Hi there everyone.
Here is John Hussmans take today:
“Not yet obvious in popular measures, but from a signal extraction perspective, our measures of internals are breaking hard. Some of that’s proprietary (can’t have everyone acting at once) but you may see it in coordinated breaks in support across multiple securities. Yikes.”
EURUSD.
EURUSD 1hr.
EURUSD 4hr.
EURUSD daily.
EURUSD is pretty stable today rahter than accelerating lower in wave ‘c’ of (c).
The price is stuck in a tight trading range of about 40 pips.
This may simply be a small correction on the way
towards that lower target for wave ‘c’ at about 1.0620.
the price is testing that initial support at 1.0767 this evening,
but we will have to see a break of that level and 1.0725 soon in order to stay with this short term count.
Tomorrow;
Price must continue to hold below 1.0895 at wave ‘b’.
And wave ‘c’ should break 1.0725 at a minimum.
GBPUSD
GBPUSD 1hr.
GBPUSD 4hr.
GBPUSD daily.
Cable was flat today also and the price action was tight and overlapping.
I can still count a five wave decline into the wave ‘i’ low.
Wave ‘ii’ was a short correction,
and that gave way quickly to another sharp move lower yesterday.
But todays action is a little suspect.
It seems to be corrective to the downside.
This could signal a small correction within wave ‘iii’ is playing out,
and then we should return to a more impulsive decline again by next week.
For the moment I am going to allow for some more upside before looking for wave ‘iii’ to get going again.
Tomorrow;
Wave ‘iii’ of (iii) should resume after a small correction higher.
this correction must hold below 1.2339 at wave ‘ii’ pink.
USDJPY.
USDJPY 1hr.
USDJPY 1hr.
USDJPY daily.
USDJPY is moving higher off yesterdays close call at wave (iv).
The price did not break the wave (i) high at 1.0666 which would invalidate the bullish count.
And the price is moving higher this evening again.
So,
for the moment wave (v) is in play and the minimum target lies at the 107.77 high of wave (iii).
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave (v) to continue higher.
106.73 marks the low of wave (iv).
That level must hold in the short term.
DOW JONES.
DOW 1hr.
DOW 4hr
DOW daily.
The DOW was swinging all over the place today
which may well fit the corrective scenario in wave (ii).
The futures were lower and then the market gaped lower at the open.
The market then rallied off the lows again.
Overall though the market is close to par with yesterday close this evening.
This action could all be part of a corrective wave.
I was looking for a correction higher in wave (ii) for today and tomorrow.
But you can view this whipsaw action as an expanded flat correction into todays highs.
So it is possible that wave (ii) is already complete.
If the market breaks back down below 23000 again
that should signal wave (iii) down has begun.
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘c’ of (ii) to complete soon.
We should then see a the initial move lower in wave ‘i’ of (iii) of [iii].
If this short term count is correct,
then next week is lining up to be a real whopper.
With a serious downside risk in wave (iii) of [iii].
GOLD
GOLD 1hr.
GOLD 4hr.
GOLD daily.
Gold is moving higher today and has finally broken out of the triangle formed over the last few weeks.
The price is consolidating above 1723 this evening.
And I am taking that as a vote in favor of the main wave count.
We are going to have to see a follow through on the upside in wave ‘iii’ of (iii) over the coning days though.
And a break above 1746 again will confirm the bullish count.
To confuse matters a little further,
I have included a possible alternate count for wave ‘i’ pink.
This would involve a leading diagonal in wave ‘i’,
which would be followed by a correction in wave ‘ii’ to for another higher low.
Only time will tell on this one I’m afraid.
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘iii’ to continue higher and break 17.46 again.
16.91 must continue to hold.
CRUDE OIL.
CRUDE OIL 1hr.
CRUDE OIL 4hr.
CRUDE OIL daily.
Back to the drawing board for crude.
The rally in crude today has ruled out the previous short term count.
The action to the upside is very corrective looking in general.
At this point there is only one pattern that will account for this action.
That is – an ending diagonal in wave [v] of ‘C’.
And even that pattern is looking extended today with a throw over above the upper trend line.
We should see a reversal lower soon out of the end of wave [v].
And ideally that would begin tomorrow.
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave [v] to close out and wave [i] down to begin.
Wave [i] should fall back below 23.00 again with relative ease.
But I suspect that we will have to wait until next week for that to happen again.
S&P 500.
S&P 500 1hr
S&P 500 4hr
S&P 500 daily.
The S&P is coming off the highs of the session today after a snap back rally off the lows.
I am taking the same approach as the DOW again,
this pattern looks to be an expanded flat correction in wave (ii).
With wave ‘c’ of (ii) creating todays sharp rally.
This mornings low at 2766 is now the key level to the reversal lower in wave (iii).
A break of that level should lead to an acceleration lower in wave (iii),
and that can easily take us down to 2500 again in short order.
Tomorrow;
The next major level of support below us now lies at 2727.
This marks the previous wave [iv] low,
and a break of that low could kick the stool out from underneath the market.
Watch for wave (ii) to complete and (iii) down to begin with a break of 2766.
SILVER.
SILVER 1hr
SILVER 4hr.
SILVER daily.
The small rally in silver is enough to switch out to the alternate count this evening.
So I have labelled todays highs as wave (i) blue of a larger rally in wave [v] green.
Wave (ii) will most likely correct back towards 15.50 again over the coming days.
that will create a bullish higher low at wave (ii),
and then we can expect a rally in wave (iii) out above 17.60 again in due course.
Yesterdays wave count now becomes the main alternate count.
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave (i) blue to complete above 15.82.
Wave (ii) is likely to begin early next week with initial support at 15.24.