Good evening folks, the Lords Blessings to you all tonight.

Everybody is long, bears are extinct.

A little math test!

David Rosenberg

@EconguyRosie

The U.S. economic emperor disrobed: nominal GDP up $554 billion (SAAR) in Q1 in the same quarter that government transfers boomed $2.25 trillion. Do the math on what things look like absent Uncle Sam’s wallet.

EURUSD.

EURUSD 1hr.

EURUSD 4hr.

EURUSD daily.

We are building a series of fourth wave lows which are acting as short term supports.
The first level is just below us at 1.2055,
and below that 1.1992.
If we start to break down below these levels again then I will start work on wave [b] to the downside.
I suspect wave ‘B’ blue will be a big zigzag correction in the end.
It is likely that wave [b] of ‘B’ will fall down to a double bottom at about 1.1700 again before wave [c] up rallies back into 1.22 again.
So we are looking at a long road to nowhere for another month or so as wave ‘B’ completes.

Tomorrow;
If wave (v) of [a] is now done,
then wave (a) of [b] should begin off these levels.
Watch for 1.2055 to break as wave ‘i’ of (a).

GBPUSD

GBPUSD 1hr.

GBPUSD 4hr.

GBPUSD daily.

Another day without a decline!
We have a very similar waiting game going on here in cable as in EURUSD.

Cable is still holding below the recent high at 1.4008 today.
The short term count shows a three wave correction higher in wave (ii).
But that wave (iii) decline is proving illusive at the moment.
Even though the action is very corrective to the upside in wave (ii).

So I am just going to have to wait and see if wave ‘i’ comes in tomorrow to begin this next leg down into wave [c].

Tomorrow;
Watch for a drop into 1.3822 again in wave ‘i’ pink.
1.4008 must hold.

USDJPY.

USDJPY 1hr.

USDJPY 4hr.

USDJPY daily.

Wave (iii) seems to have topped out today with a sharp spike higher in a fifth wave.
This brings us one step closer to that impulsive pattern higher in wave [i].

Interestingly,
todays high has broken above the wave [a] low of the previous decline at 109.00.
I am taking this as a nod in favor of the bullish count.
If the rally in wave [i] breaks the previous wave [b] high at 109.96,
this should be taken as confirmation that the larger wave ‘5’ is underway.

Tomorrow;
the price has fallen off the session high this evening and this is a signal that wave (iv) is now underway.
Watch for the low at 108.43 to serve as support for wave (iv).

DOW JONES.

DOW 1hr.

DOW 4hr

DOW daily.

Another sideways day in stocks which does tilt the balance in favor of the alternate count slightly.
Even though the price did break the yesterdays low labeled wave ‘i’ which complicates the alternate count slightly.

The rally this evening can still be interpreted as a three wave correction to the upside in wave ‘ii’.
So long as 34161 holds then this ‘i’ ‘ii’ pattern will stand.
But only a break of the lower bound of the range at 33680 will confirm the bearish count.
So I have to admit the ball is in the court of the alternate count at the moment.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave (ii) to hold at 34161.
Wave ‘iii’ down must start tomorrow if this bearish count is to hold.

GOLD

GOLD 1hr.

GOLD 4hr.

GOLD daily.

Todays spike lower has not confirmed the worst,
but it is a vote in favor of my short term bearish outlook.

I have shown the action today as a decline in waves ‘i’ and ‘ii’ to begin the larger wave (iii) down in blue.
Overall I am looking for a five wave decline into wave [v],
and if this count is correct,
then we should see a sharp decline next week in wave (iii) of [v].

Also,
todays low did break the wave (a) high at 1758,
again I am taking this as a hint that a larger pattern is brewing to the downside here.

Tomorrow;
Watch for the wave ‘ii’ high to hold below 1789.
Wave ‘iii’ should begin by tomorrow evening.

CRUDE OIL.

CRUDE OIL 1hr.

CRUDE OIL 4hr.

CRUDE OIL daily.

Wave ‘v’ of (c) must complete now at todays highs.
I think this correction in wave [ii] has gone on long enough
and todays action brought us to within a whisker of the 78.6% retracement level.
There is not much room left above us here to contain the correction in wave [ii],
so I am eager to begin the next phase in wave [iii] now.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘i’ of (i) of [iii] to begin with a five wave decline back into the trend channel again.
We should see another small lower high in wave ‘ii’ by Monday evening.

S&P 500.

S&P 500 1hr

S&P 500 4hr

S&P 500 daily.

A new all time high in the bag this morning follower by a spike lower once the market opened.
The session low actually broke the triangle low at that small wave ‘4’ of ‘v’ correction.
This does not mean that the top is in,
but I am intrigued by that rejection of a new high this morning.
An early taste of a shift towards the risk averse possibly.

As each day has gone by over the last few weeks,
the longer term charts veer closer and closer to bearish momentum signals again.
the daily chart has crested the top of its recent extreme high in MACD and RSI.
And the 4hr chart has completed and turned lower off a stark bearish divergence in place now for the last week.

Another signal not to be dismissed.

Tomorrow;
A break of 4120 will be the first target for any initial decline off this high.
Lets see if the price can top out in wave (c) tomorrow and head towards that initial target low.

SILVER.

SILVER 1hr

SILVER 4hr.

SILVER daily.

Three waves up to a lower high in wave (ii) completed at yesterdays highs as shown.
The decline off that high was quite sharp today,
and I have labelled this as wave ‘i’ and ‘ii’ of (iii) now in place.
This short term count is calling for wave ‘iii’ of (iii) to come in strong over the next two sessions.
There is no room for error above us now,
so we need to see some progress to the downside immediately to signal that this short term count is correct.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave (ii) to hold at 26.47.
Wave ‘iii’ is expected to start tomorrow.