God Bless you folks tonight!

EURUSD.

EURUSD 1hr.

EURUSD 4hr.

EURUSD daily.

EURUSD has dropped in three waves off the high at 1.2180 today.
This is not enough to signal that the turn into wave [b] is underway.
I want to see the price drop below the previous wave (iv) at 1.1985 in wave (a).
And if that happens,
then we are on for a larger three wave decline into the 1.1700 handle.

Tomorrow;
I am tracking a five wave decline now in wave (a).
So I want to see more downside tomorrow and the 1.2180 high to hold.

GBPUSD

GBPUSD 1hr.

GBPUSD 4hr.

GBPUSD daily.

A similar view on cable today.
The move off th high is just not enough to get excited about yet.
especially since the price got so close to the invalidation level at 1.4239 this week.

I have switched to the alternate count for wave (b) this evening also.
This does not change the outlook at all,
but it does raise the level of wave (b) slightly.
And once the decline does break that wave (b) low,
that will be a strong signal in favor of the next decline into wave [c].

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave (i) of [c] to continue lower in five waves and break 1.40 at a minimum.

USDJPY.

USDJPY 1hr.

USDJPY 4hr.

USDJPY daily.

USDJPY shot higher today and broke above the wave (b) high at 109.42.
While we did not break to a new high above wave [i] at 109.69 yet,
this action does strongly favor the idea that we are moving into a new impulse wave higher in wave [iii].

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘iv’ and ‘v’ to push higher and complete a five wave pattern higher to break 109.69 to confirm wave [iii] is underway.
Wave (ii) should correct and hold a higher low above 108.32.

DOW JONES.

DOW 1hr.

DOW 4hr

DOW daily.

After putting in another down day today the market is sitting at the previous wave (b) low this evening.
And I can see a very convincing five wave pattern lower off the recent all time high.

This does not prove my bearish point of view at all,
but at the very least it is a pretty big warning flag in favor of my view!

If the decline this week is wave (i) as shown.
Then we should see a right hand shoulder build over the coming few sessions,
possibly into next week.
That will give us a nice head and shoulders off the top to work with.

I am noting this evening that the price has now broken below both the converging trend lines of the ending diagonal.
And the rising trend channel of wave [v] green.
Again,
another bearish flag.
Add to this picture that the price has just broken below the 200ma on the 4hr chart,
and the price is sitting on the 50ma on the daily chart.

All these pieces of information are interesting on their own,
but put them all together at the all time high of an extremely overbought, over leveraged market,
then we have a scary picture building!

Tomorrow;
There is still a chance that we get a further extension lower to complete wave (i),
so lets see if we find a low in wave (i) and begin a correction higher in wave (ii) by tomorrow evening.

GOLD

GOLD 1hr.

GOLD 4hr.

GOLD daily.

Gold has not budged much off the highs this week.
I have not changed my view on the prospects for another drop into wave [c] of ‘C’ of (4) here.
But I am willing to admit that the longer the price holds without a five wave decline off the highs,
the more likely that the bullish alternative for wave [i] is.

In terms of that alternate count,
that wave [i] high will still require a large decline into wave [ii] to over the coming few weeks anyway,
So at this point I think we are going lower in either case.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘i’ down to push below 1800 again and then a small second wave correction should begin.

CRUDE OIL.

CRUDE OIL 1hr.

CRUDE OIL 4hr.

CRUDE OIL daily.

There is nothing nice about the pattern higher in crude oil over the last week.
The price has continuously overlapped each new high in the rally off the wave [i] low.
So I think the best way to classify this move is still as a correction higher in wave [ii].

The price has not broken to a new high yet to invalidate the bearish pattern even though we came close this week.
And in this scenario I will stick with the bearish count.

I have relabeled the rally in wave [ii] today to should a complex combination pattern.
The final wave (c) of [ii] is tracing out a five wave pattern with a running flat wave ‘iv’.
Wave (i) down is still the suggested outcome from this pattern.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘v’ of (c) to complete and then a break of wave ‘iv’ at 63.72 to signal wave (i) has begun.

S&P 500.

S&P 500 1hr

S&P 500 4hr

S&P 500 daily.

Here is where we stand.
A long drawn out triangle in wave ‘iv’ leads to a new high and the completion of a pattern in wave ‘v’ of (c) of [v].
And now we have a possible five wave pattern lower out of a completed pattern in wave [v].
This looks like a reversal pattern to me!
And that is how I am treating it.

Wave (i) down is close to completing I think.
The aftermarket trade and the early action this morning created a triangle.
And the price broke lower out of that triangle today.

I view this as wave ‘iv’ and now wave ‘v’ down of wave (i).
Wave ‘v’ can go a little lower for sure to finish off wave (i) down.
We will soon see on that front.

But we now have a solid level in wave ‘iv’ at 4147 to act as a target for any correction higher in wave (ii) later in the week.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘v’ of (i) to find a low and then reverse higher in a correction into wave (ii).

SILVER.

SILVER 1hr

SILVER 4hr.

SILVER daily.

Silver has not confirmed wave (i) down yet although I am willing to give this time to develop.
The initial target for wave (i) lies at the previous fourth wave at 26.15.
If we have a lower high in wave ‘ii’ complete today,
then wave ‘iii’ should fall towards that level tomorrow.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘ii’ to hold at 27.69 and wave ‘iii’ down to continue lower.