Good evening folks, and may the Lords Blessings be with you today.

Here is a fantastic interview I listened to today with David Rosenberg. It it worth your time for sure.

And finally,

here is the FED report which they spoke on for a while, it is also interesting.

EURUSD.

EURUSD 1hr.

EURUSD 4hr.

EURUSD daily.

The Jury is still out on deciding between the main and alternate count for wave ‘B’.
The rally off the wave ‘A’ low has reached close to the 78.6% of the wave ‘A’ decline now,
and while this does not invalidate the main wave count,
the rally is enough to question if this is actually all of wave ‘B’ now in place?

The pattern of the next decline will determine which count is more fitting.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave (v) of [a] to top out.
I want to see wave [b] down begin by Wednesday evening.

1.2210 marks the 78.6% retracement level.
Lets see if that Fibonacci level is enough to put a stop to this rally.

GBPUSD

GBPUSD 1hr.

GBPUSD 4hr.

GBPUSD daily.

Cable is very close to invalidating the main wave count after todays rally.
The price must not break above 1.4239 to in order for this pattern in wave ‘D’ of the triangle to remain valid.

I have shown another alternate for the pattern in wave [b] today.
This involves a three wave corrective rise into todays high.
Where wave (b) of that correction is a triangle.
This is noted by the labeles boxed in red.

As for the main count.
The same upper limit applies here.
Wave (c) must not break 1.4239.
Wave ‘iii’ of (c) topped out today and wave ‘iv’ is expected to fall again tomorrow.
We should see a clos to this wave [b] correction by midweek.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘iv’ of (c) to fall back into the trend channel again tomorrow.

USDJPY.

USDJPY 1hr.

USDJPY 4hr.

USDJPY daily.

USDJPY is holding above the 62% retracement level again today.
That level is not a hard limit for the retracement in wave [ii],
but it is encouraging to see the price spike higher again after hitting that fib level.

The rise off that low at 108.33 is not a five wave pattern just yet,
but if the price continues higher over the next few sessions,
and if we see a break above the wave (b) high at 109.42 again,
then we should be in good shape for a small bullish impulse wave to build this week in wave (i) and (ii).

Tomorrow;
Watch for 108.33 to hold and wave (i) continue higher and break 109.42.

DOW JONES.

DOW 1hr.

DOW 4hr

DOW daily.

Another day and another new all time high.
The rally into todays high has traced out five waves and I suspect that wave ‘iii’ of (c) is now done.
A correction tomorrow will add to this current count.

Wave ‘iv’ should then trace out a small three wave consolidation lower,
but wave ‘iv’ should hold above 34253 at the wave ‘i’ high.
And then wave ‘v’ of (c) will head higher again later this week to complete five waves up in wave (c) of [v] of ‘5’.

Tomorrow;
The most important level from here is wave ‘i’ pink at 34253.
A break of that level will signal that wave (c) is done.

GOLD

GOLD 1hr.

GOLD 4hr.

GOLD daily.

I gave an alternate bullish take on the current gold patter in the video from this morning.
And as I said there,
I am a long term bull on gold,
so I am not against the bullish short term pattern playing out.
I have shown a possible [i] [ii] pattern in play off the late march low.
But even that pattern should allow for a selloff to take place in wave [ii] pretty soon.

I just think there is a bigger risk of this bearish pattern playing out in the next couple of months.
And that is still where I stand.

Tomorrow;
We have a five wave pattern higher in wave (c) almost complete now.
The 62% retracement stands at 1851.
It will be pretty interesting to complete five waves up in wave (c) at that level and see a sharp drop off that point.
Then we will be staring in the face of a sharp reversal into wave [c] of ‘C’ of (4) over the coming weeks.

CRUDE OIL.

CRUDE OIL 1hr.

CRUDE OIL 4hr.

CRUDE OIL daily.

A three wave pattern higher in wave ‘ii’ has completed a lower high today.
The price has moved lower off that level today, as yet the decline is not impulsive in five waves.

With that it is impossible to say if wave ‘iii’ is now underway yet.
There is every chance that wave ‘ii’ will complete a larger flat correction to a lower high as a flat correction over the next session of two before spilling into wave ‘iii’ of (i) to the downside.

Tomorrow;
The high at 66.67 should continue to hold.
Watch for wave ‘ii’ to complete and wave ‘iii’ of (i) to begin with a break of 62.90.

S&P 500.

S&P 500 1hr

S&P 500 4hr

S&P 500 daily.

Well we are selling off a new all time high again today and the Monday bounce is now over!

At this point we have a five wave pattern higher complete in wave (c) as shown at Fridays high.
And now we have an initial drop off that high.
There is not mush else to read into the pattern here.
I have rattled on for weeks on how horrendously overextended this market is.
And no one can argue with me on that.
Until now there has been no consequence to rampant speculation,
no consequence until there is!

No matter how much I would like this decline to develop into the the ‘Big one’,
I have to remain subdued by the continuous appetite for speculation that has been displayed over the last few months.
So I will hold my tongue until something substantial happens from here.

Tomorrow;
The wave ‘iv’ low lies at 4147.
If that level holds,
then wave ‘v’ is still in play.
If that level breaks, then we can look to building a decline into the wave ‘i’ high at 3978.

SILVER.

SILVER 1hr

SILVER 4hr.

SILVER daily.

Silver is cooling off this evening after completing a five wave rally in wave (v) of [c] at the session high.
The action is beginning to turn in favor of a topping pattern now.
And if we see a drop continue over the next few sessions to break 25.68 at wave [b].
That will definitely give us something to work with on the downside again.

Tomorrow;
Watch for the high today to hold at 27.85.
Lets see if we can get five waves down to break 26.15 at wave (iv).
That is the first level of interest for a turning pattern.