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Good evening all you fine people, I hope you are well.

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EURUSD.

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EURUSD 1hr.

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The wave structure in EURUSD is progressing to the upside overall,
although todays spike lower has forced a rethink of the short term pattern.

I have labelled that spike lower as wave ‘c’ of (ii) of [c].
Where wave (ii) traced out an expanded flat correction over the last few sessions.

This pattern is still bullish in the short term,
as wave ‘2’ should top out above 1.1150.
That level marks the high of the previous wave [a].
And wave [c] should hit that high at least.
That level also marks the area of the 62% retracement level.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave (iii) of [c] to rally again.
A break of 1.0990 will signal that wave (iii) is in force.

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GBPUSD

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GBPUSD 1hr.

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Cable moved lower today off the high at 1.2648 of wave [iv].
The drop is very impulsive looking to the downside,
and I have labelled it as wave ‘i’ of (i) of [v].

If this count is correct, then wave [v] has a long way down to go!
The minimum target for wave [v] lies at 1.1399 at the low of wave [iii].

But first we must see a bearish impulse wave completed below 1.2648.
A three wave correction to a lower high at wave ‘ii’ will do that.

Tomorrow;
Watch for that wave [iv] high to hold at 1.2648.
Wave ‘ii’ has already begun and it should complete a three wave correction.
A drop back below 1.2434 will signal wave ‘iii’ has begun.

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USDJPY.

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USDJPY 1hr.

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I have had a complete rethink of the action in USDJPY today,
and with that I have switched to the alternate count this evening.

The move higher in the early trade today,
is a strong indication that we have a larger wave ‘B’ in play now,
rather than the previous interpretation which viewed wave ‘A’ continuing to the downside.

The fact that the price failed to break that previous low also pointed towards the alternate count.
We now have a double bottom in place,
and I have labelled that low as wave [b] of ‘B’.
Wave [c] of ‘B’ should continue higher off that level and hit 109.38 at a minimum.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave [c] to hold above 106.90 tomorrow and then rally into 109.38 in five waves over the coming days.

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DOW JONES.

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DOW 1hr.

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The DOW moved lower today in a pretty meaningful fashion.
The decline started in the after market trade,
and continued in the futures this morning.
The mains session opened with a gap down and then hit 23230 at the low.

The internal action has a nice structure to it,
meaning I can count a five wave move in the price action off the high when the futures and cash market are combined.

I have labelled this move down as wave (i) of [i] into todays lows at 23230.
If wave (i) is complete,
then the rally this evening must be wave (ii).
I will have to wait and see how wave (ii) unfolds tomorrow,
If the price moves sharply lower again to break 23256,
That will signal wave (iii) of [i] has begun.
And wave (iii) should break the previous fourth wave low at 22634 cash by the end of this week.

Tomorrow;
Step by step we are moving closer that larger bearish signal off the wave (B) high.
So watch for 24040 to hold and wave (iii) of [i] to continue lower.

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GOLD

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GOLD 1hr.

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After putting in an impressive rally over the last week which topped out at 1746.
Gold has now cooled off that high again today.
The downside action was expected today but the actual degree of the decline is still up for grabs!
Todays drop is either part of wave [ii] green or wave (ii) blue alternate.
The drop off the high also looks corrective in nature,
so the next wave will likely be a flat pattern and trace out a 3,3,2 internal structure.

Wave ‘a’ of (a) seems to be complete at todays lows.
Wave ‘b’ has rebounded off that low and is still underway.
Wave ‘c’ of (a) should follow lower later on tomorrow to complete wave (a) down.

If the alternate count is in fact correct,
then wave (ii) should find a final low at about 1642,
before then heading higher in wave (iii) alternate.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘c’ of (a) to continue lower towards 1650 or so over the coming days.
Wave ‘c’ should trace out a clear five wave pattern.

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CRUDE OIL.

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CRUDE OIL 1hr.

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I am still in two minds over the short term count in crude oil.
The price completed a double bottom at todays lows.
And after thinking on the action today,
I have marked this low as wave [iii] green now complete.

Wave [iv] is now expected to rally off these lows in a three wave pattern.
And then wave [v] should drop again next week to complete the larger wave ‘5’.

The alternate count is becoming a little more interesting after todays double bottom.
This may be an internal wave [b] low of the larger wave ‘4’ as shown circled in red.
Wave [c] of ‘4’ would then rally back into the previous highs at 28.80 again,
to complete a larger three wave correction in wave ‘4’.

If the price rallies from here and breaks 25.00 again,
that will trigger the alternate count.

tomorrow;
For the moment I am happy to stick with the main wave count.
Watch for wave [iv] green to correct higher in three waves for the rest of the week.

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S&P 500.

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S&P 500 1hr

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The S&P gaped lower this morning also after completing wave [v] of ‘C’ at 2852 yesterday.

This action does favor the idea that wave ‘C’ and wave (B) are now complete at that high.
And if we see a continuation lower to break 2646 later in the week,
that will confirm wave (iii) of [i] is now underway.

The main focus now is to build that large bearish signal off the high,
in wave [i] and [ii] green as shown.
Once that is done,
the market will be poised for another acceleration lower in wave [iii] of ‘1’.
And wave [iii] should break below 2400 before that wave is complete.
the larger wave ‘1’ blue should carry the market back below the 2200 level again.

The stakes for the stock market could not be much higher right now.
So it is time to stay focused on wave [i] and [ii] now.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave (ii) to complete a lower high below 2852.
A break of 2760 again will signal wave (iii) has begun.

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SILVER.

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SILVER 1hr

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Silver has not fallen in a significant manner off the high at wave ‘4’ just yet.
This does leave the door open for a challenge of that important resistance level at 16.38.
And if that happens,
then I will switch to the more bullish alternate count.

I have shown a slightly different interpretation of the correction higher in wave ‘4’ today.
This now count shows a clear 3,3,5 internal structure,
the the price has completed wave ‘4’ as a flat correction this week.
The outlooks is still for a decline in wave ‘5’ to begin soon.
A drop below 13.77 should confirm that idea.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave [i] of ‘5’ to drop back into support at 13.77 before Friday.

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