Good evening to you all folks, and the Lord’s blessings to you all tonight.

Buying conditions for large household durables hits lowest reading on record according to May UMich survey.

This is a classic case of pulling forwards demand and then a collapse afterward.

2020-2021 massive government stimulus,

then a big wave of household purchases from that stimulus,

and now a complete collapse of actual demand has followed.

EURUSD.

EURUSD 1hr.

EURUSD 4hr.

EURUSD daily.

A small higher low has built off last weeks low at 1.0349.
Although this is a very tight margin here,
I think we can at least look to a possible five wave rally in wave (i) this week as shown.
the low at 1.0349 must hold
and I would like to see a rise back above the previous corrective range at wave (iv) by the end of the week
in order to secure this bullish count.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave wave (i) to continue higher this week.
Wave ‘iii’ of (i) should retrace back into the previous fourth wave triangle at 1.0550.

GBPUSD

GBPUSD 1hr.

GBPUSD 4hr.

GBPUSD daily.

I am starting with a little bit more optimistic view on cable this week!

there is a possibility that we are building a bullish higher low today to begin wave (a) up.
The count shows wave ‘i’ and ‘ii’ now complete,
and wave ‘iii’ of (a) expected for the next few days.
Wave ‘iii’ should push up to the 1.2500 area to complete.
And if I am correct here,
then wave (a) will hit finish a five wave rally near the 1.2600 handle again.

Tomorrow;
Wave [iii] must hold at 1.2155.
Watch for wave ‘iii’ of (a) to continue above 1.2400 at a minimum.

USDJPY.

USDJPY 1hr.

USDJPY 4hr.

USDJPY daily.

USDJPY has held below the wave ‘i’ low at 129.78 so far today.
And wave ‘v’ of (i) should fall again to break 127.50 over the coming few sessions.
If 129.78 does break,
then I will have to rethink the main count,
it is possible that a series of impulsive waves is a better fit here,
but I am going to give this count a chance before ruling it out completely.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘v’ of (i) to continue lower to break 127.50.

DOW JONES.

DOW 1hr.

DOW 4hr

DOW daily.

We are getting close to a three wave pattern higher off the wave (i) low.
The price corrected for most of the session,
and now this evening we have a spike back above 32400 again.
I am looking for a three wave rally into midweek to complete wave (ii) of [iii].
32600 is the first major target where wave (ii) retraces 50% of wave (i).
That level is dead ahead now,
if we see a break of that level and reversal and acceleration lower.
That will raise the probability that wave (iii) of [iii] is underway.
A break of 31230 again will confirm wave (iii) is underway.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘c’ of (ii) to hit 32600 at a minimum.

GOLD

GOLD 1hr.

GOLD 4hr.

GOLD daily.

I have been biting my nails today watching gold threaten that invalidation level at 1780.
The price spiked lower early this morning to hit 1786.
But this evening the price has recovered,
and is holding back above 1800 again.

We are not out of the woods yet,
but I do want to see that low hold at 1786 and a five wave rally to begin in wave ‘i’ of (i)

Tomorrow;
1780 must hold again.
If the price can push back above 1850 again by Wednesday,
I would be much happier about the bullish outlook.

Wave (i) must continue higher for the rest of the week.

CRUDE OIL.

CRUDE OIL 1hr.

CRUDE OIL 4hr.

CRUDE OIL daily.

Forgive the big price range shown on the hourly chart,
but I wanted to illustrate the alternate count as well as the main count tonight.

The main count is going along according to plan at the moment.
the rally in wave [c] now has a five wave structure in place.
the target has not been met yet for wave ‘C’ at 116.30,
so that remains ahead of us now.
Wave (v) of [c] of ‘C’ should hit that level by midweek.
And then a correction will be complete in wave (2).
with the expectation that wave (3) down will begin over the following weeks.

As for the alternate count.
A three wave pattern higher in wave ‘2’ of (3) is still a viable option here.
If the price fails to break above 116.30,
and we see a drop back off the highs towards the 100 handle again will confirm that alternate count.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave (v) of [c] to continue towards that upper target area at 116.30.

S&P 500.

S&P 500 1hr

S&P 500 4hr

S&P 500 daily.

The S&P is moving higher this evening again after a flat trade for most of the session.
I am looking at wave ‘c’ to push up towards 4200 again to complete a three wave correction higher in wave (ii).
This correction may take a few more days to complete so I suspect the wave (i) low at 3859 is safe for this week.
If this count is correct here,
then wave (iii) of [iii] will take over next week and fall back below 3859 again to confirm this bearish count.

Tomorrow;
Wave (ii) could complete three waves up before Friday,
it all depends on how the internal pattern plays out.

Watch for wave ‘c’ to continue higher in a five wave pattern towards that 4200 level.

SILVER.

SILVER 1hr

SILVER 4hr.

SILVER daily.

Silver has retraced much of the last weeks late declines today.
I am looking for a corrective rally this week though,
So this rally should be a three wave pattern overall in wave [iv].
And then a new decline into wave [v] will take over.

Todays rally has traced out a three wave pattern higher.
I have labelled this as wave (a) of [iv],
wave (b) should fall and create a higher low above 20.50 again by midweek.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave (b) to turn lower again tomorrow and complete near the 21.00 area.