Good evening to you all and may the Lord pour down His Blessings on you all.

Fed’s Reverse Repo Hits All Time High $485BN As Reserves Flood System

Not A Trace Of Inflation Fears In Blockbuster 7Y Auction

Biden Unveils $6 Trillion Budget That Will Raise Federal Spending To Highest Post-WW2 Level

EURUSD.

EURUSD 1hr.

EURUSD 4hr.

EURUSD daily.

I think the decline off the high at wave ‘B’ is still developing a five wave pattern lower.
The price is stuck within a small triangle formation today in wave ‘i’.
This suggests wave ‘i’ will spike lower again in the morning to complete five waves down and then correct to a lower high in wave ‘ii’ tomorrow.
If we see a lower high develop in wave ‘ii’ by tomorrow evening,
then we should see a more sustained decline in wave ‘iii’ of (i) on Monday.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘i’ down to complete with a drop into 1.2159 and then a recovery in wave ‘ii’ should begin.

GBPUSD

GBPUSD 1hr.

GBPUSD 4hr.

GBPUSD daily.

I have switched to the alternate count in cable this evening as the price has just not followed through to the downside as I suspected.
The triangle in wave (4) is no longer viable as the price just refuses to decline this week.
Wave (4) will still form a corrective high pretty soon and then I will work on a decline into wave (5).

I will start on the daily chart.
The recent rally is still viewed as wave ‘C’ of (4),
except wave (4) is now an expanded flat that should complete with a break above 1.4380.

the 4hr chart;
This chart shows wave [v] of ‘C’ as an ongoing five wave advance with wave (v) of [v] now underway off todays rally.

Hourly chart;
Wave [v] is breaking down as a standard five wave rally with wave (iv) of [v] complete at this weeks lows.
Wave (iv) traced out a combination correction,
and now wave (v) is heading higher again towards that 143.80 level to complete wave [v].

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘ii’ to complete above 1.4090 at wave (iv) and then head higher again in wave ‘iii’ of (v).

USDJPY.

USDJPY 1hr.

USDJPY 4hr.

USDJPY daily.

Todays rally has signaled that wave (i) of [iii] is now underway.
The price has rallied above the recent high at 109.79,
and with that wave have begun wave [iii] up.

We should see a five wave rally advance still higher in wave (i) of [iii] towards 110.50 over the next few sessions.
And then wave (ii) should again correct to a higher low early next week.

The price will continue the stepping higher we have see over the last month towards an acceleration higher in wave (iii) of [iii].

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave [ii] to hold at 108.56.
Wave ‘iii’ and ‘iv’ should continue overnight and hold above 109.06 at the wave ‘i’ high.

DOW JONES.

DOW 1hr.

DOW 4hr

DOW daily.

The biden team announced the largest government budget ever this morning,
and the market spiked higher off a corrective sideways trade over the last few sessions.
This evening the market has given back much of that bounce,
and we are pretty much flat on the day now.

So much for that salvo!

The US government had a 2020 DEFECIT of almost 20% of gdp,
and now the government is doubling down and actually adding in that pandemic spending to the normal budget,
and then adding to again!

It seems like the US government is hell bent on completely crowding out private sector investment completely,
and becoming the main player in the US economy.
Sounds pretty socialist doesn’t!

So what?
Well if if this spending is going to be so ‘good for gdp,
then why isn’t the stock market running higher again?

Maybe because this rally is done, and its time to turn lower again!

Tomorrow;
Wave (c) needs to complete and wave [ii] must hold below that all time high.
I am looking for wave (i) of [iii] to head lower again tomorrow to begin a five wave decline.

GOLD

GOLD 1hr.

GOLD 4hr.

GOLD daily.

Gold is holding that small lower high this evening off the top at wave [b].
The price barely reacted to the blatant inflation intentions announced by biden and the gang today.
Which does question the whole inflation premise a little in my book!

At this point a five wave decline has not materialized yet.
There is a significant bearish divergence in place alright on the 4hr chart.
and even if the alternate count is correct and this rally is wave ‘1’ of (5) now in place,
then we will see a pretty serious selloff into wave ‘2’ beginning soon.
So I am sticking with the downside at least for the short term in case of the alternate count.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘i’ of (i) to head lower and break 1850.

CRUDE OIL.

CRUDE OIL 1hr.

CRUDE OIL 4hr.

CRUDE OIL daily.

I am going to have to wait and see what happens regarding the invalidation high at 67.00.
the price is so close to hitting that level now,
and if that happens,
Then the whole bearish [i] [ii] count will be in jeopardy.
If the price breaks above 67.86 again that will require a complete rethink of the wave count again in crude.
So at this point I am going to see where this goes before jumping back on it again.

S&P 500.

S&P 500 1hr

S&P 500 4hr

S&P 500 daily.

The S&P never made it to a new weekly high today even after all the bombast in that budget.
It seem that the market is beginning to get a little exhausted with hype,
and every so slightly skeptical of the everlasting rally.

The bond market certainly seems completely oblivious any idea of inflation in the future
with an amazing appetite for US govt debt in 2yr 5yr and now the 7yr auction today.
The 7yr bond closed at 1.28%!

The bond market is calling B.S on inflation and infact is pointing to deflation coming our way!

The pattern this week can still be viewed as a small 1,2, pattern lower.
Where wave ‘2’ traced out an expanded flat correction.
This pattern requires the market to move lower tomorrow and break 4145 in wave ‘3’ of ‘i’.

Tomorrow;
Watch for the high at 4216 to hold and wave ‘i’ down to pick up speed.

SILVER.

SILVER 1hr

SILVER 4hr.

SILVER daily.

Silver is now showing a small impulsive pattern lower off the wave ‘ii’ high at 28.22.
This action may well be the initial move lower to begin wave ‘iii’ down.
If the price drops back below 27.30 again tomorrow that will signal wave ‘iii’ is underway.

Tomorrow;
Watch for the high at 28.22 to hold.
Wave ‘iii’ down should continue lower over the next few sessions.