Good evening to you all folks, and the Lord’s blessings to you all tonight.

Back to it after the weekend and at the very minimum today was an ‘interesting trade’!
A few markets took a step into the deep in terms of the prevailing bearish wave counts,
we do not have confirmation of my nightmare scenario just yet,
but we are getting close on many fronts.
So lets get into it shall we.

EURUSD.

EURUSD 1hr.

EURUSD 4hr.

EURUSD daily.

I am very close to switching to that alternate count for the large degree wave [B].
At the moment the triangle is still a valid interpretation,
But if the price breaks below 1.0635 this week then the alternate count is triggered.

That alternate count is best viewed on the weekly chart above.
If that count is correct,
then wave (C) could rally back into the 1.2550 high of wave (A) over the next few months.
I know that seems hard to believe at the moment,
but I do think this is a very real possibility to look out for.

Tomorrow;
back to the main count and this low in wave (D).
The key level remains at 1.0635.
so right now all it will take is one fat finger to break that triangle wave count.

Watch for wave (v) of [v] to hold above 106.35.

If the alternate count is triggered,
then the low in wave (B) should form above 1.0350.

GBPUSD

GBPUSD 1hr.

GBPUSD 4hr.

GBPUSD daily.

Can anyone reading this imagine cable at parity?
Well this may be the week to start imagining that possibility.

I have been operating under the assumption that the current declines are part of a large degree wave ‘4’ correction.
And that wave ‘4’ was part of a five wave rally in wave (C) of [B]

That view was solid even last week.

But then todays action brings another leap lower!
And with that move the low of wave ‘4’ is now within a whisper of the high of wave ‘1’ at 1.2648.
If wave ‘4’ does not bottom now,
then the larger degree wave pattern will be completely shaken up for wave [B].
And we can consider wave [C] now underway.

On the weekly chart above you can see this alternate count in full.
The current decline can be viewed as wave (1) of [C].
Where wave (1) is still developing.

I will flesh out this alternate count on a video tomorrow.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘4’ red to hold above the wave ‘1’ high at 1.2648.
A break of that level will trigger the alternate count.

USDJPY.

USDJPY 1hr.

USDJPY 4hr.

USDJPY daily.

USDJPY declined back off the wave (ii) high today.
the count is not certain at the moment as wave ‘iii’ down should accelerate lower ideally,
but that has not happened yet at least.
I want to see wave ‘iii’ of (iii) turn lower tomorrow and break into the 126.50 area again before correcting in wave ‘iv’.
Wave (iii) down should trace out five waves down this week towards the 126.00 level to complete.

Tomorrow;
129.40 must hold.
Watch for wave ‘iii’ of (iii) to continue lower as shown.
A break of 127.46 will signal wave ‘iii’ of (iii) is in control.

DOW JONES.

DOW 1hr.

DOW 4hr

DOW daily.

There is a reasonable chance that wave ‘i’ down is still underway this evening even as the market rebounds off he lows.
In this scenario the low today is viewed as wave ‘3’ of ‘i’.
Wave ‘i’ should finish tomorrow either way,
and then we can expect a corrective rise into wave ‘ii’ as shown.

If this count is correct here,
then we are building towards an even larger decline in wave ‘iii’ of (iii) of [iii] this week.
And as I mentioned last week,
the minimum expected low for wave (iii) is in the area of 31800 where wave (iii) will break the low of wave (i).
If wave (iii) extends towards the 162% Fibonacci level then wave (iii) could break 30000 at the lows.
So as you can see,
the setup has real bearish potential.
It is time to be very vigilant of a ‘waterfall type’ move this week.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘i’ to complete and then correct higher in wave ‘ii’ towards 34000 again.

GOLD

GOLD 1hr.

GOLD 4hr.

GOLD daily.

Gold got hit hard today as the pattern builds in wave (c) down.
The price did not break the wave (a) low today at 1890.
but we did get very close,
and the price broke below that key 1900 handle again which was something the market was not expecting even a few days ago.
At the moment that wave (a) low is holding,
I suspect that level forms a key technical support for most trend followers,
So we might even see selling pressure build if that level breaks.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘iii’ of (c) to continue to trace out five waves down
and we should see a break of that 1890 level for wave ‘iii’ to complete below that level.

CRUDE OIL.

CRUDE OIL 1hr.

CRUDE OIL 4hr.

CRUDE OIL daily.

I have reworked the short term pattern in crude tonight to allow for another variation of the main and alternate counts.
The decline into todays lows is still a three wave pattern overall.
So it counts as a correction in wave (ii).

The action has opened another alternate possibility.
This tree wave decline can be viewed as wave (b) of [ii] also.
And in that case we will see a rally into 110.00 again to complete wave (c) of [ii].
and then wave [iii] down can begin.

Tomorrow;
The both wave counts now call for a rally into at least 110 over the coming days.
Watch for wave (iii) of [c] to push higher in five waves as shown.
Todays lows at wave (ii) must hold to stick with the main count.

S&P 500.

S&P 500 1hr

S&P 500 4hr

S&P 500 daily.

The market is catching a bid this evening after the twitter announcement.
I do have one though on that development.
It is in regards to the coming midterm elections in the U.S.
If twitter actually does go back to a free speech platform now,
the radical left can kiss goodbye to one of their biggest narrative building tools,
that is crushing the opposing viewpoint.

As for the action today,
I suspect this rally will disappear tomorrow as wave ‘ii’ of (iii) tops out.
Resistance comes in at 4350,
I don’t think wave ‘ii’ will threaten that level,
but we will see.

Tomorrow;
Watch for a corrective lower high to build in wave ‘ii’ of (iii) below 4350.
A break of 4200 again will signal wave ‘iii’ is underway.

SILVER.

SILVER 1hr

SILVER 4hr.

SILVER daily.

Further declines in silver has forced me to rethink the short term count.
There is a chance that wave [iii] down is now in play here as the price continues to step lower and hold below the key wave ‘1’ low at 23.95.
Wave (iii) of [iii] does not yet have a complete five wave internal pattern,
so I will be looking for another drop early tomorrow into the 23.30 level to complete that wave.

Tomorrow;
WAtch for wave ‘v’ of (iii) to complete with one more step lower to break 23.39 again.
If this count is correct,
then we will see a sideways consolidation in wave (iii) over the coming days.