568 at the 50% retracement level.
The 62% retracement level comes in at 1.2626.
I am looking for wave [b] to complete in that range and then return lower into wave [c].

Tomorrow;
watch for wave (c) of [b] to complete over the next few sessions.
Wave [c] down should begin by the end of this week.

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USDJPY.

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USDJPY 1hr.

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The overnight trade moved higher off the base that was created at 106.70,
but that move was cut short today by a sharp move lower again.
This action now suggests that wave [b] completed at last weeks high of 107.63.
And now wave [c] is underway again.

Wave [c] can trace out a five waves lower from here.
Which would make wave ‘C’ a standard 5,3,5 zigzag pattern.
This is the outcome shown now on the short term chart.

If wave [c] is to reach equality with wave [a],
then wave [c] should hit 104.37.
That may prove to be a stretch goal at this point!
we will see soon enough.

Tomorrow;
Wave (ii) must hold at 107.23,
wave (iii) should continue lower for the rest of this week.
Price will probably reach into the 105.00 handle at a minimum in wave [c].

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DOW JONES.

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DOW 1hr.

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The market is still sitting in limbo between two interpretations for wave ‘2’ this evening.

We are still holding a lower high tonight after a gap higher this morning.
The market flatlined after that initial gap higher,
so the market has gone nowhere for most of the session in reality.

The main wave count calls the action off the high a leading diagonal,
and the rise into todays high is a three wave correction.

A move above 26451 will shift the balance in favour of the alternate count.
And that allows for a larger wave ‘2’ to form as shown.

however on the downside;
The wave (i) low lies at 25667,
if that level is broken it will signal the market is moving down into wave (iii) of [i].

Tomorrow;
We have two solid levels where the wave count will clarify itself.
Watch for a drop below 25667 to begin wave (iii).
26451 should hold to rule out the alternate count.

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GOLD

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GOLD 1hr.

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After a possible triangle correction within wave ‘iii’ yesterday,
this suggested a consolidation in the developing pattern.

And today we see another move higher above resistance again at 1764.
While we are moving in the right direction in general,
the price still refuses to accelerate into that third of a third scenario.
So I am keeping my eye on that 1764 level now as an indication level for weakness.
If that resistance now becomes support,
then we are set to continue higher towards the larger 1823 target in wave (iii).

Tomorrow;
watch for wave ‘iii’ of (iii) to continue higher for the rest of the week.
Any correction from here should find support at 1764.

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CRUDE OIL.

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CRUDE OIL 1hr.

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Crude really does look like a top is forming at the moment.
The price is creating a series of left shoulders at lower and lower degrees over the last while.
this action has driven the price higher of course,
but this pattern is signalling a culminating rally rather than a building phase.
The market has now set in stone a series of levels of support,
which if broken will immediately add momentum on the downside.

40.56 marks the immediate level at the wave [iii] high.
The price turned back below that level today.

The next level below us now is 37.40,
marking the internal fourth wave within wave [v].

Below that is 34.60,
And that forms the neckline of the whole top.
I think a solid break of that level will end this rally and herald in wave (5) down.

Tomorrow;
I want to see the market make an impulsive move lower over the coming days
and begin to take out these levels in wave [i] down.

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S&P 500.

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S&P 500 1hr

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Since the wave ‘2’ high at 3168 formed early last week,
the price has made a contineous series of lower highs
off some pretty serious spike rallies that just stopped dead.

Even though the price gapped higher in the aftermarket last night
and made a very slight new high today.
The price seems to have hit a wall to the upside again now.
And we have weakness this evening to end the day.

We have continuous deterioration in momentum on the daily and 4hr charts.
And all this comes on the lowest volume day since Christmas eve last.
With less than a third of last Fridays volume traded today.

Divergence is the word that hangs in my mind now.

Tomorrow;
All the indicators are pointing to a shifting trend now.
And wave (iii) down is expected this week.

Watch for any impulsive move below 3079 again which will favour a move into wave (iii).

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SILVER.

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SILVER 1hr

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Silver is pushing higher this evening and seems to be moving into wave ‘iii’ up.
The action is not a clear cut as in gold,
we have not broken out above recent highs for example.
But if we are in wave ‘iii’ of (iii) now,
then we should accelerate higher for the next few sessions and break above resistance with ease.
Until that happens.
I will remain vigilant and watch the higher lows that have been created off the wave ‘2’ low.
The first level that should hold lies at 17.65.

Tomorrow;
Watch for 17.65 to hold and wave ‘iii’ to push out above 18.18 at initial resistance.

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