Good evening to you folks, and the Lord’s blessings to you all tonight.

I wonder if you saw this interview with David Rosenberg from last week, it is a real eye opener and I recommend listening to it.

Inflation Is Hotter Than It’s Ever Been.

And this – Used-Truck Auction-Prices Plunge As Freight Market Cools

And then this – US Existing Home Sales Tumble To 2-Year Low In May, NAR Warns ‘Worse To Come’

The problem with lower P/E ratios is that while the P has moved, the E is on thin ice — and the cracks are starting to show…

EURUSD.

EURUSD 1hr.

EURUSD 4hr.

EURUSD daily.

EURUSD is still holding below the wave (iv) high at 1.0601 today.
While the price came close to that top today,
I can still view this lower high as wave ‘iv’ of (v).

This new count calls for wave (v) to fall again this week in a five wave pattern to break 1.0340 again.
I want wave ‘iii’ of (v) to make progress to the downside tomorrow to confirm this count.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘iii’ of (v) to break the wave ‘i’ low at 1.0444.
A break of that low should lead to a quick drop into 1.0340 again.

The high at 1.0600 must hold.

GBPUSD

GBPUSD 1hr.

GBPUSD 4hr.

GBPUSD daily.

Cable has traded very weakly the last two days,
and now the price has traced out a corrective rise into todays lower high at wave (ii).
This evening the price has given up much of that small gain.
So as it stands,
wave (ii) will be completely retraced with a decline in wave (iii).
I want to see wave (iii) break the previous wave (b) low at 1.2040 again.
If that happens,
this count will be confirmed.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘i’ of (iii) to fall again and break 1.2170 at a minimum.

USDJPY.

USDJPY 1hr.

USDJPY 4hr.

USDJPY daily.

Have a look at the weekly chart I have shown above.
This has ling been my thesis on USDJPY.
And we are surely witnessing that wave [C] rally that the pattern called for now.
But now I am rethinking the overall pattern in wave [C],
and it looks like we are much further on in that pattern than I previously thought.

Wave [C] is tracing out a five wave pattern as you would expect.
and the relentless rally that we have seen in the last few weeks is now viewed as wave (3) of [C].
If we look at the rally with this perspective,
then the action we have seen in the last few months makes much more sense.

If we are topping out now in wave (3) of [C],
then we should be witnessing a near top in wave ‘5’ of (3).

If we look at the 4hr count I can see an extended wave ‘3’ of (3),
and a correction in wave ‘4’ complete at the recent low.
And now a rally off that low which is tracing out five waves up.

The question is are we close to completing wave ‘5’ of (3) now.
If the hourly chart is correct,
then we are very close to that top also.

Tomorrow;
There is room for another rally into 138 to complete this wave [v] of ‘5’.
But I will be looking for a reversal pattern to form again once I see this trend channel fill out at the top of wave [v].

DOW JONES.

DOW 1hr.

DOW 4hr

DOW daily.

The Dow is making progress along that suggested wave (ii) correction path today.
The price may be pretty close to topping in wave ‘a’ of (ii) this evening.
And the rally that has formed this week is now looking like a five wave pattern higher.
At this point it is a case of just letting this pattern play out over the rest of this week,
and watch for a three wave correction to top out in wave (ii) around that 38% retracement level at 31100 again.

Tomorrow;
I will be looking for wave ‘b’ to begin tomorrow
and a higher low to form above the wave (i) low.
It is early days in this correction so lets just wait and see how tomorrows trade goes.
A drop to a higher low will really favor this pattern.

GOLD

GOLD 1hr.

GOLD 4hr.

GOLD daily.

Another disappointing day in the bag for this bullish pattern.
While this is still a corrective move lower in wave ‘2’ of ‘iii’,
the length of this correction is beginning to get out of proportion with the rest of the pattern now.
I am happy to stick with this bullish pattern unless the price breaks below 1815 again.
If that level breaks,
then I will be forced to switch to the bearish pattern for wave [v] of ‘5’.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘iii’ to continue higher and break above 1857 again to signal this pattern correct.

CRUDE OIL.

CRUDE OIL 1hr.

CRUDE OIL 4hr.

CRUDE OIL daily.

the action off that possible wave [iii] low is corrective so far.
I have labelled this wave [iv] of ‘1’ at the moment,
but I have no way of knowing if wave [iv] is complete yet
or if something bigger is going to build from here.
I will have to wait on that one.

I am willing to be patient here to see how wave ‘1’ develops because there is many options at this point in the pattern.
We could continue higher in a corrective pattern,
and then I will be dealing with a series of 1,2 waves off the top.

In all cases,
the top at wave [ii] must hold at 116.50.
A break of that level will rule out any bearish pattern.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave [iv] to hold at todays highs.
A break below 106.30 again will signal wave [v] of ‘1’ is underway.

S&P 500.

S&P 500 1hr

S&P 500 4hr

S&P 500 daily.

Wave ‘ii’ is tracking higher as suggested today.
But the pattern is not clear yet,
and there is the possibility that wave ‘iii’ can develop into a more complex pattern.
In that scenario we could see a sideways grind for at least the rest of this week.

I am still keeping an eye on that previous fourth wave high at 3840 as an initial target for wave ‘ii’.
And the upper target at the 50% retracement level at 3900 forms a target range for this correction.
After that,
we just have to be patient to see what happens.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘ii’ to continue in a corrective manner into that target range.
That may involve a drop to a higher low first as shown above.
The upper limit of this second wave correction should be the declining trend channel.
I do not want to see a break out above that upper channel line.

SILVER.

SILVER 1hr

SILVER 4hr.

SILVER daily.

Silver is struggling to get out of a second wave correction this week.
The pattern in wave (ii) seems to be tracing out a flat correction now.
And this evening I am watching a decline back into the 21.46 level in wave ‘c’ of (ii).
that should be enough to complete wave (ii) tomorrow,
and then wave (iii) of [c] is expected to rally back above 22.00 again to confirm this count.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘c’ to hit the wave ‘a’ low at 21.46 and then reverse higher into wave (iii) before the end of tomorrow session.
20.89 must hold from here.