UPDATE: S&P – wave (iii) of [i] to the downside should break 2646 to confirm wave [i] is in force.
Good evening folks.
Back to the grind stone again for a new week!
I pray you are all safe and well and that the week goes spiffingly for you!
On with the show.
EURUSD.
EURUSD 1hr.
EURUSD 4hr.
EURUSD daily.
The action in EURUSD is consolidating today
without spiking into the rally in wave (iii) that I expected.
The rise off wave [b] has created a three wave rally so far.
This action can be viewed as wave (iii) underway,
with a smaller degree wave ‘i’ and ‘ii’ of (iii) complete.
Wave ‘iii’ of (iii) should rally off these levels and accelerate beginning tomorrow.
The price must hold above 1.0830 in this case.
I am aware of the fact that the price has only rallied in three waves so far,
so the alternate count for wave ‘2’ blue could still be possible.
If we break 108.30 again,
then I will have to switch back to that alternate count.
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘iii’ of (iii) to continue higher back above 1.1050 at a minimum.
1.0830 must hold.
GBPUSD
GBPUSD 1hr.
GBPUSD 4hr.
GBPUSD daily.
Cable ‘v’ of (c) did break above that target level today at 1.2486.
This completes a clear five wave pattern in wave (c),
adn with that,
the larger wave [iv] is now complete.
So now I think we can begin to look lower again into wave [v] over the coming week.
The first indication that the turn into wave [v] has begun,
will be a break of 1.2161 at the previous fourth wave low.
A break of that level will signal wave (i) of [v] is underway.
Tomorrow;
Watch for a final high in wave [iv],
and wave (i) of [v] to begin the turn lower again.
USDJPY.
USDJPY 1hr.
USDJPY 1hr.
USDJPY daily.
The price is dropping today in USDJPY which is in line with the outlook for the week ahead.
Ths action seems to be accelerating also.
So I am going to stick with the idea that wave (iii) of [c] is now underway.
I do want to see a break of 106.90 soon,
a break of that level will confirm that wave [c] is now in force.
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave (iii) of [c] to continue lower in five waves,
and break initial support at 106.90 at a minimum.
Price should hold below 108.45.
DOW JONES.
DOW 1hr.
DOW 4hr
DOW daily.
This week will prove pivotal for the stock market according to the short term wave count.
My main attention is focused on building a bearish lower high in waves [i] and [ii] over the week ahead.
The DOW is lower this evening after a spike high out of the open this morning.
So as it stands,
we have a lower high in place off Thrusdays highs.
I have labelled this lower high as a possible wave (i) and (ii) of [i] now done.
This evenings drop can be viewed as wave (iii) of [i] now underway,
but the price must hold below 23698 at the wave (ii) high
in order for this short term count to remain valid.
The first level of interest in terms of the market reversal into wave ‘1’ down,
lies at the previous fourth wave low at 22634 cash.
A break of that level in a clear five wave decline,
will signal wave [i] down has begun.
Tomorrow;
watch for wave (iii) of [i] to continue lower and break initial support at 22634.
GOLD
GOLD 1hr.
GOLD 4hr.
GOLD daily.
Today we got a pretty solid break of the resistance at 1700.
And the price is rising to close at the highs of the session also this evening.
This action is at least a vindication of the main wave count for wave [i] of ‘5’.
But I am becoming more attracted by the possibilities for the main alternate count
which is shown circled in red.
The main wave count views wave [i] as complete now,
And the correction that will follow in wave [ii],
should create a bullish higher low above 1560 over the coming weeks.
The alternate count is much more bullish,
but it will also allow for a corrective decline this week.
That decline in wave (ii) of [iii] of ‘3’ should be much shallower,
possibly finding support at 1640,
and then rallying back into an acceleration phase in wave (iii) of [iii] of ‘3’ over the next month or so.
We should know by the end of this week which of these outlooks is more fitting.
Tomorrow;
watch for wave (v) to close out and wave (a) of [ii] to begin.
CRUDE OIL.
CRUDE OIL 1hr.
CRUDE OIL 4hr.
CRUDE OIL daily.
My chart is still out of sync with the actual market price today.
I will have an alternate chart tomorrow, but for the moment at least,
this wave count is still valid and the declines are in line with a five wave.
Todays lows at 2254 is regarded as wave [i] down of a larger fifth wave decline.
Wave ‘5’ blue should carry the price down into the mid teens
to complete another larger degree third wave,
labelled wave (3) green on the daily chart.
Wave ‘5’ blue is set to take the rest of this month to develop.
But once we are complete wave ‘5’ of (3),
then crude is likely to enter a large ranging wave (4).
That wave will bring with it a few intermittent rallies that could double the price in short order.
So there is still upside left in crude over the coming months.
Back to this week.
I want to see the price return lower again in wave [iii] of ‘5’ over the coming days.
Wave ‘5’ may be substantially complete by the end of this week.
S&P 500.
S&P 500 1hr
S&P 500 4hr
S&P 500 daily.
Today the S&P has just brushed off the FEDs big announcement that it will buy anything that is not nailed down.
( I have a shed full of crap that I want to get rid of, maybe I will get a few quid for it if I tweet Jay Powell? )
The price has created a lower high today in wave (ii) of [i].
This short term count calls for a resumption of the selloff,
as wave (C) gets underway.
Wave [i] of ‘1’ of (C) is expected to take most of this week to develop.
The initial support lies at 2646 at the previous fourth wave low.
And if we see a break of 2646 that will signal that the larger wave [i] has in fact taken over.
Tomorrow;
Last Thursdays high at 2818 marks resistance in the short term.
That level should hold as wave [i] down develops.
Watch for wave (iii) of [i] to break 2646.
SILVER.
SILVER 1hr
SILVER 4hr.
SILVER daily.
I am still in two minds about the potential this week for silver.
There is a large disconnect between the two main precious metals these days.
Especially if I look at this high as a corrective fourth wave as shown.
I am tempted to turn bullish in the short term,
but I will have to see a break of that all important wave ‘1’ low at 16.38 to get confirmation on that alternate count.
So,
for the moment I will hold off on the bullish alternate.
Tomorrow;
If we see a turn lower and a break of 13.77 again,
that will favor the main count.