Good evening folks, and may the Lords Blessings be with you today.

What recovery?????

EURUSD.

EURUSD 1hr.

EURUSD 4hr.

EURUSD daily.

Todays rally is viewed as the beginning of a three wave rise in wave ‘a’ of (b) as shown.
The price should move sideways tomorrow and hold below 1.2148 as wave (b) completes.
Wave (c) is expected to come in next week and break below 1.1900 again to complete a three wave decline in wave [b].

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘b’ and ‘c’ to continue sideways to form that flat correction wave (b) as shown.
A break of 1.1985 again will signal wave (c) has begun.

GBPUSD

GBPUSD 1hr.

GBPUSD 4hr.

GBPUSD daily.

Cable broke above the 1.3930 level today and with that,
I have switched to the alternate count for wave [b].

The pattern in wave [b] is now viewed as a contracting triangle.
With wave (c) of [b] complete at todays high.
The price dropped today into wave (d) of [b],
and we should see wave (e) of [b] close out tomorrow with a further lower high below 1.3939.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave (d) to find a low above 1.3797 at wave (b) early tomorrow.
Wave (e) should then grind higher into the trend line as shown.

USDJPY.

USDJPY 1hr.

USDJPY 4hr.

USDJPY daily.

The wave (b) triangle closed out today at 109.42.
The price then broke lower off the triangle,
but the action is pretty corrective so far.

I want to see a five wave decline into wave (c) over the coming days.
And todays action is has not developed in that manner at all.
So we may be dealing with a larger wave (b) pattern that has not made itself known just yet.
I will have to wait and see on that front.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave (c) to continue lower tomorrow and on Monday also.
A break of 108.89 is the minimum target,
but I expect a little more from wave (c) to be honest!

109.42 must hold at wave (b).

DOW JONES.

DOW 1hr.

DOW 4hr

DOW daily.

The pattern in this market is not getting any clearer as the days go on.
We have impulsive bursts lower and then higher again all overlapping previous lows and highs.
The action is strained to say the least.

The market reached to another new high today,
and the price hit the upper trend line this afternoon in wave ‘v’ pink.
The rise out of a triangle in wave ‘iv’ pink is about as complicated as you could get.
I have shown a possible five wave pattern in wave ‘v’,
but this involves a very large wave ‘2’ and a relatively small wave ‘5’.
And within this wave ‘v’ pattern is a whole lot of overlapping bars.
There is no hard target above us here,
but we do have a series of important levels now in place at the previous wave ‘iv’ (a) and (b).
The critical support to this rally lies at 32067,
so we will have to see a very sharp decline to break these supports.

Tomorrow;
I am keeping an eye on that rising trend line again.
This squeeze to the upside is going to end.
And when it does,
I think it will be brutal.

GOLD

GOLD 1hr.

GOLD 4hr.

GOLD daily.

Gold has triggered the alternate count that I spoke about yesterday.
I am looking at this recent rally off the late March lows as wave (c) of (b),
rather than wave (c) of [iv] of the previous count.
Both counts are very similar in outcome.
This count is calling for a new low below 1650 in wave [c] of ‘C’ of (4) as seen on the 4hr chart.

There is room for wave (c) to fill the trend channel in wave (c).
The price reached the 50% retracement level of wave [a] at todays highs,
but a rise into the upper trend line will put wave [b] right into the area of the 62% retracement level.
We will see soon enough.

I am never a fan running into the arms of a popular narrative,
and I think the hyper-inflation narrative is everywhere right now.

This narrative has now made its way into message boards, magazines and videos everywhere.
And along with this we have gold tracing out a three wave retracement higher,
reaching the 50% Fib level,
feeding into a narrative stream just at the wrong time.

When gold falls into wave [c],
that hyper inflation narrative will disappear too.
And then gold will be a screaming buy when popular opinion hates it.

Tomorrow;
Wave ‘v’ is now setting up for one more leg higher to complete five waves up.

CRUDE OIL.

CRUDE OIL 1hr.

CRUDE OIL 4hr.

CRUDE OIL daily.

Crude has now fallen in three waves off the recent high.
This pattern must develop further to the downside in order to call this wave [ii] rally over and done with.

Right now the price is too close to that upper limit at 66.67.
And I want to see a drop back below 62.90 at wave ‘iv’ to signal the turn is in.

Tomorrow;
Wave ‘ii’ may be tracing out an expanded flat correction here.
So watch for a lower high to build in wave ‘ii’ with a rise back into 65.90 again.

62.93 is the level to watch for a signal wave (i) is underway.

S&P 500.

S&P 500 1hr

S&P 500 4hr

S&P 500 daily.

No new high in the S&P either today.
I will admit that the decline off the recent high is looking corrective
so it may just be a matter of time before we run higher at this point.

In terms of the larger picture,
the price has fulfilled its requirements to complete the pattern in wave [v] with a three weave pattern higher.
And wave ‘5’ blue with an ending diagonal in place.
The risks at these highs are very real to me,
but the world at large sees no risk at all.

I have shown chart after chart over the last few weeks depicting the insane level of optimism and the insane levels of leverage that is in play here.
I know how this ends,
but what happens between now and the inevitable failure of this rally is foggy to me.
As St Paul once said to the Corinthians,
“For now we see through a glass, darkly; but then face to face:
now I know in part; but then shall I know even as also I am known.”

SILVER.

SILVER 1hr

SILVER 4hr.

SILVER daily.

Silver seems intent to make it to the 62% retracement of wave ‘A’ down in this ‘B’ wave rally.
The price is hanging just below that level now at 27.62 after a sharp rally back above the recent highs.
This rally opens up another possibility for wave ‘B’.
I have shown this interpretation as the main count this evening.

The trend channel in wave ‘B’ is well filled after todays rally.
Wave [c] of ‘B’ may already have five waves up complete.
And the low of wave [b] at 25.68 offers a clear signal level to begin wave ‘C’ down.

To sum it up,
wave ‘B’ is all but done here, so watch for a reversal to begin into wave [i] of ‘C’ very soon.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave [c] to top out at the trend channel line and reverse off that upper line in an impulsive manner.