Good evening to you all folks, and the Lord’s blessings to you all tonight.

David Rosenberg

@EconguyRosie

The Atlanta Fed’s NowCast is down to a puny +0.4% SAAR for Q1 real GDP, down from +1.3% a week ago. Even worse, real final sales was shaved to +0.9% from +2.7%. Growth recession now, actual NBER recession on its way.

EURUSD.

EURUSD 1hr.

EURUSD 4hr.

EURUSD daily.

EURUSD has dived well below the lower trend channel line of wave (v) grey now.
This can easily be viewed as a throw-over to complete wave (v) of [v].
The ‘spike’ rebound off the low is impulsive enough to be of interest as the beginnings of a reversal pattern.
But we will need follow through tomorrow to set that reversal pattern in motion.

Tomorrow;
Watch for the initial impulsive move higher off the wave (v) lows to break back into the trend channel again.

GBPUSD

GBPUSD 1hr.

GBPUSD 4hr.

GBPUSD daily.

Cable is actually starting to find some support at the 1.25 handle now.
The sharp drop over the last week is pretty overdone now it seems.
And we are due at least a correction higher into wave [iv].
the previous sideways consolidation area above 1.29 looks like a good target level for wave [iv] to reach.
We have 2 more trading days left this week,
so I would like to see an initial move off the low to begin wave (a) of [iv].

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave [iii] to hold at 1.2500 over the coming days.
Wave ‘i’ of (a) should push back above 1.2700 I suspect.

USDJPY.

USDJPY 1hr.

USDJPY 4hr.

USDJPY daily.

The pattern I am working on for USDJPY is tenuous to say the least!
But AS long as the highs at 129.10 continues to hold,
then I think we can allow for the possibility of a third wave decline to develop.
The pattern off the top is showing a series of 1,2 waves now,
so that third wave decline is due and should break below 126.90 to begin wave ‘iii’ down.

Tomorrow;
Watch for todays highs of 128.58 to hold at wave ‘ii’.
Wave ‘iii’ down should begin overnight.
A break of 126.90 again will signal wave ‘iii’ of (iii) is underway.

DOW JONES.

DOW 1hr.

DOW 4hr

DOW daily.

The Down made a very slight new low to break the 33150 level today and that seems to have completed wave ‘i’ down.
The rebound off the session low is in line with wave ‘a’ of ‘ii’ as shown.
So at this point I will be looking for a three wave rally to track higher in wave ‘ii’ over the coming days.
The initial target for wave ‘ii’ lies at 34120.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘b’ to form a small higher low above 33150 again.

GOLD

GOLD 1hr.

GOLD 4hr.

GOLD daily.

Gold broke 1890 again today and that final step lower seems to have completed a five wave pattern within wave ‘iii’ of (c) today.
The price is still holding below that level this evening,
but I am expecting a three wave correction higher in wave ‘iv’ to begin pretty soon.
I am looking at 1915 again for wave ‘iv’ to complete and then another decline phase in wave ‘v’ to drop back into that 1850 target area to complete wave (c) and [ii] next week.
It has been a long road to this point,
but it now seems like gold is coming to the end of its corrective road at wave [ii].
When that wave finally strikes over the next week,
I will turn my attention higher into wave [iii].

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘iv’ of (c) to begin a three wave correction higher into the 1915 area.

CRUDE OIL.

CRUDE OIL 1hr.

CRUDE OIL 4hr.

CRUDE OIL daily.

Another step higher in crude today but that wave ‘iii’ of (iii) rally is not a reality just yet.
There is another way of interpreting the action as a possible five wave rise off the wave (ii) low that is still ongoing.
So I will wait for tomorrows action to get a proper read on that idea.

Tomorrow;
Watch for the price to continue higher in wave ‘iii’ of (iii).
Crude should hold above this weeks low at 99.45 to hold with the wave ‘iii’ of (iii) count.

S&P 500.

S&P 500 1hr

S&P 500 4hr

S&P 500 daily.

The rise in the broader market today is quite corrective looking at the moment.
The action fits well with the idea of a second wave correction higher in wave ‘2’ if ‘iii’.
But I cannot rule out the alternate short term count either.
If the price breaks above 4307 again,
that will trigger the larger wave ‘ii’ idea.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘3’ of ‘iii’ of (iii) of [iii] to take over tomorrow and accelerate the market lower.
This wave should break below the 4000 level again if this count is correct.

And there is the rising probability of a ‘waterfall’ type move to the downside if the bearish count is correct.
4307 must hold.

SILVER.

SILVER 1hr

SILVER 4hr.

SILVER daily.

Downside momentum has slowed over the last few sessions,
that does suggest we are reaching at least a temporary low in wave (iii) of [iii] here.
I am looking for a correction higher in wave (iv) to begin soon that will track back higher to the 24.00 area again in three waves.
That wave will take the rest of the week to complete.
Wave [iii] will need another step lower to complete five waves down,
and the minimum target for that wave complete lies below 23.00 again.

The larger wave ‘3’ red is still underway here,
ad that will take another week to complete at least.
I am looking for wave ‘3’ to break below 22.00 again when all is said and done.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave (iv) of [iii] to turn higher in a corrective three wave pattern into the 24.00 handle again.