Good evening folks, and may the Lord of hosts Bless you all this fine night.

Italian Artist Sells Invisible Sculpture for More Than $18,000 – not a joke, and yes this is just another sign screaming the top is in!!!

You know you’re in a huge bubble when typically conservative Germans join the party.

EURUSD.

EURUSD 1hr.

EURUSD 4hr.

EURUSD daily.

Three waves down within a trend channel is the main takeaway from the pattern this week.
This action does leave the alternate count wide open here.
That alternate count involves a five wave rally higher in wave [c] in an ending diagonal pattern.
rather than the three wave pattern that I am working with in the main count.
But even the alternate count has problems with the fact that price has broken below the alternate wave (i) this week.
So there is no perfect solution here for this weeks action.

Monday;
As far as the main count is concerned,
we have a reasonable series of impulse waves lower now in place.
Watch for wave ‘ii’ to top out and turn lower into wave ‘iii’ of (iii) nextweek.

GBPUSD

GBPUSD 1hr.

GBPUSD 4hr.

GBPUSD daily.

Cable seems to be completely range bound over the last few weeks as we search for a turning point into wave [i] down.

The pattern off the high is not ideal as we only have a three wave decline in place.
But as long as the 1.4200 level holds,
and if we get a decline back below the 1.40 pivot,
that will be enough to call a top in place for wave (4) and wave [i] of (5) can begin.

Monday;
Watch for price to fall below 1.4080 again to signal that wave ‘iii’ of (i) has begun.

The high at 1.4250 must hold.

USDJPY.

USDJPY 1hr.

USDJPY 4hr.

USDJPY daily.

Easy come easy go for USDJPY.
After yesterdays spike higher to break 110.20 I did think that wave (iii) up was underway.
But today the price reversed completely and fell into the previous low at 109.32 again.
This action now suites the previous call for a larger wave (ii).
and todays decline is viewed as wave ‘c’ of (ii).
A break of 109.32 will complete an expanded flat correction.
The way will then be clear for a rally in wave (iii) to begin.

Monday;
Watch for wave ‘c’ of (ii) to to complete with a break of 109.32 and then we should see a rally again into wave ‘i’ of (iii).

108.55 must hold.

DOW JONES.

DOW 1hr.

DOW 4hr

DOW daily.

I am fighting a losing battle with this pattern now!
But I am hopeful that the price can still turn around within the context of an impulsive decline in wave [i] and [ii].

We are so close to that all time high again and things are precarious again.
But this market has had every opportunity to put in a new all time high over the last few weeks and it has refused to.
I think this is a chink in the armor here!
The US government announces a 6 trillion budget and locked in excessive spending forever,
and stocks have basically shrugged at the charade!

Is this a sign of a tired market,
I think so.

Monday;
Wave (c) has extended to allow for another small lower high in wave ‘v’ of (c) to complete wave [ii] early next week.
Watch for wave ‘v’ to complete with a break of 34850 and then I will look for wave ‘i’ down again.

GOLD

GOLD 1hr.

GOLD 4hr.

GOLD daily.

Todays rally can be viewed as wave ‘ii’ pink already complete given the size of the rally.
The decline off 1916.60 is a five wave pattern.
And so far we have three waves up in wave ‘ii’.
If we see a reversal on Monday to break 1855 again that will signal wave ‘iii’ of (i) is underway.

Monday;
Watch for wave ‘ii’ to complete below 1909 at the very upper end.
A break of 1855 will signal wave (i) down is in force.

We should get wave (i) and (ii) complete by the end of next week.
This will complete a bearish impulse wave lower.
And then wave (iii) down will bring a serious acceleration lower.

CRUDE OIL.

CRUDE OIL 1hr.

CRUDE OIL 4hr.

CRUDE OIL daily.

$70 seems to be unavoidable and inevitable now.
With that big psychological number dead ahead and in the sights of this over bought and market,
hitting that level could even satisfy that speculative bit in the teeth of traders.
So if we hit the 70 handle and it results in a sell-off,
then we might have something worth working with again.

In general I am not satisfied with the current short term pattern.
The price continues to grind higher alright,
but there is a number of problems with the wave ‘2’ correction,
and the structure of the rally off that wave ‘2’ low that do not fit well.
For the moment I am just working with the wave [iii] rally to see where it brings,
but I would not be surprised if this market takes another big hit next week given the weakness of the action.

Monday;
Lest see if the price can manage a break above 70.00 and then hold that level as wave [iii] continues.
A break of 65.19 again will rule out the current pattern.

S&P 500.

S&P 500 1hr

S&P 500 4hr

S&P 500 daily.

The S&P has managed to push back to just below the high of the week this evening.
The pattern higher is in three waves so far,
but as I mentioned earlier, it is so close, but still not there!
So the bearish impulse pattern still holds for now.

If the market fails again below 4233 and does not hit a new high,
I will take that as a serious signal that the top will not be taken out again.
Close failures can lead to a pretty hard reversal.

Monday;
There is nothing to do here except wait to see of that all time high holds and we get a drop to begin wave ‘iii’ down.

If wave (iii) down does begin next week,
it will be a rapid and scary affair.

SILVER.

SILVER 1hr

SILVER 4hr.

SILVER daily.

Silver managed a three wave rally off this weeks low.
and at this point I am viewing this as a small correction higher in wave ‘ii’ of (iii).
The action to the downside is impulsive this week,
and so far the rallies have been corrective in nature,
this adds to the confidence level that a top is in fact in at the recent highs.

I have moved up the wave count by one degree today to allow me to label this correction today,
and this pattern now suggests a sharp decline is coming in wave ‘iii’ of (iii).

Monday;
Watch for wave ‘iii’ down to come and and drop below 27.00 to confirm.