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Good evening to you all, 

I hope you are all suffering this economic lock-down as best you can!

As my grand mother would say, this too shall pass!

So lets get on with the low down on the days action.

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EURUSD.

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EURUSD 1hr.

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I am not overly impressed with the progress of EURUSD today.
The price is inching higher,
but the action is not in keeping with an acceleration in a third wave.

It is still possible that wave (iii) of [c] comes in stronger tomorrow,
so I will keep stay focused on that possibility for now.
But,
I the price turns back down and breaks 1.0830 again,
that will be enough to trigger that alternate count.
I have filled out more of that alternate count this evening circled in red.

Tomorrow;
watch for 1.0830 to hold and wave (iii) of [c] to continue higher.

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GBPUSD

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GBPUSD 1hr.

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I have shown a slightly different interpretation for wave [iv] this evening.
The action is getting very extended right now in cable,
so if we don’t get a turn lower very soon,
I will have to rethink the current short term count.

This evenings short term count for wave [iv] shows a larger wave (a) off the low.
Wave (b) completed a clear flat correction.
And now wave (c) is running higher in five waves again as you would expect.
This count calls for a decline to begin in wave [v] very soon.

Tomorrow;
watch for wave ((c) to close out and then wave (i) of [v] to turn lower again.

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USDJPY.

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USDJPY 1hr.

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USDJPY came very close to confirming the decline into wave (iii) of [c] today.
But so far the low of wave (b) at 106.90 is holding.
If that low breaks and the price accelerates lower,
then we will know that wave (iii) of [c] is underway.
However,
if the price rallies back above 108.45 at the wave (i) low,
that will signal a larger wave ‘B’ is underway as shown by that other alternate count circled in red.
In that case,
we can expect wave ‘B’ to complete a flat correction,
and then wave ‘C’ will decline into about 104.00 to complete the larger wave (E).

Tomorrow;
the key to the path ahead lies at 108.45.
As long as the price holds below that level,
then I can expect the price to continue as suggested in the main wave count.

Watch for wave (iii) of [c] to continue lower tomorrow.

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DOW JONES.

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DOW 1hr.

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The DOW made a very slight new high in wave ‘C’ today.
The price reached 24040 this afternoon but the that was the high of the session.
So we seem to be hitting a wall now in terms of upside momentum.
The price action is taking every longer to make smaller and smaller gains.
It is just a matter of time before the momentum switches direction altogether,
and then we begin a turn down into wave [i] of ‘1’ of (C).
This next move lower will be an exceptionally large crash type scenario.
So I am willing to wait,
and let the initial move off the high of wave (B) show its hand first.
In saying that;
We should have the first move lower in wave [i] completed by the end of the week I think.

Tomorrow;
The rally in wave (B) is all but done apart from the final unfolding of the top of wave [v] of ‘C’.

Watch for the momentum to switch to the downside tomorrow as wave [i] down takes over.
A break of 22634 will confirm wave [i] has begun.

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GOLD

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GOLD 1hr.

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Gold has come back off the highs of the session this evening.
After reaching a top of 1746 this afternoon,
the price then fell $28.00 in a reasonable sharp move lower.
This move does indicate that the final high for wave (v) may now be in play.
and if that is the case,
Then tomorrow should see a move back below 1700 again to begin wave (a) of [ii] in the main count,
or the alternate wave (ii)scenario.

The main count will allow a drop back into the 1560 range in three waves in wave [ii] green.
The alternate count calls for a much shallower drop in wave (ii) blue,
that wave should bottom in the area of 1640 at the previous fourth wave.

tomorrow;
Watch for wave (a) of [ii] to begin.
The pattern in wave [ii] could take any number of forms now,
so I will just have to wait and see how the initial drop plays out to narrow down the possibilities.

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CRUDE OIL.

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CRUDE OIL 1hr.

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Crude continued lower today as expected in wave [iii] green.
The price has not yet traced out a five wave decline in wave [iii],
so we should expect more downside over the coming days,
until a clear five wave pattern emerges to complete wave [iii] of ‘5’ as shown.

I have also shown a possible alternate pattern for wave ‘4’ red,
which involves a larger flat correction.
If the price does not break to a new low below 18.97 in wave [iii] green.
Then we could be looking at this alternate wave ‘4’ count as the next best interpretation.

Tomorrow;
Watch for a break of 18.97 again in wave [iii] of ‘5’.
Price should hold below 24.50 at wave (ii) blue.

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S&P 500.

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S&P 500 1hr

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The S&P is holding out at the highs of wave (B),
as this correction gets a stay of execution for one more day!

The price is showing all the signs of an aged pattern now,
upside momentum is dead,
the Fibonacci target has been met,
and the Elliott wave structure is pretty much complete.
So wave (B) is on borrowed time that much is clear.

Yesterdays drop failed to develop into a larger five wave more lower.
The price seems to have completed a larger wave (iv) grey as shown,
and then todays rally pushed higher in another five wave move into todays highs.

Wave [v] has a completed five wave structure internally now,
so the next move to look for is a reversal lower into wave [i] of ‘1’ of (C).

Tomorrow;
We should see the beginning of an impulsive decline in wave [i] by the end of the week.
Watch for a break of 2719 again to indicate that wave [i] has begun.

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SILVER.

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SILVER 1hr

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The rally in silver is looking very tired now.
the price action today is to the upside,
but the internal action is labored and overlapping.
It is possible that this is an ending diagonal wave ‘v’ pink now unfolding.
That would explain the overlapping nature of the action alright.

As I mentioned last night,
I will continue to hold with the idea that we are turning lower into wave ‘5’ red,
as long as the low of wave ‘1’ at 16.38 holds.

Even if the alternate count is the correct interpretation now,
the action suggests today that a correction lower is imminent at least.

Tomorrow;
Watch for the price to turn lower into wave [i] of ‘5’,
or wave [a] of ‘2’ in the alternate count.

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