Good evening to one and all.

The Lord’s Blessing’s to you all again tonight.

Can I start by saying this,
when was the last time the Fed ever mentioned in its forecast that it was expecting a recession in the year ahead?
Now I know what most will say about this,
they can see the data,
and they are just stating the facts as they are on the ground.

Well,
can I suggest this;
The reason Powell mentioned a recession at all,
is because that is exactly what they have been trying to engineer all along with this rate hiking cycle.
The only way to kill off monetary inflation,
is by inviting monetary deflation, ie, a recession.
He was just showing his hand yesterday, that’s all.

And now,
just like the natural forces of a pendulum prevents it from ever stopping at the center point.
We are going to get much worse than he bargained for,
when the monetary pendulum swings all the way over to a deflationary collapse.

It wont matter how many times he cuts rates at that point,
and it wont matter how much credit he pushes into the economy.
it will all be sucked into the black hole of a deflationary credit collapse.

That’s cycles for ya!

On with the show!

https://twitter.com/bullwavesreal

EURUSD.

EURUSD 1hr.

EURUSD 4hr.

EURUSD daily.

EURUSD has managed to levitate above the previous wave [i] high which changes things a little.
Wave [ii] is now classified as an expanded flat correction.
and this three wave rally in wave (b) should still give way to a five wave decline in wave (c).
It is proving very difficult to call the top of this wave (b) rally,
but in hindsight,
that is the function of every ‘b’ wave,
to create a false sense of security before the turn happens into wave (c).

Tomorrow;
Wave (c) has completed its pattern but the final high has yet to show itself in wave ‘c’ of (b).
The price has managed to break above the upper trend line of the wedge in wave ‘c’.
The first signal that wave (b) is complete will come when the price reverses back below the rising wedge again.

GBPUSD

GBPUSD 1hr.

GBPUSD 4hr.

GBPUSD daily.

we have a double top scenario in cable tonight.
The price did break above the previous high this morning.
but the action is very sluggish and really does look like a labored new high.
An exhaustion at the top maybe?
We will see soon I expect.

the pattern has been changed to show an ending diagonal into this new high.
I must admit that the internal pattern is not ideal for wave (c).
But I can call this a possible expanded wedge pattern,
rather than the usual wedge you might expect in an ending diagonal.
the internal wave structure fits well though,
so I think we can go with this.

Tomorrow;
Wave ‘v’ has completed three waves up so far.
And we have a very slight new high today also.
so that is enough to call this pattern done.
Lets see if we can manage a turn before the end of this week.

USDJPY.

USDJPY 1hr.

USDJPY 4hr.

USDJPY daily.

Another step lower today has ruled out the previous pattern I showed last night.
But todays action has managed to suggest an even better pattern for this bullish setup.
I have shown a series of 1,2 impulse waves higher off the recent lows.
The decline off wave (i) is a clear three wave pattern so far.
And If this pattern is correct we should see a rally into wave (iii) of [iii] over the coming week.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave (ii) to hold at 132.00.
Wave (iii) will be confirmed with a break above 134.05 again at the wave (i) high.

DOW JONES.

DOW 1hr.

DOW 4hr

DOW daily.

I have moved the short term wave count up by one degree tonight to allow me to track the pattern better as it goes on.

I will admit to you that I am getting a little bit worried now that the market is back threatening the previous wave [ii] high at 34500 again.
A break of that level should not happen in this scenario.
All the previous points I made about the setup of this market are still valid.
but the rally in wave ‘c’ of (ii) has persisted none the less.

We have a five wave pattern in place for wave ‘c’ of (ii).
But the market refuses to stop yet and price punched above the upper trend channel line again this morning.
I know this ends in tears for all involved here.
But I cannot say with certainty that this insane rally will stop now or continue.
I’m afraid I do not know the future,
but I can see the signs.

Tomorrow;
All I can do is wait for a compelling reversal to come and boost the chances of building a viable lower high to begin wave (iii) down.
And tomorrow is another day.
I really do not want to see a break of that wave [ii] high at 34500.
I want to see wave ‘i’ begin immediately and retrace most of that wave ‘c’ rally.
A break of 32770 remains the first signal level to suggest the top is in here.

GOLD

GOLD 1hr.

GOLD 4hr.

GOLD daily.

The wedge is now closed in wave ‘5’ of ‘v’ tonight.
The top today completed a three wave pattern higher in wave ‘5’ as you might expect in an ending diagonal.
We have that lower high in momentum in place on the 4hr chart.
And the market is bubbling with prospects for a continued rally now.
The headlines are getting very flowery,
and gold is now the solution to all of life’s woes it seems.
Of course central banks buying gold hand over fist is the cherry on top for further rallies to come.

Needless to say that central banks alway buy at the top,
and sell at the bottom.

Like I said before,
this is the very sentiment of a top,
and it is here in spades.
But the price has not made its turn off the top yet.

The hype on gold and the death of the USD is so extreme now that I am tempted to turn even long term bearish on gold now.
We are near an all time high again,
a high that was rejected a year ago with a similar sentiment extreme surrounding that high also.
There is a rising probability that we will see a similar selloff after this high also.
Especially since the inflation story is now dead in the water.

But I can talk all I want,
the price has not peaked yet.
And I am talking out of my hat until that happens.

Tomorrow;
I await that turn down off an exhausted fifth wave top to break below the wedge again.

CRUDE OIL.

CRUDE OIL 1hr.

CRUDE OIL 4hr.

CRUDE OIL daily.

Wave (v) is trundling along today and it seems a five wave rally may be done already.
If the current decline continues and breaks back below 81.50 again that will signal a possible top is in for wave (v) blue.
I am going to hold on with that five wave pattern for wave (v) of [c] until it is ruled out.
But I will keep one eye on that wave (iv) low at 79.35 just in case.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘v’ of (v) to turn higher and top out near 83.50.

S&P 500.

S&P 500 1hr

S&P 500 4hr

S&P 500 daily.

The only short term pattern that fits the action this week is a possible complex running flat wave ‘4’.
Wave ‘5’ of ‘c’ made a very slight new high at the close this evening.
And now the market is really too close to call here as the price is very close to the previous wave [ii] high at 4195.
A break of that level will not completely rule out the bearish options here,
but it would be a hard pill to swallow for me,
that’s for sure!

Tomorrow;
Five waves up in wave ‘c’ is done.
I want to se an end to this rally now.
So a break of 4040 again at the wave ‘a’ high is the first level to watch.

SILVER.

SILVER 1hr

SILVER 4hr.

SILVER daily.

Maybe I am trying too hard here,
but I have squashed all the rally off the march lows into the short term chart.

I have switched up the count by one degree tonight also,
but that does not change the premise.
We have a full pattern here in wave ‘1’.
And there is a major correction coming into wave ‘2’.

I cannot call the day of the top,
well at least that has eluded me so far anyway.
But this looks like a good point for a top to occur now.

Tomorrow;
Watch for that final wave (v) blue to close out and reverse.
a break of 24.50 again will signal wave [a] of ‘2’ has begun.