Hi there and good evening.
I did not do the video this evening in order to allow the market to close and have a good think about it!
Ok so lets get down to the charts.
The insolvency wave is coming!
here we go.
EURUSD.
EURUSD 1hr.
EURUSD 4hr.
EURUSD daily.
Wave ‘iii’ up has completed a five wave internal pattern at todays highs.
The price reached 1.1144,
this is 4 pips below the minimum target for wave [c] overall.
The sell off this evening is still viewed as wave ‘iv’ pink,
so the overall rally in wave (iii) should have a little more to go.
The price must hold above 1.1030 for this count to remain valid now.
Monday;
watch for wave ‘iv’ of (iii) to hold above 1.1030 and then turn higher into wave ‘v’ of (iii).
GBPUSD
GBPUSD 1hr.
GBPUSD 4hr.
GBPUSD daily.
The price breached above the 1.2363 level today,
this does not invalidate the main wave count,
but it certainly means that we should consider the alternate more closely.
That count is best viewed on the 4hr chart.
Now for the 1hr chart.
You can see the labels circled in red on the short term count.
The recent low is labelled wave [b] of ‘C’.
And a five wave rally should occur off that low in wave [c].
Waves (i) and (ii) completed with the initial move off the lows,
and now wave (iii) is underway.
Monday;
If the price rallies again on Monday to break out above the 1.2465 high,
that will trigger this interpretation.
While a decline back below 1.2067 will favor the main count.
USDJPY.
USDJPY 1hr.
USDJPY 1hr.
USDJPY daily.
USDJPY fell overnight and broke the minimum target level at 107.31,
and we even got all the way down to the support at the previous fourth wave.
This drop completed wave (c) and wave [ii].
Then we saw the rally in wave [iii] begin today.
The spike off wave [ii] pushed right back above 107.90 again.
The rally has only completed three waves so far,
so I expect a little more on Monday to complete wave (i) of [iii].
A break above 108.09 again would be ideal to complete wave (i) of [iii].
Monday;
watch for wave (i) of [iii] to complete with a break of 108.09.
Wave (ii) should correct to a bullish higher low,
and then wave (iii) of [iii] is set to carry the price back towards 110.00 again.
DOW JONES.
DOW 1hr.
DOW 4hr
DOW daily.
Well today action was a little easier to stomach compared to the previous week of relentless rallys.
The market did fall in a possible impulsive five waves into the lows,
but we will have to see some serious follow through next week to reinforce this drop.
This evenings bounce could be a possible second wave underway.
So if wee see a three wave correction to a lower high by Monday evening,
that will certainly favor the bearish idea.
At that point I will be looking for wave (iii) of [i] to push back below 24290 again at that recent fourth wave correction.
Then we will be at a very interesting point.
Three waves down can be a correction,
but if we drop even further and create five waves lower,
That will spell the end to this charade of a rally.
Monday;
It is early days yet.
watch for wave (ii) to trace out a three wave sideways correction to a lower high.
A break below 25000 again will signal wave (iii) has begun.
GOLD
GOLD 1hr.
GOLD 4hr.
GOLD daily.
Gold rallied in three waves into todays highs as expected.
this action has completed wave (b) of [iv] now,
and wave (c) of [iv] should get underway next week.
Wave (c) is expected to trace out a five wave decline into the lower trend channel line.
The price will hit that lower channel line at about 1670.
The minimum target for wave (c) lies at 1691,
which is the low of wave (a).
Monday;
Watch for a break of 1700 again to confirm wave (c) has begun.
CRUDE OIL.
CRUDE OIL 1hr.
CRUDE OIL 4hr.
CRUDE OIL daily.
Yesterdays decline just was not meant to be!
The market rallied this evening and broke above the previous high at 34.81 to invalidate the previous wave count.
It seems that endless bad news is good for crude also!
This weeks price action has tracked sideways into a triangle at todays lows.
the price broke higher out of the triangle and made new high at 35.87.
There is a gap at which was formed on the 8th of March.
the low end of that gap lies at 36.53.
It is likely that the price will be drawn to that level now.
So I will be watching that level next week.
Monday;
This rally is extremely over extended now,
If we do hit that gap opening early next week,
I think that will do it for the rally in wave ‘C’.
So next week is still likely to turn lower again in wave (4).
S&P 500.
S&P 500 1hr
S&P 500 4hr
S&P 500 daily.
The DOW was hit harder than the S&P today.
And the action off the high is more likely a five wave decline in the DOW also.
The drop today in the S&P is in three waves,
and again the price has rallied int the close and almost retraced most of the decline.
Only a sharp drop immediately on Monday will tip the balance in favor of wave [i] down.
Until then I have to bite my tongue!
As I have said over and over again,
and I am sure you are sick of hearing at this point,
every foundational structure underneath this market is already broken in a big way.
There is a sink hole in the earth,
and the price will fall into this deep chasm sooner rather than later.
The next leg down will be worth the wait!
Monday;
I am still on hold here,
living in limbo and waiting for the decline to start.
Lets hope next week will be kinder to us bears that are lurking in the woods!
SILVER.
SILVER 1hr
SILVER 4hr.
SILVER daily.
As you can see,
I am not entirely convinced by this rally today.
The rise off this weeks lows still has a three wave pattern to it.
So it is likely that this is an extended wave ‘b’,
with wave ‘c’ left to complete next week.
The correction in wave (iv) is now an expanded flat pattern.
So wave ‘c’ should drop back below 16.69 again before wave (v) begins.
The alternate count is low probability at the moment.
If we get a run up to the upper trend line and then a drop.
That will signal wave ‘1’ is done and wave ‘2’ is getting started.
For the moment I am allowing for a larger wave (iv) and (v) to complete before looking down in wave ‘2’.
Monday;
watch for wave ‘c’ to turn lower again.
A break of 17.50 again will signal wave ‘c’ is underway.
I am watching an interview with Kiril Sokoloff at the moment.
I think this is worth your time.
The world is changing underneath our feet so get used to it!
God Bless you all.
See you tomorrow in the weekend video.
enda.