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Hello and good evening folks.
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EURUSD
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EURUSD has dropped off Wednesdays high labelled wave '2' of 'i' today.
This decline suggests that wave '3' is now underway.
So far the drop is less than impressive as a third wave down.
Especially since I do expect a larger decline phase to begin in wave (iii) of [iii].
The form of the decline is in three waves so far,
so we must see a further decline tomorrow and possibly an acceleration lower to confirm that wave 'i' down has begun.
Tomorrow;
Watch for 1.1347 to hold again,
Wave '3' of 'i' should continue lower and break 1.1214 at a minimum.
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GBPUSD
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Still no rush to the downside in cable to confirm wave 'v' yet either.
The market is quietly drifting lower off the wave 'iv' high,
but I would like to see a spike lower to break 1.2556 tomorrow which would strengthen the short term count.
The target for wave (iii) remains at 1.2477,
and when that level is reached in wave 'v' we can start to look for a sideways correction at a higher degree in wave (iv).
Tomorrow;
1.2764 should hold,
watch for wave '3' of 'v' to break 1.2556.
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USDJPY
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USDJPY is not playing ball at all yet!
The rise off the recent low at 107.81 is labelled as a series of 1,2 waves.
but the rally needs to push higher now,
and create the five wave structure that I am looking for
in order to confirm the price has turned up in wave '3'.
If the price falls below 107.87 again that will trigger the alternate count.
Tomorrow;
Watch for 108.16 to hold and wave 'iii' up to begin with a break of 108.79.
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DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS
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The DOW is stuck around 26000 today in a possible wave 'ii' pink.
The high at 26248 must hold for the current short term count to remain valid.
And wave 'iii' down should now begin with a sustained push below 26000 again.
Wave (i) itself is expected to reach the previous wave '1' blue area at 25222 again before completing.
If we see another rally that breaks initial resistance at wave '2'.
Then I will have to rethink the larger wave count all together.
I still believe that the current highs are terminal to the bull market.
But we just have not seen the correct price action to confirm that yet.
I wait patiently for wave [i] of '3' to begin.
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave '2' to hold at 26248 and wave 'iii' to drop sharply below 25700 at a minimum.
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GOLD
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Gold is on the rise again today in a possible wave 'v' of (i).
This supports the idea that one more high should occur in wave (i)
before correcting in wave (ii) again.
the minimum target for wave (i) to complete lies at 1348,
where the price will break out above the recent highs in wave 'iii'.
Tomorrow;
watch for wave 'v' to complete with a break of resistance.
If the price breaks 1330 again, that will signal that wave (ii) is already in force.
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U.S CRUDE OIL
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Crude did spike higher off the wave (b) low today,
reaching a high at 53.60 before selling into the close this evening.
This action signals that wave (c) is now underway,
with the target set at 55.37 where the price will meet the upper trend line again.
I note that the rally today did complete in five waves off the low at wave (b).
This raises the possibility that wave [iv[ is a running flat correction.
In this case,
crude will drop again tomorrow and break 50.64 to begin wave [v] down.
The early action tomorrow should help sort out which interpretation is correct.
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave (c) to continue higher towards the upper trendline.
The low at 50.64 should hold.
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US 10 yr Treasuries.
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The 10YR continued its march higher in wave (b) of [iv].
I still expect wave (c) to create another low below that of wave (a) at 126.47,
this will complete a clear three wave pattern in wave [iv].
And wave [v] will then be set to rally again towards the 128.00 target.
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave (c) to begin off the high this evening and fall to about 126.20 at the lower trend channel line.
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SILVER
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Silver is moving higher with a little more intent today.
Wave '1' of 'iii' has not traced out five waves yet,
so this rally must continue tomorrow and break above initial resistance at 14.63 before completing.
This action is still viewed as the beginning of wave 'iii' up.
But we should see a bullish higher low above 14.63 in wave '2' before a serious rally occurs in wave 'iii'.
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave 'ii' to hold at 14.63.
wave '1' of 'iii' should continue higher.
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S&P 500.
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Even though the stock market is at an all time valuation extreme,
and speculation is now the norm rather than the exception in the market.
Even though sentiment is stretched into the stratosphere,
and zero-value wealth destroying companies get cash simply thrown at them.
Even though the economy is teetering on the edge of recession,
and the screaming signs of a massive financial bubble are everywhere.
The S&P is sitting pretty near to it's all time highs, and financial tv tells us its ok to buy buy buy.
We have not yet seen the impulsive downside action which I am expecting off the wave '2' high.
Then again,
the job of a second wave is to fool as many people as possible into thinking there is no danger here.
And the recent rally has achieved that in spades alright!
I remain on the lookout for a serious decline phase to begin in wave '3' soon.
If that is the case,
then wave 'iii' down will begin with a spike lower tomorrow.
And then wave (i) will carry the price back below 2800 in short order.
Tomorrow;
Watch for 2910 to hold again.
Wave 'iii' down must begin now.
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