Hi there everyone,
In case you missed the weekend video,
Here it is;
Also,
I want to draw your attention to a couple of pieces I saw today.
And this chart;
Hedge funds are now fully bearish again according to the latest COT data.
These guys are not buying the dip like the trend followers in ETF dreamland.
They are selling strength as much as the were at the all time highs.
I think the scene is set here.
I can’t say that I am not disappointed this evening!
The stock market has refused to turn down in any meaningful way to begin wave (C) yet.
The world has been hit with bad news story after bad news story this week,
but the market rose relentlessly all the same!
It just goes to show that news itself does not drive behavior.
I know that shift in mood is coming that will knock the market off its comfy perch.
And when the mood does turn sour again,
wave (C) down is going to punch so hard
it will seem like the world has come to an end!
The hedge fund guys and gals agree!
Ok,
down to business.
EURUSD.
EURUSD 1hr.
EURUSD 4hr.
EURUSD daily.
EURUSD pushed higher than I had expected today in wave ‘iv’ pink.
So I have switched to a slightly different interpretation this evening for wave (c).
The pattern now seems to fit a three wave decline in wave (c) rather than a five wave decline as shown before.
The retracement in wave ‘b’ over the last few days should now give way to a drop in wave ‘c’ to break 1.0725 again.
And once wave (c) completes,
I will begin to look higher again next week in wave [c].
Monday;
Watch for wave ‘b’ to complete and wave ‘c’ down to begin.
Wave ‘c’ should push into the lower trend channel line at 1.0690 again.
GBPUSD
GBPUSD 1hr.
GBPUSD 4hr.
GBPUSD daily.
I have also altered the short term count for cable this evening.
I now view the decline into Thursdays lows as a full five wave decline.
The market has rallied off that low at 1.2265 in three waves so far.
So todays high at 1.2466 seems to have completed wave (ii).
We have seen a drop off that high into the close this evening.
It’s early days,
but this drop should lead us down in wave (iii) of [v] over the next week.
Monday;
Watch for wave ‘i’ of ‘ii’ to create another lower higher by Tuesday.
Wave ‘iii’ down should easily slice down through the 1.2160 support.
USDJPY.
USDJPY 1hr.
USDJPY 1hr.
USDJPY daily.
The ending diagonal scenario for wave ‘C’ is working well so far.
The price rose in thee waves into the declining trend line this evening.
Its not clear if wave (c) of [iv] is completed yet,
but that should be done by Monday evening.
And then we can concentrate on another decline in wave [v] of ‘C’ next week.
I am looking at the next decline as the final drop in wave (E) of a long standing correction in wave [B].
This should give way to a sustained rally in USDJPY as wave [C] gets underway.
Monday;
Watch for wave [iv] to complete and wave [v] to turn lower into the target at 105.60 next week.
DOW JONES.
DOW 1hr.
DOW 4hr
DOW daily.
We have an impulsive decline in place off last weeks highs with wave [i] down.
And the rally off the wave [i] low is in three waves,
which suggests wave [ii] is now done.
If wave [ii] is done,
then wave [iii] down will be next weeks big news story!
And that will kick off a much larger decline in the long awaited wave (C).
The price seems to have completely flat lined today.
Volume has also collapsed today,
and we are right back to the thin market we saw at the February highs again!
Not a good place to be off a three wave rally!
Monday;
As it stands,
we have a bearish impulse wave in place at wave [ii].
A decline back below the wave [i] lows at 23361 again
will signal wave [iii] has begun.
GOLD
GOLD 1hr.
GOLD 4hr.
GOLD daily.
Gold is again creating a higher low this evening,
as the market is correcting off the session highs at 1720.
This is the third higher low that has been created in a row over the last two weeks.
So this pattern gets even more interesting as each day passes.
As long as the market continues to step higher like this,
then wave [iii] up is very much on the cards.
And when we do get a break above the 1746 high again,
that will confirm wave [iii] is underway.
I am aware also that this pattern can be viewed as a contracting triangle.
with that in mind,
we could call this a fourth wave correction in wave (iv) of [i] also.
Again this alternate view requires more upside in the short term.
Monday;
watch for the low at 1681 to hold.
Wave (iii) up should continue next week.
A break of the high at 1746 will confirm the bullish count.
CRUDE OIL.
CRUDE OIL 1hr.
CRUDE OIL 4hr.
CRUDE OIL daily.
Crude is also waiting for a turn lower to begin in a big way.
The price has stalled at a lower high this evening below this weeks highs in wave ‘C’ of (4).
I am labeling this decline off the high as waves (i) and (ii),
this count calls for a larger decline to begin again next week in wave (iii).
I could also move this wave count up by one degree,
it serves the same purpose either way,
so we will have to wait and see on that front.
Monday;
watch for wave (iii) of [i] to continue lower.
wave [i] itself should trace out a clear five waves down by the end of next week.
S&P 500.
S&P 500 1hr
S&P 500 4hr
S&P 500 daily.
Things are getting a bit too close for comfort right now in the S&P.
The market is still below last weeks highs at 2954,
So I am still sticking with the bearish wave count.
But given that we have rallied back so close to that high again over the last few days,
I want to stay cautious now and hold off making a judgement call,
until the price action either confirms the current wave count by falling sharply into wave [iii] down.
Or,
ruling out the short term count by breaking 2954 again.
A break of 2954 will not rule out the bearish count for wave (B) at all.
It simply means that wave ‘C’ of (B) will top out with one more high.
Monday;
A drop below 2847 again on Monday will pretty musch secure the bearish count,
and we can expect a follow through into wave [iii] over the rest of the week.
Watch for 2954 to hold.
SILVER.
SILVER 1hr
SILVER 4hr.
SILVER daily.
There is no major change in the short term outlook for Silver this evening.
I think it is still prudent to allow for a final decline into wave [c] of ‘2’ over the coming few sessions.
With a minimum target at 14.49 again.
This action will complete a long drawn out wave ‘2’ correction,
and then we can expect a run higher in wave ‘3’ over the next month or so.
The alternate count is looking for one more high in wave [v] of ‘1’ to complete,
before beginning wave ‘2’ all over again!
So I prefer the idea of a quick drop in to complete wave ‘2’ early to be honest!
Monday;
Watch for todays highs to give way to wave [c] down early next week.
A break below the 15.00 level again will signal wave [c] is in force.
I pray you all have an enjoyable weekend.
I will be back on Monday evening as usual.
And I am gunning for next week to be the turning point down into the mire of wave (C) in stocks.
It should be exciting to say the least!
God’s Blessings to you all.
enda.