Good evening folks.
Here is John Hussmans take today:
“Not yet obvious in popular measures, but from a signal extraction perspective, our measures of internals are breaking hard. Some of that’s proprietary (can’t have everyone acting at once) but you may see it in coordinated breaks in support across multiple securities. Yikes.”
EURUSD.
EURUSD 1hr.
EURUSD 4hr.
EURUSD daily.
We keep pushing the limit of wave ‘b’ each day,
There were two false summits so far,
but after todays high the price is falling again impulsively this evening.
This decline finally looks like the beginning of wave ‘c’ of (c).
And again,
I expect the price to drop into the 1.0680 area to complete the pattern in wave (c).
Tomorrow;
A break of 1.0767 will confirm wave ‘c’.
The minimum target for wave ‘c’ lies at 1.0725.
GBPUSD
GBPUSD 1hr.
GBPUSD 4hr.
GBPUSD daily.
Cable has moved lower this afternoon in a pretty impulsive fashion also.
The price has broken the initial support at 1.2245.
This action opens up the pattern for a larger decline into a third wave down.
If I am correct here,
then wave ‘iii’ of (iii) of [v] is now underway.
And this wave has the potential to fall back below 1.1900 again with ease.
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘iii’ of (iii) to hold below 1.2339 as it develops.
A break of 1.2100 again will add weight to this bearish count.
USDJPY.
USDJPY 1hr.
USDJPY 1hr.
USDJPY daily.
USDJPY fell again today and got close to invalidating the bullish count so early into this trend change.
The decline in wave (iv) has not broken the wave (i) high at 106.66 yet.
And so far this evening the price has reversed higher off the low.
This reversal must continue overnight and carry out above the wave (iii) high at 107.76 again.
That action will complete a five wave rally and setup a real trend reversal scenario.
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave (v) of [i] to push above 107.76 again.
DOW JONES.
DOW 1hr.
DOW 4hr
DOW daily.
The DOW is finally on its way lower again today,
after a close brush with invalidation over the last couple of days.
Todays decline is nicely impulsive also,
so we have the ‘right look’ to the price action.
I can count five waves down into this evenings lows off wave [ii].
I am counting this decline as wave (i) of [iii].
The size of wave (i) is close to matching the previous wave [i] down.
This suggests wave [iii] will create a large extension lower.
So we can expect wave [iii] of to reach 261% of wave [i].
That will give us a target at down below 21000 for wave [iii] to complete.
The price has broken below the previous wave [i] low also,
this is another box tick in favor of the idea that we are rolling over into wave (C) down.
We have a long way to go in wave (C),
but it is good to finally see some action to back up that wave count!
Tomorrow;
If wave (i) is complete with a five wave decline now in place,
then we should be looking for a possible correction higher in wave (ii).
This should trace out three waves and I would like to see that correction hold below the 24000 level.
GOLD
GOLD 1hr.
GOLD 4hr.
GOLD daily.
Gold is moving higher today against the backdrop of a falling stock market.
This is a good initial reaction for gold,
but it does not prove anything yet!
I am a little concerned by the lack of acceleration in todays action.
This move could develop impulsively tomorrow,
so I will reserve judgement for the moment.
Tomorrow;
I now want to see the price hold above the recent higher lows.
So Mondays lows at 1691 must now hold from here.
A break of that level will trigger the alternate count
and then we will have to wait for another low to form in wave [ii] again later next month.
Watch for wave ‘iii’ of (iii) to continue out above 1746.
CRUDE OIL.
CRUDE OIL 1hr.
CRUDE OIL 4hr.
CRUDE OIL daily.
The price got close to invalidating the short term bearish count today,
as the trade flirted with that 26.74 high again at wave (4) red.
The high of the session reached 26.45, and then the selling began.
So for the moment wave (4) is safe at 26.74.
And we can expect wave (iii) down to continue lower tomorrow.
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave (iii) to continue lower.
Wave (iii) down should break below the wave (i) low at 22.94 again before any correction in wave (iv) begins.
S&P 500.
S&P 500 1hr
S&P 500 4hr
S&P 500 daily.
The S&P managed to break 2800 for a a few minutes this afternoon.
The low reached 2792 and we have seen a slight recovery off that low this evening.
Just like the DOW,
I can see a pretty clear five wave pattern lower off the wave [ii] high.
It is hard to know if wave (i) is complete at todays lows,
or if we will see another leg lower tomorrow.
If wave (i) down is now done,
Then wave (ii) has begun with the bounce off the low this evening.
We can expect wave (ii) to trace out a three wave correction higher over the next couple of days.
Depending on the size of the correction in wave (ii),
It is even possible that we get the initial move lower into wave (iii) by Fridays close.
One step at a time.
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave (i) to find a low.
and wave (ii) to begin another correction higher.
Wave (ii) could hit as high as 2880.
SILVER.
SILVER 1hr
SILVER 4hr.
SILVER daily.
My analysis on silver this week has been incredibly boring indeed!
There is no change again this evening.
The relentless grind sideways over the last week is pretty unprecedented as far as I can remember.
I can only suggest that it is corrective and we may see another push higher in wave [b]
or a continued rally in the wave [v] alternate.
Tomorrow;
Any drop below 15.00 again will confirm wave [c] has begun.
While 15.82 remains the key level in terms of the alternate count.