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Good evening everyone.
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EURUSD
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EURUSD reached the previous second wave high at 1.1264 today.
There was an early run up this morning in anticipation of the Fed meeting,
and then this evening the market is selling off,
on the back of some such statement form the FED!
If we have completed wave ‘ii’ now,
Then wave ‘iii’ down should carry us lower again with a target at about 1.10.
Tomorrow;
Watch for the wave ‘ii’ high to hold and wave ‘iii’ down to continue.
A break of 1.1110 will confirm wave ‘iii’.
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GBPUSD
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It’s a similar reaction in Cable to EURUSD this evening.
GBPUSD is selling off in reaction to the FED meeting.
But this should prove to be the beginning of wave ‘iii’ of (iii) to the downside.
The price will have to break the wave ‘i’ low at 1.2865 to confirm wave ‘iii’.
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘iii’ to continue lower,
and begin to take out the minor supports in a more impulsive fashion now.
Wave ‘iii’ of (iii) should accelerate the price lower
and act to clear up the larger pattern.
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USDJPY
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USDJPY dropped to a slight new low this morning to complete wave ‘c’ of (ii).
Wave ‘c’ is a possible ending diagonal,
which has stopped at the 50% retracement level almost exactly.
And this evening the price has spiked higher again.
This may well be the beginning of wave (iii) up.
Wave ‘i’ of (iii) should break out above the recent high at 112.40.
And that should confirm wave (iii) has begun.
Tomorrow;
Watch for price to hold above the low at wave (ii).
A five wave rally in wave ‘i’ should follow.
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DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS
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The Futures hit the 26700 level overnight,
and its been all downhill since then.
It is getting hard to continue calling this a third wave up,
with the amount of retracements that are happening.
The market action is far choppier than one would expect in a third wave.
It is possible that the larger wave ‘5’ blue
is tracing out and ending diagonal pattern.
Even that pattern should yield a new all time high.
But it would account for a lot of the overlapping action of late.
We will just have to wait and see on that front.
Tomorrow;
Watch for the spike low to hold at wave (ii).
Wave ‘iii’ up should return higher for the rest of the week.
A break of 26310 will rule out this pattern.
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[_s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_ccap_gold)]
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GOLD
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The spike lower in the GOLD price today
is not is line with the bullish short term count I was working with.
I still believe this is a final decline in wave (c) of this correction.
But I have to allow for this wave (c) to play out.
I have shown a possible ending diagonal in GOLD also today.
A break of 1266 would be the minimum target for wave ‘v’ of (c).
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘v’ to break 1266 and confirm the ending diagonal.
Wave (c) of [ii] should complete in the area of 1250.
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U.S CRUDE OIL
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So far the decline off Tuesdays high has only traced out a three wave structure.
The price has rallied this evening again, with this in mind,
I have shown an alternate wave (ii) in a larger three wave pattern.
But even that count does not expect wave (ii) to rally much past 65.00.
And we should turn down in wave (iii) in the end anyway.
Tomorrow;
If we get a break of 62.27 again,
that will confirm the current wave count and we can expect wave (iii) to drop below 60.00.
A break of 64.61 will trigger the alternate wave (ii).
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[_s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_ccap_us10yr)]
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US 10 yr Treasuries.
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Bonds have sold off this evening after hitting the 124.00 level at the 62% retracement level.
This looks like a better completion setup for wave (ii).
And now we need the selloff to continue in five waves
and take out the low at 122.63 to confirm the market is turning down into wave (iii).
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘i’ of (iii) to push lower to the previous wave ‘v’ at 122.89.
We should see a 5/3 impulse wave lower develop off the wave (ii) high.
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SILVER
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I have shown the same idea for Silver as in Gold this evening.
Wave (c) pulled the price down again today,
and we are now looking at a possible ending diagonal in play.
The price is now at the lower trend line again
after recovering slightly off the lows of the session this evening.
We will have to wait now for the bullish signal to occur in wave ‘i’ again.
With initial resistance at 15.07.
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave (c) to find a low soon.
14.38 marks the Fibonacci 78.6 retracement level.
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S&P 500.
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The sell off in the S&P this evening has throw the cat among the pigeons.
At least it has ruled out last nights count.
I have shown a possible expanded flat wave (iv) grey as possibility.
With this evenings selloff coming in wave ‘c’ of (iv).
The alternate count is now low probability,
but possible none the less.
It shows the new all time high as the final high for wave (v) of [v].
If this is correct,
Then the market will sell off vigorously from here in a clear five wave down move.
If the price broke 2720 from here,
then we could call the top in place.
But for now I am open to wave (v) of [v] carrying us up towards the Fibonacci target at 2996.
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave (iv) to complete above 2907,
which is the wave (i) high.
Wave (v) should begin tomorrow.
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