Hi everyone,
Its an early update tonight as I’m a little ill this evening after a doctors appointment earlier!
So I will keep it short and sweet,
and hopefully I will be back to normal tomorrow!
Also,
I did not get to my emails today at all for the same reason,
so if you are waiting for a response please hang tough,
I will be back to you tomorrow also.
EURUSD.
EURUSD 1hr.
EURUSD 4hr.
EURUSD daily.
It looks like we have five waves up now in place in wave (i) this evening.
This should give way to a three wave decline in wave (ii) tomorrow.
Once wave (ii) completes,
wave (iii) will then rally up towards 1.1200 over the following days.
Tomorrow;
Watch for a three wave decline to a higher low above 1.0774.
This will create a bullish opportunity for wave (iii) mast likely next week.
GBPUSD
GBPUSD 1hr.
GBPUSD 4hr.
GBPUSD daily.
The correction today is a little small in comparison to the rally on Monday and yesterday.
I would expect about a 50% retracement in a ‘b’ wave,
and then a rally to complete wave ‘ii’ at the 1.2300 area.
Tomorrow;
wave ‘iii’ down can still happen next week.
so I will look for this correction to complete by the end of this week.
USDJPY.
USDJPY 1hr.
USDJPY 1hr.
USDJPY daily.
USDJPy has fallen in three waves off the high at wave [i] today,
I have labelled this as wave (a) of [ii].
The expectation is that wave [ii] will drop back into the 107.00 level at the previosu fourth wave.
And then wave [iii] should take over next week.
Tomorrow;
watch for wave (b) of [ii] to rise in three waves up towards the 108.00 level again.
DOW JONES.
DOW 1hr.
DOW 4hr
DOW daily.
The DOW refuses to drop off the highs labelled wave [ii],
but on the negative side,
the rally is failing now at these levels.
And momentum continues to churn out lower highs on the 4hr chart.
So this action really does have all the elements of the end of a trend setup.
We may still get a pop to a new high as per the alternate wave count,
but this will not last.
The turn lower into wave (C) has been postponed for another few days,
but that is about as much as I can give this market now!
Tomorrow;
A drop below 23755 will be the first signal that wave [i] down has begun.
GOLD
GOLD 1hr.
GOLD 4hr.
GOLD daily.
Gold is still looking corrective to the upside today.
This still counts as a small ‘b’ wave lower high within wave ‘ii’ pink.
And we should see wave ‘ii’ complete this week.
That means I am on the lookout for a rally in wave ‘iii’ to begin next week.
The question is,
does that coincide with the beginning of the next leg down in stocks.
We will see!
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘ii’ to complete with another drop below 1725 again.
CRUDE OIL.
CRUDE OIL 1hr.
CRUDE OIL 4hr.
CRUDE OIL daily.
Crude rallied out of that triangle pattern today as expected.
I am viewing this as a final push in wave (v) of [v] of ‘C’.
So the next major move should be to the downside again to begin wave (5).
This begs the question also,
does the next leg down in crude coincide with the next leg down in stocks.
I think so.
Tomorrow;
Watch for the first signs of a drop into wave [i] green.
A break of the 30.00 handle again will signal wave [i] has begun.
S&P 500.
S&P 500 1hr
S&P 500 4hr
S&P 500 daily.
The market registered a very slight new high today at 2980.2.
This fulfills the minimum target for wave (v) of [v].
So we will have to wait and see of this is enough leave behind wave (B) and go lower into the next leg down.
the rally today is in five waves,
so this also tips in favor of a completed wave (v) now.
Tomorrow;
The main level I am watching now is the high of wave (i) at 2852.80 cash.
A break of that level will shift the focus firmly to the downside again.
SILVER.
SILVER 1hr
SILVER 4hr.
SILVER daily.
Silver has stalled today after breaking above 17.57 momentarily.
The sideways action over the last few hours may be a consolidation in wave ‘iv’ of (v).
That scenario will allow for a clear break tomorrow to complete wave (v).
that in turn will complete wave [v] of ‘1’,
and then we can look lower in wave ‘2’ next week.
Tomorrow;
I suspect this rally is hitting the end of its run at least for the next few weeks.
Watch for wave (v) to complete.
A turn lower to break 16.00 again will signal that the larger wave ‘2’ has begun.