Good evening to you folks, and the Lord’s blessings to you all tonight.

Another week has started and I am hopeful that this week will end a bear market rally in a second wave and begin a new downtrend.

I am not at all surprised that people have bought the ‘buy the dip’ narrative so far, If this really is the end of a 14yr rally off the previous 2009 bust, then it is not a shock that people are finding it impossible to think of any other possibility in life than rising stock prices.

I think that never say die attitude will be punished by the first major wave down in stocks, and no one is prepared for that.

EURUSD.

EURUSD 1hr.

EURUSD 4hr.

EURUSD daily.

EURUSd has fallen in a clear three wave pattern off that wave ‘i’ high today.
And now we have a higher low in wave ‘ii’ forming this evening.
I think this is a good signal that wave ‘iii’ of (v) will rally tomorrow
and then wave (v) will complete a five wave pattern in wave [i] later this week.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave (iv) to hold at 1.0627.
Wave ‘iii’ of (v) should break to a new high above 1.0766 tomorrow.
the target for wave (v) remains at 1.0840.

GBPUSD

GBPUSD 1hr.

GBPUSD 4hr.

GBPUSD daily.

Cable is pretty flat after todays trade but I can see a small higher low forming again above the wave (ii) low.
this action suggests wave (iii) is now underway,
with todays action completing waves ‘i’ and ‘ii’ of (iii).
If this count is correct,
then wave ‘iii’ of (iii) of [c] should continue higher tomorrow.
And the wave [b] low at 1.2458 should hold.
If that level breaks then I will have to rethink the pattern i9n wave [b].

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave [b] to hold.
Wave ‘iii’ of (iii) should break 1.2666 at a minimum.

USDJPY.

USDJPY 1hr.

USDJPY 4hr.

USDJPY daily.

It is funny the strength that the USD is showing, when inflation is the theme of the year so far!
It is almost like people are running into the USD in times of uncertainty!

USDJPY has triggered the alternate count today with a new high in wave ‘5’ of (1).
The rally last week has surprised me to be honest,
as I was favoring the correction in wave (2) to take over,
but here we are still topping out a large five wave pattern.

Wave [v] has traced out a possible five wave pattern at todays highs.
And the minimum target level for this alternate scenario has been met.
So this week I will be looking for another reversal pattern to build off a final high in wave ‘5’[.
I will just have to wait and see if this rally tops out and reverses into a new downtrend.

Tomorrow;
Lets see if wave (v) of [v] can reach a completed pattern and show signs of topping.
Wave (iv) lies at 129.50,
a break of that level is what I will look for first.

DOW JONES.

DOW 1hr.

DOW 4hr

DOW daily.

I am uncertain how to label today action.
The failed fifth wave at wave [ii] is appealing to me,
but I can also see a corrective three wave decline today
which can be viewed in terms of a extending wave (c) of [ii].
In that case wave ‘v’ of (c) will break to a new high and top out later this week.

There is another bearish alternate count which views the recent top at 33455 as a leading diagonal to begin wave (i) of [iii] down.
If the price falls again to break 32500 again,
that count will be favored.

While I am pretty much set on a renewed decline starting into wave [iii] down this week,
there is no major evidence of that yet,
so it is a wait and see moment here to allow the market to decide what pattern fits the best.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave (i) of [iii] to be confirmed with a break of 32500 again.
The recent high must hold for either bearish count to remain valid.

GOLD

GOLD 1hr.

GOLD 4hr.

GOLD daily.

Gold is holding that higher low above 1828 again today by the extra step lower is a little concerning to me.
I still favor the idea that this is a second wave correction.
And so far the rising trend line is holding also.
If the price turns higher again to towards 1870,
that will be enough to consider wave ‘iii’ of (iii) underway.
But that low at 1828 must hold.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘iii’ to turn higher and continue the major bullish reversal pattern into wave (iii).
If 1828 does hold,
that will suggest wave (ii) is tracing out a larger expanded flat correction off the wave (i) high.

CRUDE OIL.

CRUDE OIL 1hr.

CRUDE OIL 4hr.

CRUDE OIL daily.

There is nothing to suggest in todays action that wave ‘C’ of (2) is complete yet.
The ending diagonal idea is still a solid interpretation for the action over the last month,
but I will need to see a large impulsive decline off the top
and a break below 110.00 again to signal that wave (2) is done.

Tomorrow;
The price did cool off a little today,
but the decline is not at all large enough yet to signal an impulse wave down is underway.

Watch for five waves down to break 110.00 this week.
Only then can we get excited about a possible bearish reversal into wave (3) down.

S&P 500.

S&P 500 1hr

S&P 500 4hr

S&P 500 daily.

I may be clutching at straws here to find a bearish decline where there is only a correction lower.
But I am thinking about the larger pattern here.
Wave (ii) has done enough to suggest it is done at the failed fifth wave as shown.
Momentum has diverged lower to signal a larger turn is coming.
At this point the market has flushed out a lot of the shorts that were in play on the recent decline.
And the rally has done enough to switch off the fear that was present at the recent lows.

All in all,
I think this week is a good time to see a ‘trap door’ open into wave (iii) down.
And if that is going to happen,
then tomorrow should get us going.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘i’ down to break below 4070 again and complete five waves down around the 4000 level by midweek.

SILVER.

SILVER 1hr

SILVER 4hr.

SILVER daily.

Silver put invalidated last Fridays count early today with a sharp spike to a new high.
But then the price has given up all of the early gains.
The decline today is not as large,
but is no less impulsive than last Fridays decline.
So I think the same scenario exists here as did last week.
Wave ‘4’ should be topping now,
and wave ‘5’ down is getting underway.

Tomorrow;
We do not have enough action to the downside yet to call wave [i] underway,
but I remain open to a five wave decline early this week to confirm the large pattern.