Good evening to you folks, and the Lord’s blessings to you all tonight.

EURUSD.

EURUSD 1hr.

EURUSD 4hr.

EURUSD daily.

Well I have to admit that my bullish outlook on EURUSD took another hammering today.
There is still a reasonable chance that a low is forming in wave [ii] green.
Wave (c) of [ii] is holding near the 78.6% retracement level this evening.
So the price is getting very close to that invalidation level at 1.0349 now.
As long as that level holds,
then this bullish count is valid.
A break of that level will simply mean that a new low in wave (B) will be found later.
I will deal with that bridge when we cross it!

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave (B) to hold at 1.0339.
A rally back above 1.07 again will signal wave (i) of [iii] is underway.

GBPUSD

GBPUSD 1hr.

GBPUSD 4hr.

GBPUSD daily.

Cable has taken a beating today also and the price has now broken to a new low below 1.2155 again.
This new low has altered the pattern for wave ‘4’.
Wave ‘4’ requires a more substantial pattern to play out,
so I do not think that the recent rally is enough to satisfy that.

I am now counting an expanded flat correction in wave [b].
And I am looking for a rally back above 1.2666 in wave [c] over the coming week.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave [b] to find that final low nearby.
Wave [c] of ‘4’ will begin with a sharp rally back above 1.2400 again.

USDJPY.

USDJPY 1hr.

USDJPY 4hr.

USDJPY daily.

The Rally in USDJPY has at least cooled off today and this opens up the possibility that wave ‘v’ of (v) has topped out.
That has not been confirmed yet at all.
the decline off the top is not large enough to confirm a top yet.
But a completed pattern and a decline off the high is at least a first sign to point to that possibility again.

Tomorrow;
Watch for the decline to continue and a five wave pattern to develop off the top this week.

DOW JONES.

DOW 1hr.

DOW 4hr

DOW daily.

The Market has given us enough to consider a third of a third wave down now underway.
The price broke the recent low today and we are now back at a new 12mt low again.
The FEB 2020 high is just below us now,
and that level will at least form a psychological pivot point.
We will see if it larks the acceleration level into that third wave down also.

If you take a look at the daily chart,
you can see that the market has failed miserably at the 50dma.
And the price has filled the trend channel off the top again.

The 4hr chart shows the market falling in wave (i) of [iii] of ‘3’.
We could see a recovery in wave (ii) of [iii] this week.
The initial target for wave [iii] of ‘3’ lies at 28600.
This is where wave [i] and [iii] reach equality.

The hourly chart shows an incomplete wave (i) down.
Todays sharp decline is labelled wave ‘iii’ of (i),
with wave ‘iv’ and ‘v’ left to complete that initial step lower into wave [iii].
IF this count is correct,
then wave (i) will complete and wave (ii) will start before the end of this week.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘iv’ of (i) to begin.
wave ‘iv’ should consolidate and correct higher in a three wave pattern.

I would like to see wave ‘iv’ complete below 32000 at the very upper end.

GOLD

GOLD 1hr.

GOLD 4hr.

GOLD daily.

Gold took a hammering also today and that has shaken my outlook for the short term.
The bullish count is not invalidated yet!
But I am now compelled to look at the alternate count closely lust incase that count takes over.

I want to start by looking at the 4hr chart.
the concern in the alternate count is that we are tracing out five waves down in wave ‘C’ of (4).
And the recent rally is only wave [iv] of ‘C’ in this count.
If that is correct,
then todays sharp decline is only beginning wave [v] of ‘C’.
And this count will take us all the way down towards 1650 again in wave [v] of ‘C’ of (4).

Tomorrow;
The hourly chart shows another interpretation of the bullish count off the low.
the recent low at 1786 must hold.
And wave (i) of [iii] must rally again and break 1880 quickly in order to save this bullish count.

CRUDE OIL.

CRUDE OIL 1hr.

CRUDE OIL 4hr.

CRUDE OIL daily.

Todays action is not very clear cut as a corrective rally in a second wave.
And therefore there is doubt over the final wave [v] of ‘C’ as shown.

The idea that a top is in for wave [v] is valid as long as the top holds.
But I want to introduce an alternate for wave [v] this evening.
The low today can be viewed as an expanded flat wave (b).
And wave (c) is left to push to a new high above 121.50 again.

Tomorrow;
If we see a sharp drop again tomorrow,
then the bearish count is in play again.
We should know tomorrow which count is correct for wave [v] here.

S&P 500.

S&P 500 1hr

S&P 500 4hr

S&P 500 daily.

A new low for the S&P today and with that the hope rally has now been completely retraced.
I have labelled this new low as wave ‘3’ of ‘i’ of (iii) of [iii].
So if I am correct here,
then we should complete the first five wave pattern into wave (iii) over the next few sessions.
And then a correction in wave ‘ii’ is expected before the end of the week.
The real carnage is on hold for wave ‘iii’ of (iii) of [iii] next week.

If wave ‘3’ of ‘i’ is now complete,
then a small correction higher in wave ‘4’ will begin tomorrow.
I would like to see wave ‘4’ hold below 3950 and trace out a clear corrective three wave pattern higher.

Tomorrow;
There is a tradition of a Tuesday rally over the last few months,
so I will look for wave ‘3’ to complete and wave ‘4’ to begin tomorrow.
five waves down in wave ‘i’ should be complete by Thursday if all goes to plan.

SILVER.

SILVER 1hr

SILVER 4hr.

SILVER daily.

I am still going with the corrective rally in wave ‘4’ tonight even though we have a new low in wave [b] today.
the main reason for sticking with the wave [b] idea here,
is that the decline off the recent high at wave [a] is still quite corrective looking so far.
Wave [b] can be viewed as an expanded flat correction.
With wave (c) making a new low today.
If this count is correct,
then wave [c] will begin a rally very soon to trace out five waves up and break above 22.50 again.

Tomorrow;
Watch for the low at 20.44 to hold again.
Wave [b] should be complete now.
So wave (i) of [c] must begin tomorrow with a push above 21.42 again to signal that wave [c] is underway.