Good evening folks and the Lord’s blessings to you.

Tariffs on tariffs off, or paused or maybe back on again – who actually knows!
Another wild day across the board,
so lets get into it.

I’m laughing to myself tonight,
there is an hour left in the session this evening as I sit down to write.
and I am thinking that everything I type in the next while may well be blown out of the water before the bell rings!

As I say from time to time,
I am learning to hold onto my thoughts lightly, especially this week!

EURUSD

EURUSD 1hr.

EURUSD 4hr.

EURUSD daily.

EURUSD is back on track for the correction in wave (iv) down today.
Wave ‘b’ topped out at lunch time today after breaking the upper trend line,
and now wave ‘c’ is underway with a hard turn down this evening.

Tomorrow;
the minimum target for wave ‘c’ of (iv) lies at 1.0876 and the lower end at about 1.0780.
Once we hit that range I will look for wave (iv) to complete.
Watch for wave ‘c’ to break 1.0876 at a minimum.

GBPUSD

GBPUSD 1hr.

GBPUSD 4hr.

GBPUSD daily.

Wave ‘b’ created a higher low today and now the price has rebounded again to begin wave ‘c’.
Wave (b) blue is still expected to hit 1.2900 near the 50% retracement level to complete.
And the spike higher this evening seems to be the beginning of that wave ‘c’ rally.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘c’ to hit 1.2865 at a minimum.
with the upper end target at 1.2960 where the 50% retracement will be reached.

USDJPY.

USDJPY 1hr.

USDJPY 4hr.

USDJPY daily.

USDJPY made a new low at 144.00 today which completes wave ‘v’ of (c) of [ii].
The price rallied sharply this evening and I am suggesting this is the beginning of wave ‘i’ of (i) of [iii] now.
The rally has just broken above the previous wave ‘4’ high as I write,
which is a good sign that wave ‘i’ is in play here.
So USDJPY must now create a bullish higher low and continue to turn the trend higher over the coming weeks if this count is correct.

Tomorrow;
Watch for that wave [ii] low to hold at 144.00 as wave (i) develops higher.

DOW JONES.

DOW 1hr.

DOW 4hr

DOW daily.

The DOW managed a big rally this evening after tariffs were moved or dumped or paused or shifted or something.
It is almost impossible to keep track of what’s happening here!
So lets see if this charts stands up by the close of trade.

The sharp rally is almost too good to be true in a way!
It seems like a short covering scramble to be honest.
So this may well go as quick as it came!

I am looking at another possibility for the pattern also tonight.
If you see the weekly chart above.
I am tracking wave (C) of [A] down now.
This should trace out five waves down overall.
and I have set the covid lows at the target for wave [A].

There is also another idea for wave [A] as a three wave pattern lower.
And in that case,
we could see a more complex decline in a series of three wave patterns to reach that goal.
I have shown this idea on the daily chart.

The outcome is the same,
but the road to that target is a bit bumpier!

Tomorrow;
Watch for that wave [i] low at 40650 to hold as wave [iv] completes.
Wave [v] down should return lower and make a new low near 35000 again to complete wave ‘1’.

A break of that resistance at 40650 will favor that alternate wave ‘A’ and ‘B’ idea.

GOLD

GOLD 1hr.

GOLD 4hr.

GOLD daily.

A rally in gold today in wave (c) of [ii] broke above the target at the 50% retracement level.
And now the price is holding just above the 62% retracement level as I write.
This rally is more than enough to complete wave [ii],
and I am looking for wave [iii] down to begin from here.
Wave (i) of [iii] should fall back below 3000 ideally.
And the larger wave [iii] will fall into the 2800 support.

Gold is now turning into a large degree wave [4] correction overall.
And because of that,
we have the same uncertainties regarding internal pattern in play here.
There is every possibility that the initial mover lower will be a series of three wave patterns.
So I am going to keep that in mind as we go forward here.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave [ii] to hold that lower high for this count to remain valid.
Wave (i) of [iii] should begin tomorrow.
And I am looking for a break of 3000 again to signal that wave [iii] is underway.

CRUDE OIL.

CRUDE OIL 1hr.

CRUDE OIL 4hr.

CRUDE OIL daily.

A rebound in crude came along with the bounce in everything else today!
It just goes to show how strong the correlation is across markets in general.
Fear drives everything down.
Greed adds to momentum in every direction.
And reversals bring with then the inevitable short covering that pushes the rally.

This is the biggest problem with a financialized economic system.
everything is a trade,
everything is graft and skimmed to death.
And price discovery is a myth,
or a fairy tale told in university to make market operators feel good about themselves!

But here we are!

I am suggesting that wave ‘3’ completed at the lows early today,
and wave ‘4’ is now underway.
the rally today is labelled wave [a] of ‘4’,
and we should see a drop in wave [b] over the coming days.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave [b] to fall in three waves to form a higher low above 55.00.
The price must hold below 65.00 for this pattern to remain valid.

S&P 500.

S&P 500 1hr

S&P 500 4hr

S&P 500 daily.

The rally in the S&P today has thrown the wave count up in the air overall.
The same dilemma exist here as in the DOW regarding the much larger overall pattern in wave in wave ‘iv’ blue on the weekly chart.
So I will proceed with the same step by step approach here,
and the pattern will reveal itself overtime.

For the moment,
I can still keep the main count for wave (iv) of [iii] as long as the price holds below 5487.
But the size of this rally can also fit the next higher degree wave [iv] green.

the market has traced out three waves up even after todays rally,
so this counts as a correction.
And we will see how the next move into wave [iii] plays out before the end of this week.
the next few days will tell us a lot about the larger pattern that is developing here.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave (v) of [iii] to turn lower again with a minimum target at 4800.

SILVER.

SILVER 1hr

SILVER 4hr.

SILVER daily.

Silver has broken the wave ‘a’ high at 30.80 today and this is the minimum target for this correction.
Wave ‘c’ has also completed a five wave internal pattern,
which suggests that we are close to a top in wave ‘c’ of (ii) now.

Wave (iii) down will turn lower again before the end of this week.
And wave ‘i’ should break 29.00 again to signal that the turn has begun into wave (iii).

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave (ii) to create a top very soon and then wave ‘i’ of (iii) will turn down again with an initial target at 29.00.