Good evening to one and all, the Lord’s Blessings to you tonight.

Managed money is extremely long again, with NAAIM coming in at 90.07.

The highest reading in over a year!

You might say long positioning is becoming a bit stretched.

https://twitter.com/bullwavesreal

EURUSD.

EURUSD 1hr.

EURUSD 4hr.

EURUSD daily.

EURUSD is one pattern that remained intact today.
Wave ‘iv’ of (c) has now complete three waves up.
The minimum target for wave ‘c’ was hit when price broke the previous wave ‘a’ high.
The upper trend channel line will be hit at 108.25.
Lets see if that level is reached tomorrow and then the turn lower can begin into wave ‘v’.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘c’ of ‘iv’ to top out at 1.0825 and then turn lower again into wave ‘v’ of (c).

GBPUSD

GBPUSD 1hr.

GBPUSD 4hr.

GBPUSD daily.

Another rapid move in cable today has invalidated last night count.
The overall pattern in wave (b) is still solid.
and the new high today has just pipped the 62% retracement level of wave (a) again.
Wave ‘c’ of (b) is shown as an expanding wedge tonight.
That is the best fit wave pattern for wave ‘c’ at the moment.
We will see f that holds tomorrow.

If wave ‘c’ of (b) is complete now,
then wave (c) must turn lower again tomorrow.

Tomorrow;
Watch for todays rally to be reversed and wave ‘i’ of (c) should fall back into the 1.2300 handle again to confirm wave (c) has begun.

USDJPY.

USDJPY 1hr.

USDJPY 4hr.

USDJPY daily.

A similar reversal of yesterdays move in USDJPY has also invalidated last nights count.
The decline in wave ‘ii’ of (v) is still a real possibility here.
Three waves down to form a higher low above the wave (iv) low at 138.42.
If that wave (iv) level holds tomorrow,
then we can expect wave (v) to continue higher next week.
This wave pattern fits an impulse wave higher at the moment.
but I will admit,
the pattern is under pressure tonight.

tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘iii’ of (v) to turn higher to break 140.95 again and confirm the larger pattern,
Wave (iv) must hold at 138.42.

DOW JONES.

DOW 1hr.

DOW 4hr

DOW daily.

The Dow has levitated back to the highs of the week again today.
But the only change here is the internal pattern for wave ‘c’ of ‘ii’.
I was showing a possible three wave rally in wave ‘c’.
But now the internal pattern for wave ‘c’ has developed in five waves completing a 3,3,5 flat correction.
Wave ‘c’ must complete below 34260 at the previous highs.
And then wave ‘1’ of ‘iii’ simply must turn lower either tomorrow or early next week.

Tomorrow;
I know this pattern is cutting it close also as wave ‘ii’ is pushing the boundaries of the correction.
But I am going to go with my gut on this one.
The market is hanging on for dear life at this third lower high below wave ‘2’ blue formed last December.
It has taken a long time to go nowhere here,
and all the pressure is on the negative side now.

GOLD

GOLD 1hr.

GOLD 4hr.

GOLD daily.

The second wave correction in gold is taking time to fill out.
The upper line of this corrective channel has been hit again today,
but the price is still holding a lower high in wave ‘ii’ pink.

And I am looking for wave ‘iii’ of (c) to begin this week.
And if we see a break of the wave ‘i’ low at 1931 again,
that will confirm wave ‘iii’ has begun.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘ii’ to hold below 1983.
wave ‘iii’ must begin tomorrow with a break of support at 1931.
And then wave ‘iii’ should continue lower in five waves as shown over the next week.

CRUDE OIL.

CRUDE OIL 1hr.

CRUDE OIL 4hr.

CRUDE OIL daily.

That was a pretty sharp move lower this afternoon and I am approaching this move with caution here.
The main count suggests that wave (c) of [ii] finished with a failed fifth wave below the wave ‘iii’ high.
This is not a common pattern,
but it is possible in terminal moves, so I will keep the main count as the bearish option here.
Wave [ii] is now complete at todays highs.
And wave (i) of [iii] is underway with that sharp move down.

the alternate count is an altogether different take on this weeks action.
I am showing a three wave decline into todays lows,
and that completes wave ‘i’ and ‘ii’ of wave (c).
Wave ‘iii’ of (c) will be confirmed with a break above 73.35 again.
And in this scenario.
Wave (c) of [ii] can break that 80.00 level again after a five wave rally in wave (c) of [ii].

Tomorrow;
Back to the main count.
Watch for wave ‘ii’ to complete below 73.34.
Wave ‘iii’ of (i) will be confirmed with a break of 69.16 at the wave ‘i’ low.

S&P 500.

S&P 500 1hr

S&P 500 4hr

S&P 500 daily.

The S&P has held at the highs of this pattern for the whole week now.
And even with the market holding up like there,
there is very little actually revealed about the pattern,
apart from the fact that wave ‘v’ is still in force here.

There is a real chance that wave ‘5’ of ‘v’ is now completing a larger five wave pattern itself off that wave ‘4’ low.
I can see a definite fourth and fifth wave in play after todays action.
This wave must hold below 4324 also as with the previous count.
And I continue to hold onto the idea that wave [ii] can complete below that level at 4324 and turn down sharply into wave ‘i’ next week.
Again,
if the resistance holds at 4324,
and we see a failure below that level again,
I think that will favor this bearish count immensely.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave (c) of [ii] to hold below the resistance high at 4324.
If it holds tomorrow then this count is go for next week.

SILVER.

SILVER 1hr

SILVER 4hr.

SILVER daily.

Silver had another wild rally today to invalidate last nights count again.
The pattern in wave [b] is turning out to be a really tricky one to figure out.
I can suggest another expanding wedge pattern for wave (c) again tonight.
This does have some explanatory power,
but this can only be confirmed with a turn lower into wave (i) of [c].

Even with the rally today,
the highs of wave [b] have not hit the 50% retracement level of wave [a] yet.
This is a typical level for a wave [b] retracement to top out,
so lets see if a sign of a top will emerge tomorrow again.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave (i) of [c] to begin with a drop back into the 23.00 handle again.