Good evening to you folks, and the Lord’s blessings to you all tonight.

EURUSD.

EURUSD 1hr.

EURUSD 4hr.

EURUSD daily.

The Short term action today is less than satisfactory in terms of a bullish pattern,
so it is getting harder to remain with that bullish count.

And with that disappointment,
I have switched to the alternate count this evening.

The rally last week is a clear three wave pattern higher.
And that takes the wave (iv) of [v] label now.
WAve (v) of [v] must make a new low to break 1.0340 again,
this is the minimum target now for wave [v] to complete.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave (v) blue to continue lower this week and trace out a five wave pattern lower.
Once we do break to a new low in wave (v),
then I will begin to look for that long awaited bullish impulse wave to begin again.

GBPUSD

GBPUSD 1hr.

GBPUSD 4hr.

GBPUSD daily.

A similar fate is in line for cable this week, as I am putting away my bullish leanings for another few days.

Wave ‘5’ down should fall in five waves now to break to a new low below 1.1936 again.
This is the wave [iii] low, and the minimum target for this pattern.
the wave [iv] high at 1.2406 is the invalidation level for this hourly count.
So wave (ii) must complete below that level and then return lower tomorrow to begin wave (iii) of [i].

Tomorrow;
Wave (ii) looks pretty much done here,
and wave (iii) should fall back below 1.20 again to confirm this count pretty soon.

Watch for wave ‘i’ of (iii) to turn lower again tomorrow and begin a larger impulsive decline.

USDJPY.

USDJPY 1hr.

USDJPY 4hr.

USDJPY daily.

USDJPY is in an equally precarious position this evening.
The price is holding below the previous high,
and the price seems set on making another new high this week.
If the top holds at 135.58 for another few sessions,
then this rally will prove to be a failure and that will increase the odds of a new decline.

Last weeks decline has at least achieved a momentum divergence on the 4hr chart,
so there is still a reasonable chance that we will see a roll over into a third wave down this week as suggested.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave [ii] to hold below that top at 135.58.
I can only wait and see if the pair will follow through into wave [iii].
But I do need to see a lower degree five wave decline to signal wave (i) of [iii] is underway.

DOW JONES.

DOW 1hr.

DOW 4hr

DOW daily.

The action in the DOW was very weak today
and can only be described as a three wave pattern higher so far.
It seems like there is very little appetite to catch the falling knife yet at least!

I am looking for a correction higher in wave (ii) this week,
and the 38% retracement level at 31000 is still attractive.
that level also marks the area of the previous fourth wave.
And this lines up nicely with the main count now.

I have labelled todays small rise as wave ‘a’ of (ii).
We should see a higher low form in wave ‘b’ by midweek.
And then wave ‘c’ is expected to finish the week with a reasonable rally as shown.

Tomorrow;
This pattern is very speculative at the moment as there is very little to go on yet to prove wave (ii) has begun.
If Fridays low at wave (i) holds again tomorrow,
then I will be reasonably confident that wave (ii) is in play here.

Another sharp decline will still be viewed in the context of wave (i) down.

Watch for wave (i) to hold and wave ‘b’ to build a higher low above 29800.

GOLD

GOLD 1hr.

GOLD 4hr.

GOLD daily.

I am not filled with confidence by the action in gold today either.
There is a little too much overlapping happening in the pattern to consider the decline today as wave ‘iv’ of (i) now.
I have not ruled out the bullish wave count yet,
but I am now looking for an extension higher in wave ‘iii’ of (i) beginning tomorrow to put the bullish count back on track.

If the price does rally sharply back above the 1860 level again over the coming few sessions,
then I will happier with my bullish outlook again.
For the moment,
I cannot rule out the alternate count yet.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘3’ of ‘iii’ to push higher and to break 1860 to give this bullish count a boost.
The wave ‘ii’ low at 1815 must hold for this wave count to remain valid.

CRUDE OIL.

CRUDE OIL 1hr.

CRUDE OIL 4hr.

CRUDE OIL daily.

I am looking at a possible wave [iv] correction now as the price action gets very tight and choppy today.
There is a possible triangle forming in wave [iv] as the range of the correction does seem to be narrowing.
But it is too early to tell what pattern will form here to be honest.
I will just have to wait and see how this action pans out tomorrow.
This pattern will require another sharp decline by the end of the week to complete five waves down.
So there is a long way to go before we can confirm a top in crude at wave (2) yet.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave [iv] to hold below the wave [i] low at 110.54.
This is the first hurdle to get over as this pattern develops.

S&P 500.

S&P 500 1hr

S&P 500 4hr

S&P 500 daily.

The S&P is trying to form at least a short term low above 3636 today.
It is hard to judge now to be honest.
As it is very easy to view todays small move higher as a correction within wave ‘5’ of ‘i’.
I will need to see a clear higher low form tomorrow to signal that wave ‘ii’ is in play here.

The correction in wave ‘ii’ should be weak overall,
if the trend has now shifted to the downside into a third of a third wave as shown.

Wave (iii) down is expected to make good progress lower by the end of this month,
and a weak retracement in wave ‘ii’ is required to achieve that.
So we will just have to wait and see how this plays out tomorrow to be able to make a more solid prediction on the wave ‘ii’ pattern.

Tomorrow;
Watch for 3636 to hold.
I am looking at the area between 3840 and 3920 to complete wave ‘ii’ before the end of this week.

SILVER.

SILVER 1hr

SILVER 4hr.

SILVER daily.

Silver is proving difficult to track also today as the action off Fridays high can be viewed in two ways.
It really depends on the eye of the beholder!

I am looking for a rally in wave [c] to complete near 22.80 this week,
so I am counting todays low as a possible wave (ii) of [c].

I think the price must turn higher tomorrow in order to confirm this wave [c] count now
Any more declines will favor the idea that wave ‘5’ down is already underway here.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave (ii) to hold at 21.46.
A break above 21.95 again will signal wave (iii) is underway.