Daily Elliott Wave Analysis – 05-30-19 – Metals look for a break out of correction mode.

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_separator border_width="5"][/vc_column][/vc_row]

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]

Hi everyone.

I'm late tonight as I was at an end of year drama performance by my 8yr old.

It's that time of year when teachers and parents get to see how all their hard work stacks up - it was a bit of fun at least!

Down to business.

[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row]

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_separator border_width="5"][/vc_column][/vc_row]

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]

EURUSD

[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row]

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_separator border_width="5"][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column width="2/3"][vc_custom_heading text="1 hr" use_theme_fonts="yes"][vc_column_text][/vc_column_text][/vc_column][vc_column width="1/3"][vc_custom_heading text="4 Hours" use_theme_fonts="yes"][vc_column_text][/vc_column_text][vc_custom_heading text="Daily" use_theme_fonts="yes"][vc_column_text][/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row]

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]

EURUSD is in position now
where a relatively small price move should trigger a larger degree decline.

Price has held above that trigger point at 1.1106 very precariously for the last few sessions.
And the price action was threatening a break of that level today.
But so far no joy!

The decline off the 1.1214 high can be viewed as a five wave structure,
Therefore wave 'iii' may have started off that level,
I will have to wait for confirmation of that alternate count over the coming days.

Tomorrow;
watch for a break of support which will confirm the alternate count and lead the way lower in wave 'iii'.

[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row]

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_separator border_width="5"][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]

GBPUSD

[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_separator border_width="5"][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column width="2/3"][vc_custom_heading text="1 hr" use_theme_fonts="yes"][vc_column_text][/vc_column_text][/vc_column][vc_column width="1/3"][vc_custom_heading text="4 Hours" use_theme_fonts="yes"][vc_column_text][/vc_column_text][vc_custom_heading text="Daily" use_theme_fonts="yes"][vc_column_text][/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row]

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]

Wave 'iv' is still controlling the price action today.
The wave 'iii' support at 1.2602 did break momentarily,
but prices have risen above that level again this evening.

I have allowed for the possibility of an expanded flat wave 'iv' now rather than the regular flat correction shown last night.
so wave 'c' of 'iv' should carry price back above 1.2750 at a minimum,
before the price turns back down into wave 'v' again.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave 'c' to push higher in five waves to break 1.2750 and complete a three wave correction.

[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row]

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_separator border_width="5"][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]

USDJPY

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]

The action in USDJPY is similarly undecided as EURUSD these days.
Price is rising off the support line at 109.02,
This could be the initial rise in wave (iii) of [i],
If we continue higher to break 110.66 then we will be on more solid ground in the bullish count.

But for the moment,
I am still watching 109.02 as a break of that level will trigger a decline into 107.70 to complete the larger wave '2'.
You could say that we are a type of limbo at the moment!

Tomorrow;
109.02 remains the focus and the trigger level for that alternate count.

[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row]

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_separator border_width="5"][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]

DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]

Todays rally off the wave 'iii' low at 24933 is reasonably corrective looking.
Wave 'iv' should trace out a three wave structure,
so it is hard to know if this correction is complete just yet.

A triangle in the position of wave 'iv' would allow a false sense of security to build again,
before the market brakes that confidence again
by taking us down again into wave 'v' of (iii).

This is purely speculative at the moment.
Whatever form wave 'iv' takes,
it must continue to hold below 25325 at the wave 'i' low.
If we see a sharp move lower tomorrow that will favor the idea that wave 'v' of (iii) was underway.
And wave (iii) should take the price down towards the lower trend channel line again at about 24500.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave 'iv' to continue in a corrective form and hold below 25325.

[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row]

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_separator border_width="5"][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]

GOLD

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]

GOLD pushed higher today and took out the high labelled wave '1'.
This rally can be viewed as the beginning of wave '3' of 'i',
I would be more confident of that view
if the price continued higher tomorrow a broke out above 1300 again.

Tomorrow;
At the moment,
things are beginning to look a little more positive in gold.
If this rally continues tomorrow then a trend change in wave 'i' is a real possibility.
Watch for wave 'i' to push towards 1300 again.

[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row]

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_separator border_width="5"][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]

U.S CRUDE OIL

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]

The crude market got wild today as wave (ii) completed and wave (iii) got underway.
Yesterdays decline was completely retraced this morning,
as price broke back above resistance again.
This rally completed an expanded flat correction in wave (ii) as shown.
The highs of the session only lasted minutes though,
as price then accelerated lower again in wave 'i' of (iii).

Tomorrow;
The high at wave (ii) should now hold at 59.70,
and wave (iii) of [iii] should continue lower towards the 53.50 target.

The alternate wave count is still a possibility, but even that count should still allow for more downside in the short term.

[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row]

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_separator border_width="5"][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]

US 10 yr Treasuries.

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]

The 10YR rallied back to the wave [i] highs at 125.80 again today.
This rise is labelled wave (b) of [ii],
and wave (c) should drop to about 124.80 again before completing the correction in a clear three wave form.
When wave [ii] is complete,
wave [iii] of 'C' will be ready to push price back to 127.00 again for the final time.

The big push into the bond market over the last few weeks looks smart now of course.
But when wave 'C' of (2) completes,
that will spell the end of the bond rally
we can then expect a sharp decline in prices, and a big spike in yields for the second half of the year.
This will all be part of wave (3) down.
And wave (3) down will take the 10YR down to about the 100.00 level again.
A bag full of bonds wont be so desirable then!

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave (c) of [ii] to drop below the wave (a) low at a minimum.
The previous triangle low at 124.80 is the likely target.

[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row]

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_separator border_width="5"][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]

SILVER

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]

Silver has risen in three waves off the recent lows at 14.28.
This action still clasifies as a correction higher,
But it may develop further into five waves from here.
If that happens,
then this could be the beginning of a bullish impulse higher,
but the price pattern will have to hold above 14.36 in that case.
If price does break 14.63 in five waves,
then a change of trend is again in play for precious metals.

Tomorrow;
The job from here is to identify a 5/3 pattern higher off the lows,
along with a break of resistance at 14.85 to complete a bullish impulsive pattern.

Watch for a rally above 14.63 to strengthen the bullish case.

[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row]

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_separator border_width="5"][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]

S&P 500.

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]

The S&P corrected higher also today in a possible wave (ii) of [iii].
The high of the session reached 2798 and this is labelled wave 'a',
Wave 'b' dropped to a higher low this afternoon,
and now wave 'c' should continue higher again above 2800 to complete the correction.
Price will meet the upper trend channel line again at 2812
and then wave (iii) down should take us lower again.
The bearish potential for wave (iii) of [iii] is significant,
So I will be watching for a signal off the wave (ii) high to confirm that wave (iii) has begun.
That should come later next week if all goes to plan.

Tomorrow:
Watch for wave 'c' of (ii) to complete above 2798 at a minimum.

[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row]

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]

[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row]

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_separator border_width="5"][/vc_column][/vc_row]