Good evening folks,
I hope you had a good weekend and managed to clear your head as I tried to do!
God has granted me another week on planet earth, so…
on with the show!
EURUSD.
EURUSD 1hr.
EURUSD 4hr.
EURUSD daily.
I spoke about the alternate count for EURUSD in the video earlier today,
so check that out.
The key this week is for the price to hold below 1.1492,
and then head back lower again to begin wave ‘3’ down.
The price seems to be forming a lower high today,
but I am not entirely convinced of the impulsive nature of the decline just yet.
If the low is wave (i) down complete,
then we should see a corrective lower higher develop in wave (ii) tomorrow.
This action will lead to an acceleration lower in the middle of the week in wave (iii) of [i].
Tomorrow;
Wave (ii) should complete below 1.1382 tomorrow.
A decline below the previous fourth wave low at 1.1114 will favor the bearish count.
1.1492 must hold.
GBPUSD
GBPUSD 1hr.
GBPUSD 4hr.
GBPUSD daily.
Cable traced out a three wave decline off last weeks highs into the session low today.
I have labelled this decline as wave ‘a’ of (iv) now in place.
The rally off the low is wave ‘b’.
And wave ‘c’ is expected to fall back towards the 1.250 area by midweek to complete the larger wave (iv).
If wave (iv) is an expanded flat correction,
then wave ‘b’ can reach out to a new high before turning lower into wave ‘c’ again.
we will just have to wait and see what pattern wave (iv) takes.
Once wave (iv) is complete,
I am allowing for another rally in wave (v) of [c] to complete the whole rally off the march lows.
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘c’ of (iv) to fall back below 1.2627 again and complete wave (iv).
USDJPY.
USDJPY 1hr.
USDJPY 1hr.
USDJPY daily.
I also spoke about the alternate USDJPY count in the video today.
This involves a larger wave (E) than previously suggested.
I have shown this more clearly on the 4hr chart this evening.
The market sold off pretty hard today,
and so far this looks more impulsive than corrective to the downside.
The key level for the main bullish wave count lies at 108.08.
If we see a break of that level,
then the alternate count becomes more likely.
I have shown the alternate count circled in red.
This involves a possible impulsive decline in wave [i] down,
which should be followed by a three wave correction to a lower high in wave [ii].
In this case,
wave [iii] would slice down through support at 107.00 pretty easily.
Tomorrow;
in order for the main wave count to remain valid,
the price must hold above 108.08 overnight.
We are at a pivotal point in the wave structure now,
so tomorrows action will prove critial to the short term count.
DOW JONES.
DOW 1hr.
DOW 4hr
DOW daily.
The action today is to the upside alright,
but the inevitability of the rally is being called into question for sure.
The advance today is very timid indeed,
so I am asking the question,
are we finally hitting the wall of this momentum rally?
A look at the structure of wave [v] green would suggest that we are.
We have a clear five wave move into the highs,
and the price is now right up at the upper trend channel line again.
I know I have labored the bearish point of view for a long time now,
but the pattern is again suggesting a clear out come for this rally.
And if this short term pattern is correct,
then we will see a rapid reversal and acceleration lower to begin wave (C) this week.
Tomorrow;
This week I am looking for an equal and opposite reaction to the euphoric rally over the last few weeks.
If wave [c] of ‘C’ is now closing out,
then wave [i] down is at hand.
GOLD
GOLD 1hr.
GOLD 4hr.
GOLD daily.
There is an argument to be made today,
that we have seen a five wave advance up off last weeks lows todays highs.
If that is correct,
then wave [i]v may well be complete now,
and we can expect a rally in wave [v] of ‘5’ to begin this week.
I have a feeling that wave [v] of ‘5’ will carry the price very close to a new all time high again.
But first we need to see this bullish pattern in wave (i) and (ii) complete.
The previous wave ‘iv’ lies at 1721.
A break above that level will favor the idea that wave (i) is underway as shown.
The minimum target for wave (i) lies at the wave (b) high at 1745.
Tomorrow;
Watch for waves ‘i’ and ‘ii’ to complete a higher low above 1671.
Wave ‘iii’ of (i) should break 1721 by Wednesday evening.
CRUDE OIL.
CRUDE OIL 1hr.
CRUDE OIL 4hr.
CRUDE OIL daily.
Crude is down off Fridays highs today in what looks like the beginning of something much bigger
So far the drop off the highs at wave ‘C’ of (4) looks impulsive.
The decline has traced out three waves down into the lows this evening,
So I want to see a further drop tomorrow to complete five waves down in wave (i) grey.
Wave (i) should also break the left shoulder at wave ‘iv’ pink,
this level lies at 36.60.
If we see a bearish lower high develop in crude this week,
then we are setting up the same old relation ship that existed between crude and the stock market over the last three years.
Crude breaks first,
then stocks follow.
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave (i) to complete five waves down off the high and for a break of break 36.60.
S&P 500.
S&P 500 1hr
S&P 500 4hr
S&P 500 daily.
Just like Icarus,
I am flying very close to the sun these days,
I can only pray that my wave count doesn’t get burned up like his wings.
The all time high lies at 3393 in the S&P,
and here we are trading at 3226 this evening.
A breathless achievement after the fastest and largest rally in stock market history.
I’m sure this ends well!
The 4hr MACD has drifted higher over the last week,
and we are back in severe overbought territory, – but you know that already!
The main observation being,
that this high in momentum is still showing divergence from the main part of the rally back in mid April.
That was the high of wave ‘A’,
And now the high of wave ‘C’ is lagging as you would expect.
Tomorrow;
If ever there was a rally that went too far too fast,
and caught the imagination of the world,
it is this one we are living!
The market will pull the rug out from under us like a thief in the night.
And on that note,
I await wave ‘1’ of (C)!
SILVER.
SILVER 1hr
SILVER 4hr.
SILVER daily.
Silver has rallied today in a three wave pattern.
I have labelled this rally as wave (c) of [b],
and this is a correction higher that should create a lower high tomorrow.
Wave (c) down is expected to follow tomorrow and carry the price lower again.
So far the correction in wave ‘2’ looks like it will be a shallow affair.
The recent correction in wave (iv) offers support at 16.70.
And the trend channel for wave ‘2’ also suggests a low in that area.
So I will be watching for a low in wave [c] of ‘2’ this week.
And that should set up for a rally in wave ‘3’ soon.
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave [b] to complete a three wave rally to a lower high below 18.37.