Good evening to you all folks, and the Lord’s blessings to you all tonight.

As you know, tomorrow marks good Friday, the day we traditionally mark the death of Messiah Yeshua, or Jesus as the western world knows Him.

As a result I will not be updating tomorrow night as the market will be closed. So that is it until Monday night, I wish you all a blessed and a very happy resurrection weekend.

EURUSD.

EURUSD 1hr.

EURUSD 4hr.

EURUSD daily.

I am no fan of the euro project,
but even I think this currency is well oversold and is due a break at this point!
The price broke below the 1.0806 level today and with that move the pattern in wave (D) gets re-written.
The overall triangle wave [B] is still the main pattern that I am working within here.
and that pattern requires another rally in wave (E) towards the 1.20 area for this pattern to be completed.
that remains the base case scenario here,
but the invalidation line for this triangle pattern lies at 1.0635.
And we are still way to close for comfort now.

Monday;
The week has gone by and another opportunity to turn this market higher has been lost.
A break above 1.0923 again will give me a little breathing room now.

GBPUSD

GBPUSD 1hr.

GBPUSD 4hr.

GBPUSD daily.

The decline in cable today is enough to call wave ‘ii’ complete.
So I want to see a rally begin in wave ‘iii’ of (i) next week to finally turn this pair higher.
The action this week was encouraging in this regards,
but I need more confirmation in the way of wave (i).

Monday;
Watch for wave (ii) to hold above 1.2972.
Wave ‘iii’ of (i) must now rally to take out the wave (iv) high again.

USDJPY.

USDJPY 1hr.

USDJPY 4hr.

USDJPY daily.

I have given up on the expanded flat wave (2) idea this evening.
Even after the recent decline being so convincing in that regard.
The rally off that low at 121.26 just fits the impulsive pattern too well to be disregarded anymore.
At this point I just have to wait and see if a top develops next week in wave ‘5’ of (1).
I will need to see a pretty substantial move lower to suggest wave ‘A’ of (2) has begun again.
the first target level lies at 121.28 again.

DOW JONES.

DOW 1hr.

DOW 4hr

DOW daily.

The Dow broke that very tenuous short term count from last night with a spike higher this morning.
The previous wave ‘ii’ count is now back in play,
and even that count is suggesting that the correction higher is now over.
the price rallied to reach the price area of the previous wave ‘4’ of ‘i’ today,
and now we have another spike lower off the session high.
The wave ‘ii’ high also topped just below the 62% retracement level of wave ‘i’.
So again we have the dominos lining up in favor of a market reversal next week.

Monday;
Watch for wave ‘iii’ dow to take control and fall back below 34000 to signal the top is in for wave (ii).
Wave ‘iii’ of (iii) has real potential to cause a major decline in the index which should carry down below 32000 area at a minimum.

A break of 33700 again will be a big vote in favor of this bearish count.

GOLD

GOLD 1hr.

GOLD 4hr.

GOLD daily.

Nothing to report in gold today apart from a stuttering market at the top of a three wave correction higher.
Next week will reveal a whole lot about the next few months trading I think.
A drop into wave (c) will likely take a month to complete.
So I will be looking for wave ‘i’ of (c) to fall back below 1915 to signal that wave (c) has begun.

Monday;
Wave ‘i’ down will be confirmed with a drop into 1915.
Until that happens I am just going to have to be patient here.

CRUDE OIL.

CRUDE OIL 1hr.

CRUDE OIL 4hr.

CRUDE OIL daily.

Crude is following the path higher into wave [c] pretty well this week although there is more to do next week to complete this pattern.
I was looking for a larger correction into wave (ii) to give more proportion to the structure,
but that was not to be yet at least.

Todays rally is labelled wave ‘i’ of (iii),
and if this count is correct,
then we will see a continued rally next week to complete wave [c] with a break of 117 I suspect.

Monday;
Watch for wave (ii) to hold at 101.70.
Wave (iii) should continue higher in five waves as shown.

S&P 500.

S&P 500 1hr

S&P 500 4hr

S&P 500 daily.

The smaller correction is actually holding in the S&P today as wee did not see a break above 4472.
Add to that the decline again this evening,
and we have a recipe for a third wave decline to take over on Monday.
Wave ‘iii’ of (i) should fall back into the 4220 level as this level marks the wave [i] low off the all time high.
I would like to see that level now take over as the resistance to a new decline phase into wave [iii].
So next week is lining up to be very interesting indeed.

Monday;
Watch for wave ‘iii’ to continue lower and break 4379 to confirm this count.

SILVER.

SILVER 1hr

SILVER 4hr.

SILVER daily.

Waiting for new decline phase to begin in the metals is starting to hurt my confidence and my contrarian spirit!
But there is one thing I cant deny,
that is the clear three wave pattern higher screaming at me in wave [ii] green.
the decline off that wave [ii] high is not big enough to confirm a top yet,
but if the wave [ii] pattern is correct,
then wave [iii] will begin next week,
and that confirmation will come quickly indeed.

Monday;
Watch for wave [ii] to hold at 25.85 and wave (i) of [iii] should fall back into the 24.50 area when complete.