Good evening to you all folks, and the Lord’s blessings to you all tonight.

This is a scary article to read, especially when you think about what is coming down the pike at us now.

https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/americans-are-using-plastic-make-ends-meet-prices-continue-rise

EURUSD.

EURUSD 1hr.

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EURUSD daily.

Well,
I am flip/flopping today on that triangle wave count.
The action now fits a larger degree correction in wave (iv) as shown.
And now we have a clear acceleration lower into wave (v).

The pattern suggests wave (v) is still underway this evening.
And with another step lower we will break the 2016 lows at 1.0340!
Now that is serious USD strength on display.
I suspect the recession will bring with it a reversal in EURUSD.

Tomorrow;
If wave (v) is now near to completing,
then tomorrow may be enough to do just that.

Watch for a break of 1.0340 to complete wave [v] of ‘C’ of [B].
And next week I will begin to look for that reversal again.

GBPUSD

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GBPUSD daily.

No sign of a final low for cable yet.
The price has spent the day drifting above a new low on the week.
There is a five wave pattern visible into the session low in wave ‘v’.
But the action today does not suggest we are done with wave ‘v’ yet either.

Tomorrow;
Watch for a sign that wave ‘v’ is bottoming.
Momentum has certainly slowed to the downside.
But yet we do not have any bullish spike off that final low.
And that remains the sign to look for.

USDJPY.

USDJPY 1hr.

USDJPY 4hr.

USDJPY daily.

USDJPY has broken nicely below the initial support at wave ‘iv’.
And now that lower support does not look so out of reach here does it.

So far we only have a three wave decline into this weeks lows,
a five wave decline should break the previous wave (iv) low at 126.95.
the price has rebounded off the lows this evening,
and I view this as the beginning of wave ‘iv’ as shown.
Wave ‘iv’ may even complete overnight and that will leave us with tomorrows session to complete five waves down.

That is an ideal scenario,
but we will see soon enough.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘iv’ ot (i) to complete a three wave correction by tomorrow.
Wave ‘v’ down should break 126.95 over the next few days.

DOW JONES.

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The market is forcing my hand this evening towards that more bearish wave count now.

the action is beginning to stretch lower in a possible third wave down.
While the internal pattern is not ideal in wave ‘iii’,
I do admit that the price action could clear up over the next session or two
to finally create a five wave pattern in wave ‘iii’ as I have been looking for.
This will require a notable acceleration lower in wave ‘iii’ of (iii),
and most likely a solid break of 31000 before any correction higher begins in wave ‘iv’.

If this count is correct,
then next week will be a brutal week with a series of continual drops to complete each larger degree third wave pattern.
And at this point we have a three degrees of third waves yet to complete to the downside.

I will leave the option open for a larger wave ‘ii’ correction higher.
A rally above 32000 again will favor that alternate count.

Tomorrow;
Watch for the possibility of a third wave extension lower in wave ‘3’ of ‘iii’ to break 31000 tomorrow.

GOLD

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Gold was taken lower along with all the general selloff in the stock market today.
And with that last nights speculative bullish count was invalidated.

I am back to searching for a low in wave ‘v’ of (c) again.
the target at 1818 is just below now,
This is where wave (a) and (c) reach equality.
If that gets taken out,
then the psychological level of 1800 becomes the next obvious choice.

The price must hold above 1780 as an extreme low for wave [ii].
A break of that level will force me to rethink the larger wave count.
And I don’t think you are going to like what that will mean for the eventual low in gold,
possibly in the low 1600’s area.

But I am getting ahead of myself here.

Tomorrow;
Watch for support to build around that 1818 level again.
If the trend channel fills in wave (v),
that will suggest a low near 1800 again.

CRUDE OIL.

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Crude is stepping higher today and this may be the beginning of a third wave rally to push back above 110.40 again.
The low of wave (ii) lies at 101.44 now,
so wave (iii) up must hold above that level if this count is to hold.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave (iii) up to continue in a five wave pattern.
Wave ‘iii’ of (iii) will likely break that 110.40 level again.

The alternate count will remain a viable option until that 110.40 high is broken.

S&P 500.

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S&P 500 daily.

The S&P has reached a new 12mth low today,
and that was definitely not the story for the year that the street was pushing in January!
But here we are,
and if the most bearish count is correct,
then we have much worse ahead over the remainder of the year.

I have mentioned that I am not totally satisfied with the structure of the short term count.
That has not changed this evening either.
But I am forced to stick with the wave ‘iii’ down idea until it no longer fits anymore.

There is a reasonable chance that wave ‘iii’ is only beginning now with a small impulse wave building in wave ‘1’ and ‘2’ of ‘iii’.
A correction back to 3970 area will fulfill this count well.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘iii’ down to continue lower in a five wave pattern over the next week.
The high at wave ‘ii’ must hold at 4055.
A break of that level will favor the larger wave ‘ii’ correction idea.

SILVER.

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SILVER daily.

Silver has had a pretty awful week if people were still holding to a bullish outlook.
Especially when the inflation narrative has fully taken over the airwaves recently.
But the metals continue to fall,
and this really only makes sense when viewed in terms of the pattern that is developing.

Overall the correction in wave [2] is in full swing.
Less than one month ago silver was topping in wave ‘2’ at $26,
now we see the price struggling above $20,
and this pattern is not done yet.

I think we are now coming to a low in wave ‘3’ of (C).
Wave ‘4’ will likely begin next week with,
that will take the price back above 22.00 again,
and wave ‘5’ of (C) is left to complete the pattern near the 18.00 level again I suspect.

Back to the short term.
Wave [iii] of ‘3’ has gone far enough now,
I am looking for a correction higher to begin next week in wave [iv] or wave ‘4’ alternate.

We will be able to better estimate a target for wave [iv] or ‘4’ once we get that initial recovery higher low as shown.