Good evening folks and the Lord’s blessings to you.

Just as a reminder, this week is a short trading week as the market will be closed on Friday for good Friday.

EURUSD

EURUSD 1hr.

EURUSD 4hr.

EURUSD daily.

EURUSD is holding up quite well overall this week even though the price should be to be turning down into wave [ii] green.
the correction in wave [ii] must progress lower to hit that initial support at 1.1150 to complete wave (a).
and at the moment the action is frustratingly flatlined just below the wave [i] high.

I am suggesting that the action has stalled in wave ‘b’ of (a) in a possible running flat correction.
And wave ‘c’ must turn lower towards support once wave ‘b’ is complete.

So the wave count is still focused on wave [ii] green at the moment,
but the internal pattern of wave [ii] is proving difficult as always.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘c’ of (a) to turn lower again and the drop into that support level at 1.1147.

GBPUSD

GBPUSD 1hr.

GBPUSD 4hr.

GBPUSD daily.

Cable is finally making a move off the highs of the week at wave (b) today.
I am looking for a drop into that 1.30 handle again in wave ‘i’ of (c) to get this wave count back on track again.
So far the price has dropped back into the channel off the highs,
so I need some follow through to confirm this pattern now.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘i’ pink to fall into the 1.30 handle in five waves.
The pattern will form a lower high early next week to confirm the move into wave (c).
with the target for wave (c) at 1.2708.

USDJPY.

USDJPY 1hr.

USDJPY 4hr.

USDJPY daily.

USDJPY continues to bound along the 142.00 level today as the price now forms a double bottom.
There is nothing to shown for this weeks action at all now.
I am looking at a possible triangle within wave ‘5’ to explain that sideways move,
and now the double bottom comes to complete wave ‘5’.
The hunt for a turn higher into wave ‘i’ is still on.
and as long as we hold above 139.60,
this count will remain valid.

Tomorrow;
Watch for a break above 146.50 to confirm wave ‘i’ is underway.

DOW JONES.

DOW 1hr.

DOW 4hr

DOW daily.

The DOW has stepped lower this evening after stopping short of breaking that wave [iv] high.
So,
the current (i) (ii) count to begin wave [v] down remains intact at the moment.
This count really needs a follow through to break 38400 again at the wave (i) low to bring the action back in line with the wave count I am considering here.
So far that remains illusive,
but I am going to give this idea another day at least to see if wave (iii) of [v] does take hold.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave (ii) to hold and wave (iii) to continue pushing lower to confirm this wave [v] idea.

GOLD

GOLD 1hr.

GOLD 4hr.

GOLD daily.

The action in gold this week is forming what is commonly known as a ‘blow off top’ now.
I did not expect the euphoria to last this long for sure.
I was convinced by the recent drop that brought the price down into the trend channel with quite a rapid move.
This rally has retraced that decline completely again.
And now the price is back at all time highs again.

Of course there is now every reason in the world for gold to rally according to the headlines.
And I won’t argue with the reasoning.
I will just suggest that a rally in anything into a deflationary setup is a risky prospect.

In fact I think the size of this rally is mostly driven by speculation.
Another rush to buy any rally that is happening anywhere.
I think this will end in tears also.

Tomorrow;
Wave [v] is holding onto this rally with a commanding grip at the moment,
this will break,
but I am just going to wait and see now.

CRUDE OIL.

CRUDE OIL 1hr.

CRUDE OIL 4hr.

CRUDE OIL daily.

The price action today has invalidated last nights count now.
And I am reverting back to the previous wave (b) idea now.
Three waves up in wave (b) is now in place.
And wave (c) down should bring the price lower over the next few days.

There is a possibility that wave ‘4’ is developing faster than expected also.
So if we see a break above the wave [a] high again that will signal wave ‘4’ is closer to completing than I am suggesting here.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave (c) of [b] to turn lower in five waves to break 58.00 again.

S&P 500.

S&P 500 1hr

S&P 500 4hr

S&P 500 daily.

The S&P has managed another step lower today and the wave (ii) lower high is safe for the moment.
Wave (iii) has not been confirmed yet though,
If we see an acceleration lower over the coming days that breaks the wave (i) low and challenges the 4800 level again,
then I will be confident again with this count.
This is a welcome move tonight,
but there is much to do as wave (iii) down develops.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave (iii) to develop lower in five waves with a quick break of the wave (i) low at 5110 again to give this count a boost.

SILVER.

SILVER 1hr

SILVER 4hr.

SILVER daily.

Silver has moved towards the 78.6% retracement level of wave (i) today,
but the overall structure of this rally is still in three waves,
even if the rally is extended now.

I have labelled wave ‘c’ of (ii) as a five wave structure this evening.
and the pattern is solid.
this idea may allow for another pop to complete a five wave move within wave ‘5’ of ‘c’ at the 78.6% Fib.
And from there I would like to see a sharp move lower into wave ‘i’ of (iii) as shown
So that decline might have to wait until next week if this pattern is correct.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘5’ of ‘c’ of (ii) to close out this correction at 33.25.