Good evening folks, and may the Lord of hosts Bless you tonight.

EURUSD.

EURUSD 1hr.

EURUSD 4hr.

EURUSD daily.

EURUSD has created another three waves up to a lower high this evening.
The price is holding below 1.22 this evening in a possible wave ‘ii’ pink.
That completes another smaller degree impulse wave to the downside.
And now the next move should be wave ‘iii’ down.
Wave ‘iii’ should accelerate lower and fall into the previous wave [b] low at 1.1985.
If that happens it will rule out a whole lot of alternate counts in the short term.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘ii’ to complete now and wave ‘iii’ will be confirmed with a break of 1.2100 again.
1.2255 must hold.

GBPUSD

GBPUSD 1hr.

GBPUSD 4hr.

GBPUSD daily.

Early this morning we got another decline following on from Fridays trade.
this initial decline has been retraced again this evening though.
Todays action has really left the count in limbo for the moment.
I suspect we will see a resolution soon to the last three weeks of correction action.
I am leaning in favor of the downside at the moment as it seems we have five waves up complete in wave ‘C’ at the previous high.

The action off that high has been less that satisfactory so far.
But it is possible that we have a running flat wave ‘ii’ completing at this evenings highs.
And this should be resolved with a decline into wave ‘iii’ of (iii) tomorrow;
In this case the wave (ii) high at 1.4203 must hold.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘iii’ down to begin a with a break of 1.4082 again.
The bearish should term count will be ruled out with a break of 1.4250.

USDJPY.

USDJPY 1hr.

USDJPY 4hr.

USDJPY daily.

As the ‘USD death’ narrative continued to make its rounds over the weekend,
someone forgot to tell USDJPY the sad news.
I am looking at a pretty text-book expanded flat wave (ii) now complete in wave (ii).
Wave ‘c’ of (ii) has dropped into the rising trend line again over the last few days.
And now the test of this bullish count comes.
Wave (iii) needs to begin this week.

Wave (ii) must hold above 108.55,
and so long as that happens this bullish setup is the most likely outcome.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘c’ of (ii) to find support at that trend line.
If we see a rally back above 110.00 this week I think we are on for a larger move in wave ‘iii’ of (iii).

DOW JONES.

DOW 1hr.

DOW 4hr

DOW daily.

So the market tested the previous high today and sold off immediately.
I cant take this as confirmation of the larger concept here,
but it is interesting for sure that we have another failure below the all time high.
and a double top failure at that.

Its been a long drawn out process to get to this point in wave [ii].
So a top here would be welcome now!
The pattern is set,
will we see a downside follow-through now to begin wave [iii].
That is the question this week.

The bearish pattern itself does not have anymore room to fill out to the upside here.
So wave (i) of [iii] must come in this week otherwise I will be forced to reconsider this count.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘i’ of (i) to fall into the previous fourth wave low at 34320.
A break of that level will raise the probability of success of this count substantially.

In general,
we need a substantial decline to begin this week.

GOLD

GOLD 1hr.

GOLD 4hr.

GOLD daily.

The rise off the wave (i) low is now in five waves and with development I am looking at a larger wave (ii) pattern in play.
The rally into todays high is viewed as wave ‘a’ of (ii).
the price must fall tomorrow into wave ‘b’ of (ii) is this count is to remain valid.

On the 4hr chart I have elaborated on the alternate count for wave [c] of ‘B’.
Todays action has given a boost to this interpretation.

You can see a five wave rally in wave [c] with last weeks low marking wave (iv) of [c].
The final push higher in wave (v) of [c] should push above the wave [a] high at 1958 to complete an expanded flat correction.
Wave [c] will reach 162% of wave [a] at 1987.
This count will be triggered if we see a break above 1916.

Tomorrow;
watch for wave ‘b’ to fall again and complete above 1855.

CRUDE OIL.

CRUDE OIL 1hr.

CRUDE OIL 4hr.

CRUDE OIL daily.

I must say that despite last weeks new high and new count,
the action over the last week is less than convincing as a third of a third wave higher.
I will have to give this count time to be proven wrong here,
but at the moment it is looking unlikely that the price is about to explode higher into a third wave.

If we see an impulsive move lower take hold this week that will suggest another pattern is likely for wave (5).
and possibly that wave (5) is completing now as an expanding wedge pattern as you can see on the daily chart.

Tomorrow;
Watch for the price to hold above 67.42 at the wave (i) high.
A break of that level will cast serious doubt over this short term count.

S&P 500.

S&P 500 1hr

S&P 500 4hr

S&P 500 daily.

The S&P is on the verge of a new all time high for the last few sessions.
And so far that has not happened.
The price is making another attempt this evening at this top of wave (ii).
That leaves the wave count in the S&P on the verge of invalidation tomorrow.
A new all time high will require a complete rethink of the rally in wave [v] on the 4hr chart.
So I am going to just wait and see here.

Tomorrow;
A drop below 4166 again will save the bearish option this week.

SILVER.

SILVER 1hr

SILVER 4hr.

SILVER daily.

It is decision time in Silver also this week.
The pattern has developed reasonably well off the top at wave ‘B’ recently.
And now we have the possibility of a series of smaller 1,2 patterns lower over the last week.
This must lead to a substantial drop in wave (iii) this week.
And the high at 28.20 at wave (ii) is key in this interpretation.
If that level holds and we see a drop below 27.00 again,
then we have a good chance that wave wave ‘C’ is finally underway here.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘ii’ to hold below 28.20 and then fall in an impulsive form to break wave ‘i’ at 27.00 again this week.