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Good evening to one and all.
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EURUSD
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Despite a further decline in EURUSD today in line with the wave count,
The alternate count can still be possible,
if we view the decline off wave (ii) at 1.1324 as a five wave move into todays lows.
Any retracement towards 1.1260 again will trigger that alternate count.
And wave ‘iii’ of (iii) will have to wait for another week.
Back to todays action,
The decline is labelled as wave ‘3’ of ‘iii’ of (iii).
So the spike lower today fits well with this interpretation.
The decline should continue to the area of 1.1000 over the coming days.
Tomorrow;
1.1260 must hold from here to stay with this count.
Watch for wave ‘iii’ to continue in five waves towards 1.1000.
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[_s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_ccap_gbpusd)]
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GBPUSD
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Cable continues it’s limp lower and is now trading below support at 1.2959.
The downside action is going to have to pick up pace soon if wave (iii) is in fact underway.
If not,
I will have to re-think this short term count.
Tomorrow;
Watch for price to push towards 1.2772 in wave ‘iii’ of (iii).
Price should hold below 1.3019.
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[_s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_ccap_usdjpy)]
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USDJPY
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USDJPY is pulling higher this evening in a nice impulsive looking move.
This may well be the beginning of wave ‘iii’ of (iii) that I’ve been looking for.
The price has just broken above the recent high at 112.16 again,
and if the short term count is correct,
this rally should continue up towards the upper trend channel line over the coming week.
Tomorrow;
111.65 must now hold at wave ‘ii’ pink in order to rule out the alternate count.
Watch for wave ‘iii’ to continue higher for the remainder of the week.
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[_s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_ccap_dow_jones)]
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DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS
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The DOW is off slightly today in a corrective looking form.
The price is likely correcting within wave ‘iii’ up.
A rally tomorrow towards that all time high at 26920,
will be in a third wave within wave ‘iii’ pink.
Therefore wave ‘iii’ itself should trace out a five wave internal pattern.
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘ii’ to hold at 26458.
this correction should complete and be followed by a sharp spike higher.
Ideally wave ‘iii’ of (iii) will create that new all time high,
and then we should see a general decline in momentum into the final high at wave ‘5’ blue.
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[_s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_ccap_gold)]
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GOLD
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The final low in GOLD yesterday touched the lower trendline at 1266.56.
Today trade reversed higher off that trend line.
The early signs are again positive,
but as always we need five waves higher to confirm wave [ii] is done.
And then we can begin to work to a low risk entry point again in wave ‘ii’ of (i) of [iii].
If the price rallies from here and takes out the 1310 level again,
Then we can be fairly confident that the low is in.
Tomorrow;
Watch for a continuation higher in wave ‘i’.
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[_s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_ccap_crude)]
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U.S CRUDE OIL
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Crude is down off the highs today,
but so far we only have a three wave decline into todays lows.
This suggests a correction in wave ‘4’ of ‘v’.
The price must hold above the wave ‘1’ high at 64.61 for this short term count to remain valid.
If we do see a continued decline in five waves from this point,
which breaks 63.00 at the previous wave ‘iv’.
Then we are on for a reversal down into wave (3) again.
The the price must trace out a 5/3 move to a lower high to confimr the top is in.
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘5’ to create one more high to complete the larger pattern.
Then we can look lower again.
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[_s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_ccap_us10yr)]
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US 10 yr Treasuries.
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The 10YR has traced out a three wave correction higher over the last week,
and has now filled the trend channel on the short term chart.
This correction is either wave ‘ii’ pink
or wave (ii) grey as shown by the alternate count.
Either way you count it,
a decline in wave (iii) is called for from here.
Tomorrow;
The recent high at 123.90 must hold for the current wave count to remain valid.
Price should decline tomorrow in wave (iii).
A break of 1.2263 will confirm that wave (iii) is underway.
And wave (iii) should break below 121.00 at a minimum.
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[_s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_ccap_silver)]
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SILVER
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Silver has pushed higher off Tuesdays low at 14.73.
That low now marks wave (ii) blue.
And if this corrective phase is over,
then wave (iii) should carry higher from here over the coming months.
The likely target for wave (iii) lies at about 18.50 or so.
this is where wave (iii) reaches a Fibonacci 161.8% of wave (i).
The short term job remains the same.
We need a five wave rally from here in wave ‘i’ to push above resistance again.
Tomorrow;
Watch for the low at 14.73 to hold and a rally in wave ‘i’ to begin.
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[_s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_ccap_sp500)]
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S&P 500.
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The S&P has traced out a three wave correction off Tuesdays high into todays lows.
And this evening the market is rising again into the close.
This action suggests that wave ‘iv’ of (iii) is complete.
And wave ‘v’ of (iii) is now underway.
If so,
then tomorrow should see a new all time high
and a rally to close out wave (iii) of [v] of ‘5’.
Tomorrow;
The low for wave ‘iv’ lies at 2926.
Watch for wave ‘v’ to hold above this level and rally to break above 2941.
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