Good evening folks.
One question from David Rosenberg today:
Since when do bear markets end on record optimism?
EURUSD.
EURUSD 1hr.
EURUSD 4hr.
EURUSD daily.
EURUSD has declines slightly off Fridays highs at 1.0873 today.
The decline has not developed impulsively just yet into wave ‘c’ of (c) of [b].
If the decline continues below 1.0765 tomorrow,
that should confirm wave ‘c’ has begun.
The provisional target for wave ‘c’ lies at the lower trend line in tha area of 1.0680.
Tomorrow;
Wave ‘b’ must hold at 1.0873 now.
Watch for the price action to develop into a five wave decline over the next few sessions as wave (c) closes out.
GBPUSD
GBPUSD 1hr.
GBPUSD 4hr.
GBPUSD daily.
After a three wave recovery into Fridays highs,
cable is now moving lower in a nice impulsive fashion starting early this morning.
The price seems to be moving into wave (iii) down now.
The drop off the wave (ii) high has not traced out a five wave pattern lower yet.
But I have labelled todays drop as wave ‘i’ of (iii).
Wave ‘i’ of (iii) will ideally break below initial support at the wave (i) low.
Then we can expect wave ‘ii’ to create a small lower high.
And wave ‘iii’ down should accelerate lower towards the 1.1900 handle in five waves.
The larger wave [v] itself is expected to break 1.1300 when it is complete,
so we have alot of work to do from here.
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘i’ of (iii) to complete below 1.2265.
Wave ‘ii’ will likely take another day to complete.
USDJPY.
USDJPY 1hr.
USDJPY 1hr.
USDJPY daily.
The overnight action in USDJPY has brought forward the rally into wave [i] today.
The previous count expected one last decline before turning higher.
But the price rushed higher today,
and has now broken out above the most recent high.
The action looks impulsive so far,
so I have labelled this rally as wave [i] of ‘1’.
It seems wave [i] up has not traced out five waves higher yet.
Todays high is labelled as wave (iii) of [i].
A side ways consolidation should occur over the next day or so in wave (iv).
and then wave (v) should push above 108.00 again.
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave (iii) to complete and wave (iv) to then correct to a higher low above 106.70 on the very low end.
DOW JONES.
DOW 1hr.
DOW 4hr
DOW daily.
The DOW is lower by a small margin this evening.
The rally into last weeks highs has lost all momentum,
and the pattern into the wave [ii] high is still intact as a three wave correction.
It is a close call right now,
but as it stands, we have a bearish signal in place off the high at wave (B).
And the next move for the market according to this interpretation,
is for a hard selloff to begin in wave [iii] down.
The market should create another lower high in waves (i) and (ii) early this week,
and then wave (iii) of [iii] will hold the majority of the decline ahead.
Tomorrow;
The move off todays high can be viewed as the beginning of wave (i) down.
A break below the 24000 level again will signal wave ‘iii’ of (i) is underway.
GOLD
GOLD 1hr.
GOLD 4hr.
GOLD daily.
Gold is stuck within an eternal correction these days.
The price is falling corrective off Fridays highs at 1723 all day.
This action can be viewed two ways right now.
And both of them are short term bullish.
Firstly,
the main wave count is calling for a rally into wave ‘iii’ of (iii) of [iii].
so the series of higher lows is viewed as a a set of impulse waves which are leading to an explosive rally in wave [iii].
The alternate count views this action as a continuing triangle correction in wave (iv) of [i].
Wave (iv) is complete at todays lows,
so wave (v) of [i] should push higher out of this correction now.
Tomorrow;
1668 must hold in both bullish scenarios.
watch for wave ‘iii’ of (iii) to rally tomorrow and break out above 1750 by mid week.
CRUDE OIL.
CRUDE OIL 1hr.
CRUDE OIL 4hr.
CRUDE OIL daily.
Crude oil has not dropped off the top of wave (4) in a meaningful way yet.
The price is holding at a lower high this evening though,
and I have labelled the decline as wave (i) and (ii) of [i].
This action should lead to a further decline in five waves into the lows of wave [i].
And wave [i] green should break the previous low at wave [iv] again,
before a correction in wave [ii] begins.
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave (4) to hold at 26.74 cash.
A break below 22.94 will signal wave wave (iii) of [i] is underway.
S&P 500.
S&P 500 1hr
S&P 500 4hr
S&P 500 daily.
The rally off the low labelled wave [i] is still in three waves.
Wave [ii] pushed dangerously close to the highs on Friday,
but the rally has failed below that level today.
The move lower looks impulsive to the downside again.
And I view todays action as the initial move lower in wave (i) of [iii].
There is on key level in the short term.
That lies at the previous wave (b) of [ii].
Wave (b) made a low at 2830.
If the price falls below this level in a renewed impulsive fashion,
that should confirm wave (i) down has begun.
And if that happens,
that will greatly increase the odds of a very large decline in wave ‘1’ of (C) over the coming weeks.
Tomorrow;
The short term action will prove critical over the next few days.
The technical backdrop to a large decline is in place for a few weeks now.
With diverging momentum in wave ‘C’ of (B), and low participation across the spectrum.
When this rally breaks,
its going to break in a big way.
watch for wave (i) to continue lower again and break 2830.
SILVER.
SILVER 1hr
SILVER 4hr.
SILVER daily.
Silver is holding on to the gains made late last week.
And the action today is looking quite corrective looking in general.
Is the price action starting to favor the alternate count now?
I may well be this evening!
I am willing to switch to the alternate count if we get a break above 15.82 again.
That will signal wave [v] of ‘1’ is underway.
And that alternate count would allow for a rally in wave [v] to push above 18.00 again before completing wave ‘1’.
Tomorrow;
A break of 14.80 again will signal wave [c] has begun.
But keep an eye on 15.82,
a break above this level will trigger the alternate count.