Good evening to you all folks, and the Lord’s blessings to you all tonight.

I am going to keep tonight’s update short and sweet as I am feeling a a bit under the weather this evening.
Nothing a good nights sleep wont fix,
but my concentration is dropping fast now!

I have posted the video below from earlier today and there are some interesting weekly charts in there to chew on.

I am going to include the weekly and monthly charts on a linked separate page for you guys next week.
I think it does help to know where we sit within the larger cycle.
And I don’t know why I didn’t do this before!

I have also included a keynote speech that David Rosenberg gave to the CFA society in Canada last weekend I think.
It is a knockout speech and really worth the 30mins.
It is funny how his work dovetails with my own in so many areas.

I do think he is absolutely spot on with his outlook for recession this year,
and as he says,
the question is not if there will be a recession,
but how deep and how long will it be.

I think very deep and very long.
But that’s just me wallowing in my own bearishness!

God’s Blessings to you all this weekend.
Fasten your seatbelts next week!

Enda.

EURUSD.

EURUSD 1hr.

EURUSD 4hr.

EURUSD daily.

The price is holding the lower high below wave ‘iv’ today.
And I am tracking a final five wave decline into wave ‘v’ of (v) for next week.

Watch for wave ‘3’ of ‘v’ to fall and break 1.0470 again.

GBPUSD

GBPUSD 1hr.

GBPUSD 4hr.

GBPUSD daily.

Five waves down seems complete at this weeks lows of 1.2276.
No sign of a reversal higher yet,
but a rally to break 1.2636 again next week will confirm the turn I think.

USDJPY.

USDJPY 1hr.

USDJPY 4hr.

USDJPY daily.

USDJPY has failed to push to a new high yet in wave ‘v’ of (v).
But I suspect that will happen given the clear corrective structure of the decline this week.
We need to see a break of 131.25 at a minimum.

DOW JONES.

DOW 1hr.

DOW 4hr

DOW daily.

The Dow is holding pretty flat today after a possible five wave decline in wave ‘1’ yesterday.
We can allow for a correction higher in wave ‘2’ on Monday,
but a break below 32270 again will signal wave ‘iii’ is already underway.

Wave ‘iii’ of (iii) is the main focus next week.
So watch out for an acceleration into wave ‘iii’ by midweek next week at the latest.

GOLD

GOLD 1hr.

GOLD 4hr.

GOLD daily.

Gold has only managed a very choppy and corrective looking rise today after a pretty sharp drop yesterday.
So I am reasonably confident that this is only a second wave correction higher,
and wave ‘3’ of ‘v’ will turn lower again tomorrow.
The minimum target for wave ‘v’ is 1850 again.
We should know by the end of next week if there is any signs to begin a rally in gold or not.

CRUDE OIL.

CRUDE OIL 1hr.

CRUDE OIL 4hr.

CRUDE OIL daily.

Crude is really struggling to break that 110 handle today
and every day that goes by without a clear acceleration to complete wave (iii) is another vote in favor of the alternate count here.
Watch for wave (iii) up to continue above 110 on Monday.
A break of 105 again will really hurt the bullish count here.

S&P 500.

S&P 500 1hr

S&P 500 4hr

S&P 500 daily.

Wave ‘i’ down seems complete at that double bottom low at 4063.
wave ‘ii’ is likely to pop again on Monday to complete three waves up to the 4170 area.
If that happens I will be looking for a third of a third decline to take over by Wednesday at the latest.

Watch for wave ‘ii’ to complete early next week.

SILVER.

SILVER 1hr

SILVER 4hr.

SILVER daily.

Silver is showing three waves up to the high at 22.62 today.
The price has not turned sharply lower into wave ‘iii’ yet,
but I am looking for that to begin on Monday.
23.26 must hold from now on.