Good evening to you all folks, and the Lord’s blessings to you all tonight.

I really did not have to look hard today to find a litany of stories that are backing up the idea that the U.S economy is rolling over right in front of our eyes.

First, target posted a pretty bad set of earnings which is showing that the consumer is fed up and broke!

Target’s Plunge Exposes Inflation’s Risk To Margins

Then we get a signal that bond rates have toppe4d out again which shows a flight to safety and away from risk assets again.

Lost Decade On Menu As Yields Collide With 3% Hurdle

Then we get more layoff news from a sector that is supposed to be the mainstay of the new economy, online streaming,

Here Come More Lay Offs: Netflix Reduces Employee Count By 150, Mostly In U.S.

And to top it off, the housing bubble is done again!

US Housing Starts, Permits Plunge In April As Mortgage Rates Soar

EURUSD.

EURUSD 1hr.

EURUSD 4hr.

EURUSD daily.

Even though the decline off the wave ‘iii’ top is pretty sharp looking,
the decline in EURUSD has traced out three waves so far.
This action is still best viewed as a correction in wave ‘iv’ at the moment
and wave ‘v’ is expected to push higher tomorrow to break that 1.0593 level again.

Tomorrow;
Wave (i) up should complete above the resistance level at 1.0593.
If the price breaks 1.0416 again that will invalidate this count for wave (i).

GBPUSD

GBPUSD 1hr.

GBPUSD 4hr.

GBPUSD daily.

The decline in cable today has shifted the action in favor of a three wave rally in wave (a) as shown.
And now we are looking at a correction in wave (b) which should also trace out three waves down.
Wave (b) must hold above the 1.2155 at the very low end.
So obviously this count will be under pressure until wave (c) begins.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave (b) of [a] to create that bullish higher low that I have been looking for for a while now.

USDJPY.

USDJPY 1hr.

USDJPY 4hr.

USDJPY daily.

Technically the wave count off the top is still valid here.
The high of wave ‘iv’ has topped at the low of wave ‘i’,
so I can hold this count as long as there is no overlap.
Todays decline is in line with a fifth wave to complete wave (i) as shown.
And wave ‘v’ should break the low of wave ‘iii’ at 127.50 to complete.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘v’ of (i) to continue to the downside and complete five waves down in wave (i).

DOW JONES.

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DOW daily.

Well that action does qualify as an acceleration lower for sure.
There has not been a break of the wave (i) low yet at 31226.
but a break of that level will really favor my bearish outlook here.
Wave ‘i’ has not completed five waves down yet either,
so we should have another step lower to complete wave ‘i’,
and signal wave (iii) of [iii] has finally arrived.

If we complete wave ‘i’ tomorrow with a break of that support,
then we could see a corrective rally in wave ‘ii’ on Friday to finish the week.
Wave ‘iii’ of (iii) of [iii] is then reserved for next week.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘i’ of (iii) to complete with a break of 31226.
We should expect to see a corrective rally begin tomorrow.

GOLD

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GOLD daily.

Gold is working on that higher low in wave ‘ii’ tonight.
I am not sure that corrective wave is finished yet either.
So we might see another challenge of 1800 level again to complete wave ‘ii’ if this pattern is correct here.
And again,
if I am right about this bullish setup,
then wave ‘iii’ will launch higher towards 1880 by the end of this week.
We will have to wait for wave (i) to complete next week at this rate.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘ii’ to complete above 1786 again.

CRUDE OIL.

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CRUDE OIL daily.

Ok,
this wave count for wave [c] is getting too close to that wave (i) invalidation high at 105.15 for any comfort now.
The price has traced out three wave down off the recent top,
so the action is still corrective in wave (iv) at the moment.
But if we see a break of that wave (i) top again,
then the action will favor the alternate count again.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave (i) to hold at 105.15.
A full retracement into 97.30 again will signal wave ‘3’ down is already underway.

S&P 500.

S&P 500 1hr

S&P 500 4hr

S&P 500 daily.

The action today is suggesting that wave ‘i’ of (iii) of [iii] is now underway.
I can’t be sure of this until we see a break of the wave (i) low at 3859 again.
And we should see a correction higher in wave ‘ii’ again even if that low is broken.
So there is more work to be done here.

Another consideration here is that the retracement in wave (ii) was just not that large.
This just adds a little suspicion to my count here.
And I will be wary of the third of a third decline until we see confirmation.
For that reason I will leave that alternate count in wave (ii) in place.

Tomorrow;
Watch for a break of the wave (i) low at 3859 to signal wave ‘i’ of (iii) is in force here.

SILVER.

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SILVER 4hr.

SILVER daily.

I am on the fence about the count in silver this evening also!

The price has declined off the wave [iv] top again today,
but so far this decline is not convincing as an impulsive pattern yet.
That may change tomorrow with a sharp move below 20.83 again,
but for now keep an eye on that wave ‘4’ alternate count just in case we a larger corrective sideways move build over the coming days.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave (i) of [v] to break below 20.83 at a minimum.