Good evening folks.
EURUSD.
EURUSD 1hr.
EURUSD 4hr.
EURUSD daily.
EURUSD is still refusing to break support at 1.0725 yet.
The price action was quite flat today.
In general I think the price is still moving within wave (c) of [b] at the moment.
And todays sideways move is likely a correction in wave ‘iv’ of (c).
Where wave ‘iv’ is tracing out a running flat correction.
This pattern suggests another drop is ahead in wave ‘v’ of (c).
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘iv’ to complete very soon.
Wave ‘v’ will be confirmed with a drop below 1.0781.
GBPUSD
GBPUSD 1hr.
GBPUSD 4hr.
GBPUSD daily.
Cable is whipsawing around wildly today which is pressuring the short term wave count.
The sharp drop early today was exepcted in wave ‘iii’ of (i),
but the rally off the low is not in keeping with a correction higher in wave ‘iv’.
It is still possible that wave ‘iv’ will develop into a flat or triangle correction tomorrow.
That implies another drop in wave ‘v’ to compelte wave (i).
But there is another interpretation that might also fit.
If wave (i) is complete at todays lows,
then this rally off the low is wave ‘a’ of (ii).
In this case we will see a three wave rally from here and a bearish lower higher complete in wave (ii) by tomorrow evening.
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘iv’ to hold below 1.2405.
A break of that level will trigger the alternate count.
USDJPY.
USDJPY 1hr.
USDJPY 1hr.
USDJPY daily.
I have presented another possible count for the final leg down in wave ‘C’ of (E) this evening.
the decline is wave ‘C’ is becoming too choppy looking now to label as a regular five wave pattern.
The price action now suggests a possible ending diagonal for wave ‘C’.
The drop in wave [iii] of ‘C’ is the main catalyst for this change.
That wave clearly traced out a three wave pattern.
Todays rally broke above the wave [i] low,
so this is labelled wave (a) of [iv].
And wave [iv] should trace out a three wave pattern again.
Wave [v] will drop down to the lower trend line to finish the pattern.
Tomorrow;
If this pattern continues as suggested,
then wave ‘C’ will complete at about 105.60.
Watch for wave [iv] to complete with a run up to 106.70 again,
before turning down into wave [v].
DOW JONES.
DOW 1hr.
DOW 4hr
DOW daily.
Stocks fell in three waves during the out of hours trading.
This action completed wave (b) of [ii] and then wave (c) came in today.
The price rallied for most of the session in wave (c) until this evening.
And now we have a reasonable move lower off a small double top just above 24000.
It would be better for the short term count if the price broke to a new high above wave (a).
Then we could call wave [ii] complete in a clear three wave correction.
So at the moment the jury is out on whether we have wave (c) complete yet.
As I mentioned yesterday,
if the price moves sharply lower off this level and takes out the wave [i] low at 23361 cash.
That will signal wave (i) of [iii] has started.
Tomorrow;
I am looking for more solid confirming price action now,
to signal that wave [ii] is over and wave [iii] underway.
Watch for wave (c) to complete with a break of 24170 an then turn into wave [iii] down.
GOLD
GOLD 1hr.
GOLD 4hr.
GOLD daily.
Despite some encouraging price action today,
gold has refused to break that wave ‘b’ high at 1721.80 so far this evening.
This afternoons rally came to a screeching halt at that level and immediately backed off.
It is hard to doubt that the action is indeed very impulsive now off that wave ‘ii’ low at 1681.
And this does favor the idea that wave ‘iii’ has begun.
But I need to see a break of those resistance levels to confirm that wave ‘iii’ of (iii) is now underway.
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘iii’ pink to continue higher.
If this is truly wave ‘iii’ now underway,
then the price should easily break above all those previous highs in short order.
The higher degree wave (iii) should even carry price back up towards the all time highs again.
CRUDE OIL.
CRUDE OIL 1hr.
CRUDE OIL 4hr.
CRUDE OIL daily.
Crude is rapidly moving lower off a double top at wave [v] today.
The price action seems very impulsive to the downside again this evening.
And I have labelled this move as wave [i] down now underway.
Wave [i] should trace out a clear five wave pattern lower off the high at wave (4).
And I want to see a break of the previous wave [iv] low at 19.48 over the coming days.
A break of that low will confirm the top is in for wave (4).
Tomorrow;
The action from here is critical.
A lower high in wave (ii) will lead the way for a sharp drop into initial support at 19.48 in wave (iii).
Watch for wave (ii) to compelte tomorrow evening below 27.00.
Wave (iii) of [i] should begin early on Monday then.
S&P 500.
S&P 500 1hr
S&P 500 4hr
S&P 500 daily.
After correcting in three waves to complete wave (b) yesterday,
the S&P rallied out of the open and actually hit a slight new high today in wave (c).
This evenings new high has technically achieved the minimum target for wave [ii].
So at this point I can begin to look lower again in wave [iii] of ‘1’.
If this decline continues tomorrow and breaks the wave (b) low at 2847,
this will signal wave [ii] is complete and wave (i) of [iii] has begun.
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave (i) of [iii] to begin with a break of 2847.
A break of 2800 cash again will confirm that wave [iii] down is underway.
SILVER.
SILVER 1hr
SILVER 4hr.
SILVER daily.
Silver is proving to be the most un-eventful market this week.
In fact the price has barely budged out of a $1 range over the last three weeks.
I think this action is reflecting a real disinterest in the metal now,
after that heavy decline a few months back.
Also,
this ‘disinterest’ is usually a good indicator that a market has actually bottomed fro the long term.
As people tend forget about a market completely after the damage is over.
That is essentially the contrarian viewpoint in a nutshell.
Silver still refuses to break out above 15.51 to trigger the alternate count.
So I will stick with the triangle wave [b] scenario until proved wrong.
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave [b] to complete with one more lower high tomorrow.
Wave [c] of ‘2’ down should begin early next week.