Daily Elliott Wave Analysis – 06-17-19 – Foiled again!

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Hi there everyone.

It was a big day so lets get into it.

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EURUSD

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Wave '5' of 'i' is now underway with another sharp drop today.
The price has stabilized over the last few hours,
This is viewed as a small fourth wave within wave '5'.
So we should see another drop tomorrow to complete wave '5' and wave 'i'.
The correction in wave 'ii' is likely to start on Thursday.
And once that correction is complete,
wave 'iii' of (iii) should accelerate lower.

Tomorrow;
Watch for a final drop in wave '5' to complete the larger wave 'i'.

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GBPUSD

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I am wondering if todays low in cable was just wave '3' of 'v' completing.
This would suggest that wave '4' is now correcting higher,
and wave '5' of 'v' sill drop again with a break of the lower support at 1.2477 on the cards.
I would be even happier if the larger degree wave (iii)
fell into the lower trend channel line again before making it's final low.

Tomorrow;
watch for a three wave correction in wave '4' to complete below 1.2651 at wave '1'.

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USDJPY

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USDJPY will not conform to my attempts to frame its actions!
This market is determined not to give up its secrets!

The price fell overnight to a higher low above support.
And then rallied today to recover all of the losses.
The overnight low seems to fit a trend channel correction in three waves.
So I have labelled this wave (ii) green.
Wave (i) is now labelled as a leading diagonal at the 108.80 high.
This setup still calls for a rally in a third wave from here.
And todays rally may be the initial move higher to begin wave (iii).

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave (iii) to push above 108.80 and and confirm the bullish count.

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DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS

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Im sure many of you as as frustrated with me as I am with myself tonight!
The stock market simply will not play ball and begin the long awaited bear-market.
Todays rally has ruled out the latest bearish setup I was working with.
So its back to the drawing board again for me!

Every long and medium term market indicator that I track
is pointing to a massive decline dead ahead for stocks.
And so with every reasonable decline over the last year,
I have been looking for the bearish pattern to match the bearish undercurrents.
So far I have been foiled.

I have reverted to an earlier wave count this evening which shows wave '5' blue still ongoing.
So It looks like a new all time high is the fate for the DOW after all.
The minimum target is for a break of the October 2018 high at 26951.
so the current wave '5' of (5) of [5] should do that.
If the price hits the upper trend channel line at about 27300 ro so,
and then reverts lower again in another impulsive decline.
Then I will work with that decline as the beginning of the bear-market again.
And so the process goes.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave [v] of '5' to continue higher to complete another five wave structure over the coming week or so.
I will take it day by day now.

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GOLD

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The rise in wave 'b' of (ii) failed below 1358 at the high of the session.
Wave 'c' down is likely to begin now,
and at a minimum it should break the wave 'a' low at 1332 over the coming sessions.
This will create a three wave correction off the wave (i) high,
and setup for a larger rally in wave (iii) blue over the coming weeks.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave 'c' to fall into the initial target at 1332.
Support at 1319 forms the lower end of the target range for wave (ii).

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U.S CRUDE OIL

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Crude spiked higher today which ruled out the triangle idea for wave [iv].
We are now back to the previous combination pattern that we were working with last week for wave [iv].
So even though the price did spike nicely today,
I don't think the larger decline in wave '1' blue is done yet.
We need one more drop into about 47.00,
to complete five waves down off the recent high.
First lets get this correction in wave 'iv' out of the way.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave (c) to break 54.93 at a minimum to complete the correction.
And then we can look for a further decline in wave [v].

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US 10 yr Treasuries.

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Bonds also rallied today!
But the rally did not last as we are now selling again into the close.
The rise off the wave (a) low is still viewed as a three wave structure.
This suggests a correction higher in wave (b).
And wave (c) of [iv] should now begin
and drop into 126.47 again to complete an expanded flat correction.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave (c) to continue lower in five waves.
A drop below 127.00 again should confirm wave (c) is underway.

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SILVER

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I have shown a slightly different way of interpreting the rally this evening.
The market has moved sideways over the last week in a contracting range.
This may be a triangle forming in wave '4' of 'i'.
If so,
then wave 'i' should create another high above 15.14 to complete five waves up.
And then wave 'ii' will correct off that high in three waves.
That will form a bullish Elliott wave signal and set us up for a rally in wave 'iii'.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave '4' to complete with a drop into the lower trend-line at 14.85.
Wave '5' should begin off that low.

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S&P 500.

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I have also reverted to an older wave count for the S&P,
after todays rally blew the bearish count out of the water.
The bulls are determined to pay more for stock,
so be it, for the moment!

I have shown the recent decline as wave '4' blue,
with wave '5' now well underway in the rally we have just experienced.
We can view the recent sideways action as a triangle correction.
If this is correct,
then the triangle must be a fourth wave correction,
as triangle corrections never appear as a complete second wave.

So if wave [iv] is now done,
then wave [v] of '5' is now underway, and was kicked off by today's rally in wave (i) of [v].

Tomorrow;
watch for wave [v] to continue higher with a few punctuated corrections along the way.
Wave [iv] must now hold at 2882.

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