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Hi there everyone,

Another day is done so lets pick apart the action to see where we stand.

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EURUSD.

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EURUSD 1hr.

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EURUSD is getting closer to triggering that alternate count again!

The price is getting close to threatening that lower support at 1.0768.
A break of that level will invalidate the current short term count in wave [c] green.
And I will switch to the idea that wave ‘3’ down has already begun off the high at 1.1147.

Tomorrow;
Lower support at 1.0768 must hold,
and wave (iii) of [c] must rally immediately in order to continue with the bullish outlook.

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GBPUSD

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GBPUSD 1hr.

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The wave ‘ii’ high at 1.2573 may well be in place now after todays trade.
The price has fallen in three waves so far off that wave ‘ii’ high.
And if wave ‘iii’ is underway now,
that means we should see an acceleration to the downside tomorrow.
I would like to see wave ‘iii’ break below the 1.2300 level at a minimum.
And then a consolidation in wave ‘iv’ will start early on Monday most likely.

Tomorrow;
Watch for todays three wave decline in wave ‘iii’,
to develop further to the downside in a five wave structure.
1.2573 must hold now as wave ‘iii’ continues.

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USDJPY.

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USDJPY 1hr.

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Wave [] is still developing to the upside today.
Although the price is a little stuck in the initial setup phase.
Waves (i) and (ii) of [c] seem complete now,
Wave (ii) held a higher low above 106.90 and rallied again this evening.
The price must break above the interim high at 108.07 early tomorrow to confirm wave (iii) of [c] is underway.
The target remains at 109.38 for wave [c] to complete.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave [b] to hold at 106.90.
And wave (iii) to break above 108.07.

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DOW JONES.

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DOW 1hr.

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The DOW is holding that lower high today at wave (ii) as shown.
This is early days in the development of another bearish signal off that wave (B) high,
but this is a good start for sure.
We have a solid invalidation level for this count at 24040 – the wave (B) high.
And as you know,
I am looking for a larger degree wave [i] to develop off that high next week.

If wave (ii) is now complete at 23650,
then wave (iii) must hold below that level and continue lower tomorrow.
Wave (iii) is expected to hit the previous wave [iv] low at 22634 cash.
And wave (v) of [i] should break that level convincingly.

That scenario will be enough to confirm wave (B) is done,
and then a lower high at wave [ii] will offer the best low risk opportunity to position to the downside in wave [iii].

Tomorrow;
I want to see an acceleration to the downside begin in wave (iii) of [i].
I know that options trading halts tomorrow,
That can cause a stagnation in the markets from time to time,
so it is possible that the price will hold in limbo for a couple days before wave [i] really takes over.

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GOLD

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GOLD 1hr.

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There is a little hint in the price action today that may favor the alternate count right now.

This correction off the high is developing is much more slowly than I would expect in the main wave count.
The price decline is much shallower than that large wave [ii] is calling for.
This is only wave (a) of [ii] for sure,
but even wave (a) should make more progress that what has been achieved so far.
I am even surprised that price is holding above the 1700 level.

So,
with that in mind I think it is worth considering the alternate wave (ii) scenario as a possibility.
If price continues to hold above the 1700 level tomorrow,
and we get a rally back to a new high,
that will definitely favor the more bullish alternate count.

For the moment I will stick with the more conservative main wave count.

Tomorrow;
watch for wave ‘c’ of (a) to drop towards support at 1670.
Wave (b) should begin off that level and retrace higher in three waves.

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CRUDE OIL.

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CRUDE OIL 1hr.

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Crude is now closing below $20 this evening after a very weak trade all day.
The price action today looks more like a small correction within wave [iii].
And because of that,
I have reverted back to the count from earlier in the week.

so the current action is viewed as wave (iv) of [iii].
Wave (iv) may not be complete yet either as I have shown with the small trend channel.
Once it does complete though,
we should then see another drop into wave (v) of [iii],
before a larger correction higher begins in wave [iv] of ‘5’.

Tomorrow;
watch for wave (iv) to complete with a small pop into the upper trend channel line at about 20.90.
Wave (v) of [iii] should complete early next week.

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S&P 500.

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S&P 500 1hr

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The S&P is also holding the lower high at wave (ii) today.
This is a good sign that wave (B) is complete at the recent high of 2852.
But just like the DOW,
I need to see an acceleration lower in wave (iii) over the next few days
just to tilt the odds in favor of the bearish outlook.

Wave (iii) down should fall into the previous fourth wave low at 2646,
before correcting higher again in wave (iv) again.
And if this happens,
we should have a completed pattern in wave [i] down by the middle of next week.

All my focus now is on building that larger bearish signal off the wave (B) high in waves [i] and [ii].
that will be the clearest signal that wave (C) down is taking over.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave (iii) of [i] to begin with a break of 2759.

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SILVER.

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SILVER 1hr

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Silver refuses to give up the fight and fall into wave ‘5’ this week.
I was expecting wave ‘5’ to come in strong this week,
but that has not happened so far.
And just like gold,
the lack of downside progression is a nod towards the more bullish alternate count.
But I would like to see a break of 16.38 before I adopt that bullish stance.

Tomorrow;
I am still going to work with the current bearish count for the moment.
I will go into the bullish count in more detail in tomorrows video.

Watch for wave [i] of ‘5’ to take over and push lower towards 13.77.
A break of that level will reaffirm the bearish short term count.

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