Good evening to you all folks, and the Lord’s blessings to you all tonight.

EURUSD.

EURUSD 1hr.

EURUSD 4hr.

EURUSD daily.

I do think there is a little more downside left in wave (v) before we can legitimately look higher again for a change in trend here.
I am looking at a possible zigzag correction in wave ‘2’ of ‘v’ this evening.
This correction should complete below 1.0641,
and then wave ‘3’ of ‘v’ is expected to break below 1.0470 again starting tomorrow.
This week should be enough time to complete five waves down into wave ‘v’ of (v).
With the potential that a larger move higher is around the corner.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘3’ down to break 1.0471 at a minimum.

GBPUSD

GBPUSD 1hr.

GBPUSD 4hr.

GBPUSD daily.

Another week and another hunt for a reversal pattern to build in GBPUSD again.

The price did spike higher today off a low at 1.2260.
That move does not confirm anything,
but it can serve as an initial impulse to build on tomorrow and the rest of the week.

I am looking for at least a three wave move higher in wave (a) of [a] of ‘4’ over the coming week.
So three waves up to break 1.2636 again will serve as a good signal that the low of wave ‘3’ is in,
and then correction higher into wave ‘4’ is underway.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘a’ and ‘b’ to form a higher low above 1.2260 by midweek.
until we get that type of pattern in place off the low,
then I’m afraid I will be just operating on pure guesswork.
I will give cable a few days to either confirm or deny this idea.

USDJPY.

USDJPY 1hr.

USDJPY 4hr.

USDJPY daily.

USDJPY actually fell today after pipping above the previous wave ‘iii’ high overnight.
It is very early days here,
but this action is interesting at least in terms of building a case for a top here.

We have two previous fourth wave lows that are acting as support to this pair here.
Wave ‘iv’ at 128.61,
and wave (iv) at 126.92.
If we see a move below the first support at wave ‘iv’ this week
that will be a move worth considering as a reversal.
Until that happens, I will remain skeptical!

Tomorrow;
Watch for an initial decline to break below 128.61 by midweek to offer us a possibility of wave ‘A’ of (2) getting underway.

DOW JONES.

DOW 1hr.

DOW 4hr

DOW daily.

I have moved the wave count on the hourly chart by one degree tonight.
This does not change the character of the structure,
but it does allow for better labelling and the size of the waves off the high are now in proportion to the previous rally into the all time high.

The low of the session today came to within a few points of a new low on the year.
But I am not convinced that todays decline is impulsive yet to be honest.
The action is very choppy over the last few hours,
and I think this may suit a new low in wave ‘b’ of ‘ii’.
Rather than the beginning of wave ‘iii’ of (iii).

If this is the correct count,
then I suspect we will see a rally tomorrow into wave ‘c’ of ‘ii’.
Wave ‘c’ should rise back into the 33200 area to complete an expanded flat correction as shown.
And if that happens,
I will look for wave ‘iii’ of (iii) to begin by midweek again.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘ii’ of (iii) of [iii] to complete with a rally back into above 33000 again and possibly as high as 33200 in an expanded flat wave pattern.

GOLD

GOLD 1hr.

GOLD 4hr.

GOLD daily.

Gold is threatening the lows at wave ‘iii’ again tonight.
A break of 1850 again will signal wave ‘3’ of ‘v’ is underway,
and that wave should fall back into the 1830 area ideally before we see a correction in wave ‘4’ again.

In general I am looking for a five wave pattern lower to complete at wave ‘v’ of (c)
and that will complete the larger correction in wave [ii] this week.

1818 is the ideal target level for wave (c) of [ii] to complete
as that is where wave (a) will equal wave (c).
The trend channel will be filled at about 1800 again.
1780 marks key support here and that level must not be broken.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘3’ of ‘v’ to fall towards 1830.
This week will be enough time to complete the pattern in wave [ii].

CRUDE OIL.

CRUDE OIL 1hr.

CRUDE OIL 4hr.

CRUDE OIL daily.

Todays action is frustrating in terms of the straight forwards wave count that I was following.
Now that wave ‘2’ idea is out the window.
I did mention this as a possibility last week,
but I was hoping against hope that we would just complete that second wave and then turn clean into a third wave down.
Nice and simple!

Not so fast.
You can see on the hourly and 4hr charts that I have moved the wave count up by one degree today.
And I have also switched to an alternate count for wave (2).
Wave (2) is now an expanded flat correction.

In this scenario,
we are moving lower in a three wave decline in wave ‘B’ of (2).
Wave ‘B’ and that will break to a new low below 92.45 when complete.
Wave [c] of ‘B’ is already underway,
and that should trace out five waves down as shown.

The alternate count is the same here.
And three wave rise into last weeks high is a vote in favor of that count for sure,
I am going to allow another week for this new count to be proved wrong before going all in on the bearish count.

Tomorrow;
This week will be dominated by a five wave decline in wave [c] if this new count is correct.

Watch for wave (iii) of [c] to fall into the 99.60 area at the wave ‘b’ low.
A break of 95.10 will confirm this count for wave ‘b’.

S&P 500.

S&P 500 1hr

S&P 500 4hr

S&P 500 daily.

The action today has brought the market back below 4000 again and a new 12mth low.
So the S&P has now wiped out much of the 2021 rally at this point.
And if this short term count is correct,
then we are only getting started!

The decline today is not a clear cut third wave down going by the nature of the action.
There is a little too much overlap internally for my liking to call this wave ‘iii’ now in full swing.

But there is a possibility that todays decline is wave ‘1’ of ‘iii’ of (iii),
and if so,
then we will see a reversal higher in wave ‘2’ of ‘iii’ tomorrow.
A break above 4158 will break the wave ‘ii’ high.

Tomorrow;
If we see a three wave rally that stops below 4150 that will signal wave ‘ii’ is complete.
So watch for a possible Tuesday reversal rally!

If the market continues to work lower tomorrow,
then I will admit that wave ‘iii’ of (iii) is taking over here!

SILVER.

SILVER 1hr

SILVER 4hr.

SILVER daily.

Silver is working lower again today and I suspect this price is now tracing out wave ‘iii’ of (v).
Again the internal pattern is not ideal within wave ‘iii’,
but as long as the price progresses to the downside,
then this count will stand.
If the price breaks back above 22.00 again over the next few sessions,
that will signal the low of wave (v) of [iii] is in.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘iii’ of (v) to complete and any correction in wave ‘iv’ should hold below 22.00.
I am looking for wave (v) of [iii] to complete with a break of 21.40.